0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
10.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.21
FIP
4.47
xFIP
#24
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
28
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 28th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
BRK 65.3%
FB 27.5%
OFF 7.3%
Overall
Score
Prime targets · 1
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 6 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
25.8%
75.7
15.7°
0
+1.1
Curveball Breaking
23.4%
82.0
0.4°
0
-0.6
Sinker Hard
23.4%
81.7
5.5°
1
+3.0
Slider Breaking
16.1%
81.3
17.5°
1
-1.0
Changeup Offspeed
7.3%
88.8
-6.9°
0
+4.9
Fastball Hard
4.1%
81.8
49.7°
0
-2.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.4% 28
HR/9—
FIP4.21 57
xFIP4.47
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-18
Sweeper
Breaking · 25.8% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.7 mph
Avg launch angle15.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches163
Curveball
Breaking · 23.4% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle0.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches148
Sinker
Hard · 23.4% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle5.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches148
Slider
Breaking · 16.1% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle17.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches102
Changeup
Offspeed · 7.3% usage
+4.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.8 mph
Avg launch angle-6.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches46
Fastball
Hard · 4.1% usage
-2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle49.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches26
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Cade Gibson.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Citizens Bank Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.130
Wind
7 mph from WNW
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
7
81°
+3
7:40p
8
78°
+3
8:40p
7
76°
+3
9:40p
5
74°
+3
10:40p
4
72°
+3
+3
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 6 mph from WNW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
329ft
avg
CF
401ft
avg
RF
330ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
342ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF
345ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: LF 329 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Cade Gibson.
Common questions about Cade Gibson
Is Cade Gibson likely to give up a home run tonight?
Cade Gibson pitches tonight (MIA @ PHI at Citizens Bank Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.