TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.78×

LAA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 12 mph out 90°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+20 ↑

7:10p

+19 ↑

8:10p

+19 ↑

9:10p

+17 ↑

10:10p

+16 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +20

Best of game Mike Trout conv 20 · vs Javier ⟷ Cam Smith conv 23 · vs Klassen → edge: Mike Trout

ATTACK Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 97

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +320 C+ ●●●○○

2 Zach Neto +400 C+ ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe +525 C ●○○○○

FADE George Klassen RHP · LAA

leak 34

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +575 C+ ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +400 C+ ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mike Trout: Match 24.7% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Cam Smith vs Klassen +575 0.172 · 89.4 · 10.9% 22.2% 23.3% F B O C+ 61

· LAA Mike Trout ✶ COOL vs Javier +320 0.199 · 90.4 · 12.0% 15.4% 24.7% F B O C+ 65

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Klassen +400 0.213 · 89.4 · 9.9% 10.0% 18.4% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Klassen +575 0.189 · 88.3 · 7.3% 9.1% 17.0% F B O C 55

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Javier +400 0.186 · 89.4 · 10.2% 7.7% 16.7% F B O C+ 60

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Klassen +500 0.163 · 86.0 · 7.3% 10.0% 12.7% F B O C 52

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Klassen Edge +225 0.299 · 94.5 · 13.6% 0.0% 19.3% F B O B 70

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Javier Edge +525 0.147 · 89.4 · 9.0% 8.3% 10.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Klassen +950 0.121 · 85.8 · 3.5% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 41

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Javier Edge +700 0.113 · 87.5 · 4.7% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 42

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Klassen +750 0.151 · 85.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Klassen — 0.142 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 49

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Javier +625 0.131 · 88.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 48

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Javier — 0.122 · 87.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.8% BRK 22.8% OFF 16.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Mike Trout R

15.0% 22.4% 11.1% 16.0% C+ 65 +320

Zach Neto R

14.1% 7.9% 9.8% 11.7% C+ 60 +400

Josh Lowe L Edge

11.9% 5.0% 6.2% 9.0% C 52 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Vaughn Grissom R

8.5% 6.2% 0.0% 6.4% D 48 +625

Oswald Peraza R

6.1% 6.9% 10.3% 7.0% D 47 —

125

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.6% 3.5% 0.0% 2.4% D 42 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Javier's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.2% ← leak BRK 27.2% OFF 24.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.8% 22.7% 10.0% 17.6% B 70 +225

Neutral · 4

Christian Walker R

8.1% 10.4% 13.9% 9.5% C+ 63 +400

Cam Smith R

9.5% 14.9% 17.2% 11.5% C+ 61 +575

Jeremy Peña R

4.1% 6.9% 10.0% 5.4% C 55 +575

Isaac Paredes R

7.3% 3.1% 1.9% 5.4% C 52 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Yainer Diaz R

6.1% 3.0% 6.5% 5.1% D 49 —

Jose Altuve R

5.8% 4.8% 0.0% 5.0% D 46 +750

129

Christian Vazquez R

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 41 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.2% usage) carries Klassen's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Walker Smith Peña

Legend

attack side — vs Javier fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Cam Smith +575 · 61

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.19× Wind 12 mph out 90°F retractable

+20

↑

12 mph · out

91°F

7:10p · peak

+19

↑

12 mph · out

89°F

8:10p

+19

↑

12 mph · out

87°F

9:10p

+17

↑

11 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

84°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.78× 90°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout ✶ 65 C+ +320 COOL 10 0.199 90.4 12.0% 23.4%vs RHP 409 15.5% 15.4% 24.7% 31

2 Zach Neto 60 C+ +400 COOL 21 0.186 89.4 10.2% 18.5%vs RHP 402 15.3% 7.7% 16.7% 33

3 Josh Lowe 52 C +525 WARM 52 0.147 89.4 9.0% 16.7%vs RHP 397 9.8% 8.3% 10.1% 18

4 Vaughn Grissom 48 D +625 COOL 75 0.131 88.1 7.6% 17.9%vs RHP 390 8.6% 0.0% 11.7% 29

5 Oswald Peraza 47 D — WARM 83 0.122 87.6 7.8% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.6% 0.0% 10.2% 15

6 Nolan Schanuel 42 D +700 · 125 0.113 87.5 4.7% 9.1%vs RHP 375 6.7% 8.3% 7.2% 40

vs George Klassen · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 70 B +225 · 5 0.299 94.5 13.6% 26.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 33

2 Christian Walker 63 C+ +400 COOL 13 0.213 89.4 9.9% 25.7%vs RHP 392 18.1% 10.0% 18.4% 29

3 Cam Smith 61 C+ +575 WARM 18 0.172 89.4 10.9% 19.2%vs RHP 408 12.7% 22.2% 23.3% 21

4 Jeremy Peña 55 C +575 COOL 36 0.189 88.3 7.3% 29.5%vs RHP 385 15.2% 9.1% 17.0% 33

5 Isaac Paredes 52 C +500 COOL 49 0.163 86.0 7.3% 17.1%vs RHP 377 11.9% 10.0% 12.7% 39

6 Yainer Diaz 49 D — COOL 69 0.142 87.7 7.3% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.1% 0.0% 12.3% 21

7 Jose Altuve 46 D +750 COOL 89 0.151 85.3 7.3% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 31

8 Christian Vazquez 41 D +950 WARM 129 0.121 85.8 3.5% 15.6%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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