TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ LAD

Neutral air · 1.04×

WSH @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

7:10p

+1 ↑

8:10p

+2 ↑

9:10p

+2 ↑

10:10p

+2 ↑

11:10p

the 9:10p window peaks +2

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 25 · vs Wrobleski ⟷ Max Muncy conv 27 · vs Alvarez → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Justin Wrobleski LHP · LAD

leak 93

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile — C ●●●●○

2 James Wood +390 C+ ●●○○○

3 Cj Abrams +500 C ●○○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 69

0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C ●●●●○

2 Tommy Edman +700 D ●●○○○

3 Shohei Ohtani — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 23.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Alvarez — 0.237 · 90.5 · 8.9% 30.8% 22.9% F B O C 59

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Wrobleski — 0.182 · 88.7 · 9.1% 30.8% 18.5% F B O C 53

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Wrobleski +390 0.266 · 95.2 · 13.8% 0.0% 23.0% F B O C+ 68

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Alvarez — 0.246 · 93.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 57

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Wrobleski +500 0.230 · 89.5 · 9.4% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Alvarez Edge +700 0.141 · 88.0 · 6.0% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 41

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Alvarez +700 0.159 · 89.7 · 7.1% 8.3% 10.2% F B O D 43

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Alvarez Edge +575 0.171 · 90.0 · 6.5% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 43

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Alvarez +700 0.131 · 88.6 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 37

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Alvarez — 0.217 · 89.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 48

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +575 0.145 · 90.3 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 46

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Alvarez Edge +500 0.147 · 90.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +850 0.145 · 87.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Wrobleski — 0.085 · 82.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.035 · 85.1 · 2.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Justin Wrobleski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Alvarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Lile Muncy Edman

Legend

attack side — vs Wrobleski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy — · 59

Daylen Lile — · 53

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph in 76°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · in

74°F

7:10p

↑

3 mph · cross

73°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:10p · peak

↑

2 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

70°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 76°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Justin Wrobleski · LHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 68 C+ +390 · 4 0.266 95.2 13.8% 40.9%vs LHP 413 25.3% 0.0% 23.0% 9

2 Cj Abrams 56 C +500 COOL 31 0.230 89.5 9.4% 20.7%vs LHP 395 27.3% 0.0% 17.8% 26

3 Daylen Lile 53 C — HOT 48 0.182 88.7 9.1% 4.0%vs LHP 400 11.9% 30.8% 18.5% 38

4 Dylan Crews 46 D +575 COOL 93 0.145 90.3 9.2% 20.0%vs LHP 407 13.2% 0.0% 9.8% 31

5 Jacob Young 42 D +850 COOL 128 0.145 87.7 7.5% 10.0%vs LHP 399 6.9% 0.0% 8.5% 24

6 Jorbit Vivas 34 D — WARM 184 0.085 82.7 5.7% 4.4% 392 2.5% 0.0% 8.0% 30

7 Nasim Nunez 24 D — WARM 212 0.035 85.1 2.9% 5.0%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 26

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 59 C — COOL 18 0.237 90.5 8.9% 23.5%vs LHP 411 21.7% 30.8% 22.9% 45

2 Shohei Ohtani 57 C — COOL 28 0.246 93.2 9.7% 30.8%vs LHP 407 18.4% 0.0% 18.9% 22

3 Dalton Rushing 48 D — COOL 72 0.217 89.6 8.5% 8.3%vs LHP 400 8.8% 0.0% 15.8% 1

4 Freddie Freeman 43 D +700 COOL 120 0.159 89.7 7.1% 14.7%vs LHP 399 10.1% 8.3% 10.2% 30

5 Mookie Betts 43 D +575 COOL 122 0.171 90.0 6.5% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.1% 8.3% 9.3% 43

6 Tommy Edman 41 D +700 · 132 0.141 88.0 6.0% 30.0%vs LHP 398 9.8% 16.7% 10.4% 38

7 Teoscar Hernandez 38 D +500 WARM 157 0.147 90.0 7.6% 18.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 30

8 Kyle Tucker 37 D +700 COOL 170 0.131 88.6 5.7% 6.1%vs LHP 392 7.6% 9.1% 7.4% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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