TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CIN

Playable air · 1.07×

MIL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 12:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

12:10p

+1 ↑

1:10p

+2 ↑

2:10p

+3 ↑

3:10p

+3 ↑

4:10p

conditions build late — the 3:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 33 · vs Harrison ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 25 · vs Singer → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 96

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +500 C ●●●●○

3 Eugenio Suarez +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 88

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 William Contreras +625 D ●●○○○

3 Brice Turang +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 32.6% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Harrison Edge +350 0.217 · 90.1 · 10.0% 33.3% 32.6% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Harrison Edge +500 0.179 · 91.2 · 9.7% 30.0% 19.7% F B O C 54

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Singer +400 0.194 · 92.0 · 10.7% 25.0% 24.4% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Harrison Edge +425 0.210 · 88.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 31.6% F B O C 51

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Harrison Edge +390 0.206 · 94.0 · 10.3% 8.3% 19.9% F B O C 57

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Singer Edge +500 0.167 · 90.1 · 8.1% 9.1% 13.5% F B O C 51

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Singer Edge +425 0.147 · 89.0 · 9.4% 11.1% 11.3% F B O C 50

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Singer Edge +330 0.217 · 92.4 · 10.9% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Harrison +500 0.212 · 88.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 52

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Singer Edge +575 0.149 · 92.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· MIL William Contreras vs Singer +625 0.136 · 90.1 · 8.4% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 48

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Harrison Edge +625 0.113 · 89.2 · 5.9% 14.3% 10.1% F B O D 40

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Singer — 0.132 · 88.8 · 6.2% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 44

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Harrison Edge +525 0.161 · 88.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 47

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Singer Edge +850 0.095 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brady Singer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Harrison — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Chourio Contreras Stewart Cruz Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Harrison fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Sal Stewart +350 · 62

Tyler Stephenson +500 · 54

Jackson Chourio +400 · 61

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 12:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph cross 74°F open

↑

9 mph · cross

72°F

12:10p

↑

9 mph · cross

74°F

1:10p

↑

9 mph · cross

76°F

2:10p

↑

9 mph · cross

78°F

3:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · cross

79°F

4:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 74°F, wind 9 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio 61 C+ +400 COOL 15 0.194 92.0 10.7% 18.4%vs RHP 399 16.7% 25.0% 24.4% 46

2 Jake Bauers 61 C+ +330 COOL 17 0.217 92.4 10.9% 27.4%vs RHP 401 18.4% 0.0% 18.1% 17

3 Brice Turang 51 C +500 COOL 57 0.167 90.1 8.1% 24.6%vs RHP 407 10.4% 9.1% 13.5% 31

4 Garrett Mitchell 50 C +575 COOL 63 0.149 92.9 10.3% 22.2%vs RHP 415 7.2% 0.0% 11.8% 21

5 Christian Yelich 50 C +425 · 64 0.147 89.0 9.4% 20.0%vs RHP 400 8.3% 11.1% 11.3% 32

6 William Contreras 48 D +625 WARM 80 0.136 90.1 8.4% 12.8%vs RHP 414 10.1% 16.7% 9.5% 40

7 Joey Ortiz 44 D — · 112 0.132 88.8 6.2% 16.7%vs RHP 390 7.4% 11.1% 9.6% 29

8 David Hamilton 38 D +850 COOL 159 0.095 87.0 5.5% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.3% 0.0% 8.2% 33

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 62 C+ +350 · 12 0.217 90.1 10.0% 27.6%vs LHP 397 18.1% 33.3% 32.6% 41

2 Elly De La Cruz 57 C +390 WARM 27 0.206 94.0 10.3% 36.4%vs LHP 398 15.6% 8.3% 19.9% 33

3 Tyler Stephenson 54 C +500 · 41 0.179 91.2 9.7% 4.8%vs LHP 392 10.7% 30.0% 19.7% 24

4 Jj Bleday 52 C +500 COOL 50 0.212 88.5 8.9% 21.7%vs LHP 389 20.0% 0.0% 12.8% 34

5 Eugenio Suarez 51 C +425 COOL 55 0.210 88.3 9.0% 27.8%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 31.6% 23

6 Matt Mclain 47 D +525 COOL 82 0.161 88.4 8.6% 22.7%vs LHP 394 14.3% 0.0% 17.8% 31

7 Dane Myers 40 D +625 COOL 144 0.113 89.2 5.9% 14.8%vs LHP 384 6.6% 14.3% 10.1% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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