TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.24×

LAD @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 11 mph cross 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -2

Best of game Max Muncy conv 29 · vs Feltner ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 16 · vs Lauer → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 82

1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +205 B ●●●●○

3 Andy Pages +400 C ●●●○○

FADE Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 80

2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +235 B ●●○○○

2 Mickey Moniak — C+ ●●○○○

3 Willi Castro +500 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 30.4% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy vs Feltner Edge +305 0.244 · 90.3 · 12.0% 27.8% 31.2% F B O C+ 69

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Feltner Edge +205 0.250 · 93.4 · 13.1% 23.1% 30.4% F B O B 71

· LAD Andy Pages vs Feltner +400 0.189 · 89.0 · 9.0% 23.1% 21.1% F B O C 57

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Lauer Edge +235 0.290 · 90.6 · 13.1% 12.5% 19.7% F B O B 71

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Feltner +475 0.171 · 90.5 · 8.9% 15.4% 12.5% F B O C 52

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Lauer — 0.268 · 89.4 · 10.8% 10.0% 17.2% F B O C+ 63

· COL Willi Castro vs Lauer Edge +500 0.155 · 87.6 · 9.4% 9.1% 9.6% F B O C 50

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Lauer +850 0.199 · 84.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 51

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Feltner Edge +425 0.163 · 89.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Feltner Edge +500 0.138 · 88.8 · 8.1% 16.7% 9.3% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Feltner +390 0.147 · 89.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 46

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Lauer +850 0.157 · 83.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 45

· COL Troy Johnston vs Lauer — 0.109 · 89.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Lauer Edge +500 0.124 · 87.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.9% BRK 41.7% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

19.7% 10.0% 17.0% 16.3% B 71 +205

Neutral · 4

Max Muncy L Edge

16.3% 14.8% 7.6% 13.7% C+ 69 +305

Andy Pages R

7.7% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% C 57 +400

Mookie Betts R

9.1% 3.1% 8.6% 7.8% C 52 +475

Freddie Freeman L Edge

8.9% 8.6% 8.5% 8.8% C 51 +425

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.0% 3.1% 1.3% 6.1% D 47 +500

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.1% 11.4% 6.9% 8.6% D 46 +390

Read the columns: no single family leads Feltner's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.6% ← leak BRK 19.9% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.9% 15.7% 9.4% 16.7% B 71 +235

Neutral · 3

Mickey Moniak L

10.3% 21.7% 2.0% 10.8% C+ 63 —

Jake Mccarthy L

6.1% 1.3% 5.9% 4.9% C 51 +850

Willi Castro S Edge

11.0% 5.8% 5.3% 8.4% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

101

Tj Rumfield L

5.3% 1.8% 5.5% 4.2% D 45 +850

111

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.1% 6.7% 7.1% 6.4% D 44 +500

158

Troy Johnston L

2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.6% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts Goodman Moniak

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Max Muncy +305 · 69

Shohei Ohtani +205 · 71

Andy Pages +400 · 57

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 11 mph cross 86°F open

-2

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

82°F

7:40p

-2

↑

6 mph · in

79°F

8:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

76°F

9:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 86°F, wind 11 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 71 B +205 · 4 0.250 93.4 13.1% 23.4%vs RHP 403 19.8% 23.1% 30.4% 39

2 Max Muncy 69 C+ +305 · 7 0.244 90.3 12.0% 26.4%vs RHP 412 19.8% 27.8% 31.2% 44

3 Andy Pages 57 C +400 WARM 29 0.189 89.0 9.0% 19.7%vs RHP 391 14.6% 23.1% 21.1% 41

4 Mookie Betts 52 C +475 · 51 0.171 90.5 8.9% 17.4%vs RHP 390 10.8% 15.4% 12.5% 42

5 Freddie Freeman 51 C +425 COOL 60 0.163 89.8 9.6% 15.7%vs RHP 398 10.7% 0.0% 10.9% 37

6 Kyle Tucker 47 D +500 COOL 84 0.138 88.8 8.1% 11.5%vs RHP 392 7.7% 16.7% 9.3% 38

7 Teoscar Hernandez 46 D +390 WARM 87 0.147 89.6 9.6% 18.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 24

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 71 B +235 COOL 3 0.290 90.6 13.1% 32.0%vs LHP 410 23.6% 12.5% 19.7% 20

2 Mickey Moniak 63 C+ — · 14 0.268 89.4 10.8% 15.4%vs LHP 417 16.9% 10.0% 17.2% 24

3 Jake Mccarthy 51 C +850 COOL 54 0.199 84.9 7.2% 28.6%vs LHP 416 12.5% 0.0% 16.2% 44

4 Willi Castro 50 C +500 · 64 0.155 87.6 9.4% 11.1%vs LHP 411 10.5% 9.1% 9.6% 33

5 Tj Rumfield 45 D +850 COOL 101 0.157 83.9 6.8% 8.0%vs LHP 410 6.2% 0.0% 9.8% 35

6 Ezequiel Tovar 44 D +500 COOL 111 0.124 87.3 8.1% 6.9%vs LHP 408 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% 24

7 Troy Johnston 38 D — WARM 158 0.109 89.6 4.8% 4.8%vs LHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 7.8% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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