TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.95×

ATL @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+5 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +6

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 19 · vs Mahle ⟷ Matt Olson conv 35 · vs Matthews → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 93

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens +425 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell +500 D ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 88

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +290 B ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +425 C ●●●○○

3 Ozzie Albies +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Matthews Edge +290 0.287 · 92.6 · 13.1% 38.5% 32.5% F B O B 72

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Matthews +425 0.149 · 91.2 · 11.7% 23.1% 18.4% F B O C 51

· — Kody Clemens COOL vs Mahle Edge +425 0.232 · 92.4 · 9.0% 18.2% 19.0% F B O C 54

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Matthews — 0.197 · 90.4 · 12.1% 0.0% 25.9% F B O C 50

· — Byron Buxton COOL vs Mahle +290 0.274 · 90.3 · 11.1% 0.0% 19.3% F B O C 59

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Matthews Edge +370 0.175 · 91.6 · 12.2% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Josh Bell vs Mahle Edge +500 0.167 · 90.0 · 8.5% 23.1% 13.9% F B O D 46

· — Brooks Lee vs Mahle Edge +850 0.178 · 87.7 · 5.1% 16.7% 12.3% F B O D 42

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Matthews Edge +525 0.172 · 87.0 · 7.0% 16.7% 11.7% F B O D 46

· — Royce Lewis vs Mahle +400 0.186 · 90.2 · 9.2% 7.7% 12.4% F B O D 47

· — Luke Keaschall COOL vs Mahle +950 0.106 · 84.7 · 4.7% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 31

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.193 · 90.7 · 11.0% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 48

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Matthews Edge +525 0.163 · 90.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· — Trevor Larnach COOL vs Mahle Edge +625 0.156 · 87.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Matthews +950 0.130 · 86.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.128 · 87.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· — Victor Caratini vs Mahle Edge — 0.106 · 89.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.4% ← leak BRK 34.4% OFF 13.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.7% 12.3% 12.2% 15.4% B 72 +290

Neutral · 3

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.9% 19.5% 4.3% 13.2% C 52 +370

Austin Riley R

13.5% 14.1% 5.6% 12.7% C 51 +425

Ronald Acuna R

14.0% 11.1% 15.4% 13.5% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Michael Harris L Edge

6.5% 13.7% 15.0% 10.5% D 48 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.8% 1.8% 2.9% 4.4% D 46 +525

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.7% 7.8% 6.1% 7.5% D 45 +525

142

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.8% 7.5% 2.5% 5.6% D 40 —

174

Mauricio Dubon R

2.8% 5.6% 4.8% 3.9% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.4% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.5% ← leak OFF 26.3% BRK 7.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Byron Buxton R

19.2% 13.8% 14.3% 17.1% C 59 +290

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.1% 10.0% 19.4% 11.6% C 54 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

14.9% 10.7% 7.4% 12.2% D 47 +400

Josh Bell S Edge

10.9% 5.2% 12.5% 9.9% D 46 +500

122

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.9% 1.1% 0.0% 3.6% D 42 +850

146

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.9% 5.0% 8.8% 7.7% D 39 +625

191

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.8% 5.7% 11.8% 6.7% D 32 —

193

Luke Keaschall R

4.1% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.5% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Albies Clemens Bell Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson +290 · 72

Austin Riley +425 · 51

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

6:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 76°F, wind 5 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B +290 WARM 2 0.287 92.6 13.1% 34.8%vs RHP 407 25.4% 38.5% 32.5% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 52 C +370 COOL 50 0.175 91.6 12.2% 25.5%vs RHP 403 16.2% 0.0% 12.6% 44

3 Austin Riley 51 C +425 HOT 56 0.149 91.2 11.7% 18.3%vs RHP 407 9.7% 23.1% 18.4% 28

4 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 63 0.197 90.4 12.1% 23.7%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 39

5 Michael Harris 48 D — COOL 72 0.193 90.7 11.0% 23.2%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 36

6 Ozzie Albies 46 D +525 · 95 0.172 87.0 7.0% 14.0%vs RHP 386 14.4% 16.7% 11.7% 37

7 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D +525 · 99 0.163 90.6 9.1% 19.0%vs RHP 389 8.9% 0.0% 11.0% 20

8 Dominic Smith 40 D — COOL 142 0.128 87.8 7.9% 15.1%vs RHP 392 8.2% 0.0% 8.3% 9

9 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +950 COOL 174 0.130 86.9 6.6% 10.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 38

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 59 C +290 COOL 25 0.274 90.3 11.1% 31.8%vs RHP 402 27.1% 0.0% 19.3% 10

2 Kody Clemens 54 C +425 COOL 42 0.232 92.4 9.0% 19.3%vs RHP 391 17.7% 18.2% 19.0% 30

3 Royce Lewis 47 D +400 · 79 0.186 90.2 9.2% 16.7%vs RHP 400 15.9% 7.7% 12.4% 36

4 Josh Bell 46 D +500 · 93 0.167 90.0 8.5% 19.0%vs RHP 405 11.2% 23.1% 13.9% 44

5 Brooks Lee 42 D +850 · 122 0.178 87.7 5.1% 20.3%vs RHP 371 14.9% 16.7% 12.3% 36

6 Trevor Larnach 39 D +625 COOL 146 0.156 87.5 7.4% 15.2%vs RHP 397 9.4% 0.0% 9.0% 27

7 Victor Caratini 32 D — · 191 0.106 89.6 7.0% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 15

8 Luke Keaschall 31 D +950 COOL 193 0.106 84.7 4.7% 10.4%vs RHP 371 6.5% 8.3% 8.0% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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