TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.61×

NYY @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 15 mph in 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

-16 ↑

1:10p

-17 ↑

2:10p

-19 ↑

3:10p

-21 ↑

4:10p

-21 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -16

Best of game Paul Goldschmidt conv 21 · vs King ⟷ Ty France conv 17 · vs Cole → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 72

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Paul Goldschmidt — D ●●●○○

2 Jazz Chisholm — D ●●●○○

3 Ben Rice +370 C ●●●○○

FADE Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 51

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +575 D ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●○○○

3 Manny Machado +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 17.1% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs King Edge +370 0.266 · 91.9 · 11.0% 16.7% 17.1% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs King — 0.205 · 86.8 · 9.5% 22.2% 19.1% F B O D 48

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs King Edge — 0.173 · 90.8 · 8.5% 20.0% 16.1% F B O D 43

· SD Ty France COOL vs Cole +575 0.221 · 91.9 · 8.3% 16.7% 17.0% F B O D 47

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Cole Edge +500 0.175 · 90.9 · 9.2% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 43

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Cole +425 0.187 · 90.5 · 8.2% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 42

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs King Edge +500 0.150 · 88.9 · 7.1% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 37

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Cole — 0.164 · 92.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 37

· NYY Austin Wells vs King Edge +625 0.124 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 35

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs King Edge +625 0.147 · 91.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs King — 0.134 · 83.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Cole +750 0.102 · 89.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Cole Edge +950 0.074 · 87.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 23

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Cole — 0.108 · 87.6 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Michael King — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Gerrit Cole — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Chisholm France Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Paul Goldschmidt — · 48

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 15 mph in 89°F open

-16

↑

16 mph · in

90°F

1:10p · peak

-17

↑

18 mph · in

92°F

2:10p

-19

↑

19 mph · in

91°F

3:10p

-21

↑

20 mph · in

90°F

4:10p

-21

↑

20 mph · in

89°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.61× 89°F, wind 15 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 58 C +370 COOL 24 0.266 91.9 11.0% 31.3%vs RHP 394 23.9% 16.7% 17.1% 38

2 Paul Goldschmidt 48 D — WARM 70 0.205 86.8 9.5% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.5% 22.2% 19.1% 19

3 Jazz Chisholm 43 D — COOL 116 0.173 90.8 8.5% 22.6%vs RHP 384 14.3% 20.0% 16.1% 26

4 Ryan Mcmahon 39 D +625 COOL 153 0.147 91.1 8.9% 18.5%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 10.5% 7

5 Cody Bellinger 37 D +500 · 168 0.150 88.9 7.1% 11.6%vs RHP 378 9.0% 7.7% 7.8% 46

6 Austin Wells 35 D +625 WARM 179 0.124 89.3 7.6% 14.3%vs RHP 379 7.9% 0.0% 12.0% 22

7 Jose Caballero 29 D — COOL 202 0.134 83.8 5.9% 21.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 33

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 47 D +575 COOL 83 0.221 91.9 8.3% 27.8%vs RHP 390 16.3% 16.7% 17.0% 32

2 Jackson Merrill 43 D +500 · 119 0.175 90.9 9.2% 20.0%vs RHP 412 15.7% 16.7% 11.1% 38

3 Manny Machado 42 D +425 COOL 127 0.187 90.5 8.2% 26.3%vs RHP 397 17.0% 9.1% 11.2% 32

4 Fernando Tatis 37 D — WARM 163 0.164 92.8 9.6% 14.7%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 42

5 Xander Bogaerts 29 D +750 WARM 205 0.102 89.2 6.6% 15.6%vs RHP 400 7.6% 0.0% 6.9% 31

6 Freddy Fermin 27 D — HOT 207 0.108 87.6 5.5% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 6.0% 11

7 Jake Cronenworth 23 D +950 COOL 215 0.074 87.2 4.8% 7.5%vs RHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 6.5% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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