TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.24×

MIA @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 7 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+5 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Owen Caissie conv 15 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 25 · vs Gibson → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 85

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Owen Caissie +525 C ●●○○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +475 C ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja +1000 D ●○○○○

FADE Cade Gibson LHP

leak 25

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +225 B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +390 C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 34.6% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Gibson +225 0.289 · 93.3 · 9.1% 15.4% 34.6% F B O B 70

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Wheeler Edge +525 0.207 · 91.1 · 9.4% 10.0% 19.9% F B O C 55

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Wheeler +475 0.228 · 91.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 28.2% F B O C 52

· — Bryce Harper COOL vs Gibson +390 0.237 · 90.2 · 7.2% 7.7% 14.7% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Gibson +500 0.166 · 89.7 · 6.2% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Wheeler +1000 0.139 · 86.9 · 3.5% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· — Alec Bohm vs Gibson Edge +750 0.141 · 90.4 · 5.0% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 44

· — Trea Turner COOL vs Gibson Edge +625 0.151 · 88.4 · 5.3% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 45

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Wheeler Edge +700 0.107 · 86.8 · 4.4% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 36

· — Bryson Stott COOL vs Gibson +575 0.154 · 89.5 · 5.3% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 44

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Wheeler +850 0.143 · 89.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Wheeler Edge +900 0.101 · 87.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 34

· — J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Gibson Edge +575 0.122 · 89.8 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

· — Justin Crawford vs Gibson — 0.089 · 87.2 · 2.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.5% ← leak BRK 22.6% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.1% 9.8% 18.8% 15.4% C 55 +525

Heriberto Hernández R

12.0% 12.3% 16.7% 12.5% C 52 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

134

Otto Lopez R

9.0% 3.9% 1.6% 6.1% D 41 +850

156

Javier Sanoja R

2.5% 3.2% 0.0% 2.4% D 38 +1000

171

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.3% 1.9% 7.9% 3.6% D 36 +700

181

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.3% 2.3% 2.7% 3.6% D 34 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.5% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 65.3% FB 27.5% OFF 7.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L

14.6% 17.1% 30.0% 17.8% B 70 +225

Neutral · 1

Bryce Harper L

14.2% 11.0% 6.0% 11.1% C 58 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L

13.5% 7.2% 4.0% 8.5% D 48 +500

Trea Turner R Edge

4.5% 8.2% 2.5% 6.3% D 45 +625

107

Bryson Stott L

3.9% 7.9% 4.8% 6.2% D 44 +575

108

Alec Bohm R Edge

6.5% 4.7% 11.4% 5.8% D 44 +750

160

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

6.8% 3.8% 4.5% 4.6% D 37 +575

189

Justin Crawford L

1.2% 2.1% 0.0% 1.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gibson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Hernández Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 7 mph cross 81°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

81°F

6:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

81°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

80°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

78°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 81°F, wind 7 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 55 C +525 COOL 35 0.207 91.1 9.4% 27.7%vs RHP 398 14.9% 10.0% 19.9% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 52 C +475 COOL 46 0.228 91.7 8.5% 20.4%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 26

3 Otto Lopez 41 D +850 COOL 134 0.143 89.1 6.0% 10.3%vs RHP 402 6.6% 0.0% 9.9% 50

4 Javier Sanoja 38 D +1000 WARM 156 0.139 86.9 3.5% 5.0%vs RHP 383 6.1% 10.0% 8.8% 35

5 Jakob Marsee 36 D +700 · 171 0.107 86.8 4.4% 9.2%vs RHP 380 7.1% 9.1% 8.9% 36

6 Xavier Edwards 34 D +900 COOL 181 0.101 87.0 4.6% 2.7%vs RHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 7.9% 41

vs Cade Gibson · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 70 B +225 · 6 0.289 93.3 9.1% 40.6%vs LHP 402 22.4% 15.4% 34.6% 34

2 Bryce Harper 58 C +390 COOL 28 0.237 90.2 7.2% 12.5%vs LHP 403 19.0% 7.7% 14.7% 32

3 Brandon Marsh 48 D +500 COOL 77 0.166 89.7 6.2% 16.7%vs LHP 391 12.4% 8.3% 10.9% 37

4 Trea Turner 45 D +625 COOL 96 0.151 88.4 5.3% 8.8%vs LHP 392 13.7% 9.1% 9.0% 38

5 Bryson Stott 44 D +575 COOL 107 0.154 89.5 5.3% 13.3%vs LHP 389 7.8% 7.7% 9.7% 43

6 Alec Bohm 44 D +750 WARM 108 0.141 90.4 5.0% 16.2%vs LHP 396 11.2% 9.1% 9.4% 42

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +575 COOL 160 0.122 89.8 4.6% 4.2%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 33

8 Justin Crawford 33 D — WARM 189 0.089 87.2 2.6% 3.4% 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.0% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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