TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.11×

ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 1:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 6 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Matt Olson conv 15 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 31 · vs Mahle → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 93

1.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +305 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 67

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +220 B ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +425 C ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 37.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Mahle Edge +220 0.279 · 92.4 · 10.9% 25.0% 37.1% F B O B 71

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Nola Edge +305 0.262 · 92.6 · 11.8% 8.3% 22.1% F B O C+ 69

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.204 · 90.5 · 9.9% 0.0% 29.8% F B O C 55

· — Bryce Harper vs Mahle Edge +425 0.230 · 90.4 · 8.9% 8.3% 19.4% F B O C 59

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Nola Edge +390 0.173 · 91.9 · 10.9% 8.3% 14.6% F B O C 57

· ATL Austin Riley vs Nola +500 0.141 · 91.4 · 10.3% 9.1% 12.2% F B O C 52

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Nola — 0.180 · 90.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 20.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Nola Edge +525 0.160 · 87.0 · 6.1% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 48

· — Alec Bohm vs Mahle +850 0.141 · 90.5 · 6.3% 10.0% 10.1% F B O D 45

· — Bryson Stott COOL vs Mahle Edge +700 0.147 · 89.2 · 6.3% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 44

· — J.T. Realmuto vs Mahle +700 0.132 · 89.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 40

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Nola Edge +750 0.123 · 87.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 45

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Nola Edge +600 0.148 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 48

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Mahle Edge +700 0.153 · 89.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 46

· — Trea Turner vs Mahle +625 0.137 · 88.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Nola +1000 0.122 · 86.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· — Justin Crawford COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.084 · 87.1 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Aaron Nola — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Mahle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Harris Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +220 · 71

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 6 mph in 76°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

1:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

2:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

3:10p

↑

4 mph · in

76°F

4:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · in

75°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 76°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 1.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.28 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 69 C+ +305 COOL 2 0.262 92.6 11.8% 29.9%vs RHP 408 23.1% 8.3% 22.1% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 57 C +390 · 29 0.173 91.9 10.9% 23.1%vs RHP 402 15.6% 8.3% 14.6% 36

3 Michael Harris 55 C — COOL 34 0.204 90.5 9.9% 25.8%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 33

4 Ronald Acuna 52 C — WARM 49 0.180 90.3 10.6% 23.3%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 34

5 Austin Riley 52 C +500 · 54 0.141 91.4 10.3% 16.7%vs RHP 407 9.3% 9.1% 12.2% 25

6 Ozzie Albies 48 D +525 · 77 0.160 87.0 6.1% 13.1%vs RHP 387 13.4% 8.3% 11.9% 38

7 Mike Yastrzemski 48 D +600 COOL 79 0.148 90.7 7.8% 14.5%vs RHP 389 7.8% 0.0% 11.2% 16

8 Dominic Smith 45 D +750 WARM 97 0.123 87.7 7.1% 14.3%vs RHP 392 7.9% 0.0% 12.4% 3

9 Mauricio Dubon 39 D +1000 COOL 151 0.122 86.5 5.8% 10.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 38

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 71 B +220 COOL 1 0.279 92.4 10.9% 42.4%vs RHP 403 22.7% 25.0% 37.1% 34

2 Bryce Harper 59 C +425 · 19 0.230 90.4 8.9% 34.8%vs RHP 402 18.2% 8.3% 19.4% 35

3 Brandon Marsh 46 D +700 COOL 90 0.153 89.2 7.6% 18.4%vs RHP 391 11.2% 0.0% 10.9% 21

4 Alec Bohm 45 D +850 WARM 101 0.141 90.5 6.3% 13.3%vs RHP 397 10.8% 10.0% 10.1% 25

5 Trea Turner 44 D +625 WARM 110 0.137 88.3 6.7% 17.9%vs RHP 392 12.0% 0.0% 10.5% 39

6 Bryson Stott 44 D +700 COOL 113 0.147 89.2 6.3% 9.5%vs RHP 393 7.6% 8.3% 9.2% 30

7 J.T. Realmuto 40 D +700 WARM 141 0.132 89.7 6.0% 17.8%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 28

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — COOL 195 0.084 87.1 3.0% 4.2%vs RHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 7.5% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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