TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ MIA

Neutral air · 1.00×

CHC @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 6 mph cross 89°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-8 ↑

1:40p

-10 ↑

2:40p

-10 ↑

3:40p

-11 ↑

4:40p

-11 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at -8

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Phillips ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 27 · vs Holmes → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 64

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Carson Kelly — D ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman +700 D ●●●○○

FADE Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 41

0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +370 D ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Phillips Edge +305 0.289 · 90.2 · 10.1% 30.8% 24.1% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Kyle Stowers HOT vs Holmes Edge +370 0.229 · 92.4 · 8.3% 33.3% 21.0% F B O D 48

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Phillips — 0.128 · 87.2 · 6.6% 30.0% 10.5% F B O D 36

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Phillips +700 0.183 · 88.1 · 6.7% 23.1% 16.6% F B O D 42

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Phillips Edge +500 0.195 · 89.2 · 9.5% 20.0% 14.9% F B O D 48

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Phillips +500 0.210 · 88.4 · 9.0% 15.4% 11.5% F B O D 47

· CHC Michael Busch vs Phillips Edge +500 0.155 · 88.3 · 8.4% 15.4% 9.1% F B O D 40

· — Heriberto Hernández vs Holmes +500 0.235 · 91.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 19.5% F B O D 41

· — Jakob Marsee vs Holmes Edge +950 0.118 · 87.3 · 4.5% 11.1% 6.1% F B O D 27

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Phillips — 0.095 · 85.9 · 3.3% 7.7% 5.9% F B O D 25

· — Otto Lopez vs Holmes +950 0.138 · 89.1 · 5.9% 7.7% 5.5% F B O D 30

· — Javier Sanoja COOL vs Holmes — 0.140 · 86.8 · 3.3% 7.7% 5.5% F B O D 26

· — Owen Caissie COOL vs Holmes Edge +625 0.189 · 91.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Phillips — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Clay Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Kelly Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 · 61

Kyle Stowers +370 · 48

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 6 mph cross 89°F retractable

-8

↑

7 mph · cross

86°F

1:40p · peak

-10

↑

8 mph · in

87°F

2:40p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

87°F

3:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

87°F

4:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

85°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 89°F, wind 6 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 61 C+ +305 WARM 16 0.289 90.2 10.1% 26.9%vs RHP 397 22.4% 30.8% 24.1% 41

2 Ian Happ 48 D +500 COOL 73 0.195 89.2 9.5% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.5% 20.0% 14.9% 30

3 Seiya Suzuki 47 D +500 · 86 0.210 88.4 9.0% 20.0%vs RHP 406 16.7% 15.4% 11.5% 43

4 Alex Bregman 42 D +700 WARM 125 0.183 88.1 6.7% 18.3%vs RHP 390 12.9% 23.1% 16.6% 48

5 Michael Busch 40 D +500 WARM 145 0.155 88.3 8.4% 12.9%vs RHP 401 13.3% 15.4% 9.1% 34

6 Carson Kelly 36 D — · 173 0.128 87.2 6.6% 9.5%vs RHP 403 8.8% 30.0% 10.5% 30

7 Nico Hoerner 25 D — WARM 211 0.095 85.9 3.3% 6.9%vs RHP 383 5.7% 7.7% 5.9% 46

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 48 D +370 HOT 69 0.229 92.4 8.3% 23.9%vs RHP 398 15.3% 33.3% 21.0% 21

2 Heriberto Hernández 41 D +500 WARM 129 0.235 91.4 8.8% 25.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 35

3 Owen Caissie 40 D +625 COOL 143 0.189 91.0 8.8% 26.0%vs RHP 398 13.4% 0.0% 10.5% 11

4 Otto Lopez 30 D +950 · 201 0.138 89.1 5.9% 9.2%vs RHP 402 6.5% 7.7% 5.5% 44

5 Jakob Marsee 27 D +950 WARM 206 0.118 87.3 4.5% 11.4%vs RHP 382 8.0% 11.1% 6.1% 26

6 Javier Sanoja 26 D — COOL 208 0.140 86.8 3.3% 8.5%vs RHP 380 7.1% 7.7% 5.5% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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