TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.19×

STL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 5 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:40p

+6 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +7

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 23 · vs Abbott ⟷ Tyler Stephenson conv 20 · vs Leahy → edge: Alec Burleson

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 84

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +350 C ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +320 C+ ●●●○○

3 Ivan Herrera +475 D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 84

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Stephenson +500 C ●●●○○

2 Elly De La Cruz +390 C ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart +350 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Alec Burleson: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Alec Burleson ✶ vs Abbott +350 0.206 · 92.0 · 9.1% 25.0% 20.2% F B O C 59

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Leahy +500 0.173 · 91.4 · 11.0% 20.0% 20.4% F B O C 53

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Abbott Edge +320 0.211 · 92.6 · 9.8% 16.7% 21.3% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Leahy Edge +390 0.215 · 93.6 · 11.5% 14.3% 18.6% F B O C 59

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Leahy +350 0.215 · 90.2 · 11.5% 14.3% 15.3% F B O C 59

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Leahy +425 0.211 · 88.7 · 10.9% 0.0% 26.6% F B O C 52

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Leahy Edge +370 0.223 · 88.8 · 10.0% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Leahy +575 0.154 · 88.0 · 9.8% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 46

· STL Ivan Herrera HOT vs Abbott Edge +475 0.138 · 89.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Leahy Edge — 0.081 · 87.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 35

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Abbott Edge +750 0.114 · 86.8 · 3.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Abbott — 0.122 · 85.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Abbott +425 0.134 · 89.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 44

· STL Masyn Winn vs Abbott Edge +625 0.080 · 88.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.8% ← leak BRK 33.5% OFF 18.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R Edge

13.4% 11.0% 16.2% 12.9% C+ 60 +320

Alec Burleson L

12.0% 11.7% 10.0% 11.5% C 59 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

110

Jj Wetherholt L

9.9% 4.2% 1.9% 7.3% D 44 +425

124

Nathan Church L

8.3% 6.3% 4.5% 6.7% D 42 —

128

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.1% 4.8% 6.7% 5.7% D 41 +475

161

José Fermín R Edge

2.4% 2.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 37 +750

178

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.2% 2.0% 5.9% 3.1% D 35 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.8% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 46.3% FB 39.8% OFF 13.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

9.5% 17.9% 4.8% 13.2% C 59 +390

Sal Stewart R

9.6% 16.4% 9.4% 13.2% C 59 +350

Jj Bleday L Edge

6.9% 12.1% 5.5% 9.4% C 54 +370

Tyler Stephenson R

7.8% 15.8% 5.6% 12.6% C 53 +500

Eugenio Suarez R

7.3% 13.8% 5.3% 11.6% C 52 +425

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Matt Mclain R

8.9% 12.4% 0.0% 10.0% D 46 +575

175

Tj Friedl L Edge

4.0% 2.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Cruz Stewart Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Alec Burleson +350 · 59

Tyler Stephenson +500 · 53

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 5 mph out 79°F open

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:40p

↑

2 mph · cross

72°F

9:40p

↑

1 mph · in

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 79°F, wind 5 mph NW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 60 C+ +320 COOL 20 0.211 92.6 9.8% 38.1%vs LHP 408 16.8% 16.7% 21.3% 36

2 Alec Burleson ✶ 59 C +350 WARM 22 0.206 92.0 9.1% 9.1%vs LHP 404 15.8% 25.0% 20.2% 34

3 Jj Wetherholt 44 D +425 · 110 0.134 89.8 7.3% 10.9%vs LHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 8.0% 38

4 Nathan Church 42 D — COOL 124 0.122 85.9 7.0% 16.7%vs LHP 384 8.1% 0.0% 8.5% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 41 D +475 HOT 128 0.138 89.5 6.5% 26.1%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 40

6 José Fermín 37 D +750 COOL 161 0.114 86.8 3.8% 13.0%vs LHP 388 5.5% 0.0% 9.0% 25

7 Masyn Winn 35 D +625 WARM 178 0.080 88.2 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 3.4% 0.0% 7.1% 32

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 59 C +390 COOL 24 0.215 93.6 11.5% 20.3%vs RHP 396 16.2% 14.3% 18.6% 35

2 Sal Stewart 59 C +350 COOL 26 0.215 90.2 11.5% 23.8%vs RHP 396 16.4% 14.3% 15.3% 42

3 Jj Bleday 54 C +370 COOL 39 0.223 88.8 10.0% 22.1%vs RHP 388 16.7% 0.0% 17.1% 34

4 Tyler Stephenson 53 C +500 WARM 43 0.173 91.4 11.0% 22.2%vs RHP 392 9.3% 20.0% 20.4% 26

5 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +425 WARM 45 0.211 88.7 10.9% 28.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 32

6 Matt Mclain 46 D +575 WARM 86 0.154 88.0 9.8% 12.3%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 28

7 Tj Friedl 35 D — COOL 175 0.081 87.4 5.0% 7.0%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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