TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.67×

DET @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 12 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

1:40p

-13 ↑

2:40p

-12 ↑

3:40p

-11 ↑

4:40p

-10 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 5:40p window peaks -10

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 23 · vs Williams ⟷ Patrick Bailey conv 14 · vs Jobe → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 100

1.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.99 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson +575 C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene +475 C ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Jackson Jobe RHP · DET

leak 89

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Patrick Bailey +850 D ●●○○○

2 Travis Bazzana +850 D ●●○○○

3 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: Match 28.6% · 14D pace 18.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ vs Williams +575 0.189 · 89.3 · 11.8% 18.2% 28.6% F B O C 54

· DET Riley Greene vs Williams Edge +475 0.188 · 90.4 · 12.7% 20.0% 20.8% F B O C 53

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Williams +700 0.215 · 88.5 · 10.8% 0.0% 19.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Jobe Edge +850 0.124 · 90.6 · 8.4% 14.3% 14.6% F B O D 43

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Jobe Edge +850 0.135 · 87.7 · 6.6% 18.2% 8.7% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Jobe Edge +950 0.126 · 86.7 · 5.4% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 38

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.187 · 87.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 21.4% F B O D 44

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Williams +850 0.149 · 89.7 · 10.0% 7.7% 13.1% F B O D 44

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Jobe Edge +700 0.164 · 91.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Williams +950 0.114 · 86.5 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 37

· DET Colt Keith vs Williams Edge +750 0.142 · 89.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Jobe Edge +500 0.141 · 89.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Williams Edge +625 0.137 · 88.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 40

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.095 · 85.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Jobe Edge — 0.057 · 83.8 · 2.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gavin Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Jobe — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Greene Bailey Bazzana

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Riley Greene +475 · 53

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 12 mph in 77°F open

-12

↑

12 mph · in

72°F

1:40p

-13

↑

13 mph · in

73°F

2:40p

-12

↑

13 mph · in

73°F

3:40p

-11

↑

13 mph · in

74°F

4:40p

-10

↑

12 mph · in

72°F

5:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.67× 77°F, wind 12 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.99 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 54 C +575 · 37 0.189 89.3 11.8% 25.7%vs RHP 393 14.8% 18.2% 28.6% 22

2 Riley Greene 53 C +475 WARM 46 0.188 90.4 12.7% 17.7%vs RHP 399 12.4% 20.0% 20.8% 12

3 Dillon Dingler 52 C +700 COOL 53 0.215 88.5 10.8% 27.5%vs RHP 398 17.7% 0.0% 19.7% 29

4 Hao-Yu Lee 44 D +850 WARM 107 0.149 89.7 10.0% 24.0%vs RHP 399 16.2% 7.7% 13.1% 31

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D +625 WARM 149 0.137 88.1 8.9% 9.6%vs RHP 397 18.2% 0.0% 8.0% 43

6 Colt Keith 39 D +750 · 154 0.142 89.0 9.1% 13.0%vs RHP 385 6.3% 0.0% 8.7% 13

7 Gleyber Torres 37 D +950 · 165 0.114 86.5 8.8% 14.3%vs RHP 393 8.5% 0.0% 10.3% 33

8 Zach Mckinstry 29 D — COOL 204 0.095 85.6 4.9% 5.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 24

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 44 D — COOL 104 0.187 87.7 8.5% 22.7%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 25

2 Patrick Bailey 43 D +850 WARM 117 0.124 90.6 8.4% 16.7%vs RHP 409 7.2% 14.3% 14.6% 10

3 Chase Delauter 42 D +700 WARM 124 0.164 91.4 7.8% 19.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 28

4 Travis Bazzana 41 D +850 COOL 134 0.135 87.7 6.6% 15.2%vs RHP 396 10.5% 18.2% 8.7% 25

5 Brayan Rocchio 38 D +950 · 158 0.126 86.7 5.4% 11.4%vs RHP 384 8.3% 16.7% 8.8% 37

6 Jose Ramirez 37 D +500 COOL 162 0.141 89.3 6.6% 8.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 41

7 Steven Kwan 23 D — WARM 214 0.057 83.8 2.2% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 6.9% 48

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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