TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.15×

SD @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+1 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +8

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 22 · vs Ray ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 18 · vs Thornton → edge: Francisco Lindor

ATTACK Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 68

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +350 C ●●●○○

2 Carson Benge +700 D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 42

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets — D ●●○○○

3 Xander Bogaerts +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Francisco Lindor: 9.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Francisco Lindor ✶ vs Ray Edge +350 0.196 · 91.5 · 9.1% 23.1% 20.3% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France COOL vs Thornton Edge +425 0.223 · 92.3 · 9.5% 7.7% 13.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Carson Benge vs Ray +700 0.143 · 89.5 · 8.0% 25.0% 12.7% F B O D 44

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Thornton +525 0.171 · 90.5 · 9.9% 23.1% 13.1% F B O D 49

· — Brett Baty vs Ray — 0.116 · 89.8 · 8.5% 25.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Thornton — 0.184 · 87.6 · 8.0% 16.7% 12.3% F B O D 45

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Ray Edge +575 0.144 · 86.4 · 7.6% 18.2% 10.3% F B O D 42

· — Bo Bichette vs Ray Edge +525 0.120 · 89.3 · 7.0% 15.4% 8.1% F B O D 39

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Thornton Edge +700 0.109 · 88.6 · 7.3% 15.4% 8.0% F B O D 37

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Thornton Edge — 0.143 · 92.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 15.9% F B O D 41

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Thornton +750 0.076 · 87.4 · 5.7% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 30

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Ray Edge +370 0.180 · 90.1 · 11.7% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 46

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Thornton Edge +330 0.196 · 90.8 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 48

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Thornton Edge — 0.117 · 87.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

· — A.J. Ewing vs Ray +750 0.128 · 89.7 · 8.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.1% ← leak BRK 29.1% OFF 3.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ty France R Edge

10.3% 10.5% 10.0% 10.3% C 51 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L

13.6% 10.7% 6.8% 11.3% D 49 +525

Manny Machado R Edge

12.0% 6.1% 9.3% 10.0% D 48 +330

Gavin Sheets L

9.9% 6.0% 1.7% 7.3% D 45 —

131

Fernando Tatis R Edge

9.8% 13.6% 15.9% 11.5% D 41 —

164

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.2% 4.6% 3.4% 6.2% D 37 +700

188

Freddy Fermin R Edge

3.0% 5.3% 9.1% 4.0% D 33 —

196

Jake Cronenworth L

4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 3.7% D 30 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.1% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.8% ← leak BRK 35.3% OFF 17.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.5% 8.6% 6.5% 9.9% C 51 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

17.0% 15.5% 17.4% 16.5% D 46 +370

106

Carson Benge L

7.2% 9.4% 6.7% 7.6% D 44 +700

119

Marcus Semien R Edge

9.6% 2.1% 7.1% 6.9% D 42 +575

135

Brett Baty L

8.1% 12.7% 4.0% 8.3% D 41 —

150

Bo Bichette R Edge

5.0% 10.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 39 +525

169

A.J. Ewing L

8.6% 11.3% 2.4% 8.1% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.8% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Sheets Lindor Benge Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Ray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Francisco Lindor +350 · 51

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph out 77°F open

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

7:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

8:10p

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 77°F, wind 9 mph S (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 51 C +425 COOL 58 0.223 92.3 9.5% 18.8%vs LHP 392 15.7% 7.7% 13.2% 38

2 Jackson Merrill 49 D +525 WARM 68 0.171 90.5 9.9% 11.5%vs LHP 412 15.3% 23.1% 13.1% 39

3 Manny Machado 48 D +330 COOL 76 0.196 90.8 9.4% 15.4%vs LHP 397 17.5% 0.0% 11.1% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 45 D — WARM 97 0.184 87.6 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.9% 16.7% 12.3% 21

5 Fernando Tatis 41 D — HOT 131 0.143 92.4 10.1% 28.6%vs LHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 42

6 Xander Bogaerts 37 D +700 HOT 164 0.109 88.6 7.3% 5.3%vs LHP 400 8.5% 15.4% 8.0% 32

7 Freddy Fermin 33 D — WARM 188 0.117 87.6 6.0% 14.3%vs LHP 382 2.9% 0.0% 7.3% 17

8 Jake Cronenworth 30 D +750 COOL 196 0.076 87.4 5.7% 14.3%vs LHP 389 2.6% 7.7% 6.7% 41

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor ✶ 51 C +350 · 53 0.196 91.5 9.1% 18.2%vs LHP 397 13.1% 23.1% 20.3% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 46 D +370 · 88 0.180 90.1 11.7% 20.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 18

3 Carson Benge 44 D +700 · 106 0.143 89.5 8.0% 20.0%vs LHP 401 10.0% 25.0% 12.7% 38

4 Marcus Semien 42 D +575 COOL 119 0.144 86.4 7.6% 12.0%vs LHP 391 11.9% 18.2% 10.3% 32

5 Brett Baty 41 D — WARM 135 0.116 89.8 8.5% 0.0%vs LHP 397 7.1% 25.0% 8.9% 16

6 Bo Bichette 39 D +525 · 150 0.120 89.3 7.0% 18.5%vs LHP 389 9.0% 15.4% 8.1% 41

7 A.J. Ewing 36 D +750 WARM 169 0.128 89.7 8.0% 12.5%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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