TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.35×

AZ @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 2 mph slight_out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:10p

+6 ↑

2:10p

+6 ↑

3:10p

+6 ↑

4:10p

+7 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +7

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 21 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Ketel Marte conv 26 · vs Lambert → edge: Ketel Marte

ATTACK Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 17

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +500 C ●●●○○

2 Yainer Diaz — D ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 13

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ketel Marte +425 C ●●●●○

2 Gabriel Moreno +575 D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +425 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ketel Marte: Match 19.0% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Ketel Marte ✶ COOL vs Lambert Edge +425 0.198 · 90.1 · 8.2% 33.3% 19.0% F B O C 56

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.186 · 88.4 · 7.1% 23.1% 19.3% F B O C 53

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +525 0.195 · 89.2 · 8.3% 8.3% 14.0% F B O C 54

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Lambert Edge +425 0.227 · 91.7 · 8.8% 7.7% 14.4% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Rodriguez +350 0.282 · 94.5 · 11.3% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +575 0.176 · 89.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.164 · 88.1 · 6.5% 25.0% 16.7% F B O D 48

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Lambert +575 0.168 · 89.3 · 7.2% 16.7% 14.1% F B O D 49

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +575 0.163 · 86.0 · 6.1% 15.4% 8.6% F B O D 46

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Lambert +700 0.151 · 91.0 · 8.2% 7.7% 11.3% F B O D 48

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Lambert +750 0.112 · 87.1 · 6.5% 8.3% 8.3% F B O D 41

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Lambert +525 0.185 · 84.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 48

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Rodriguez Edge +700 0.152 · 85.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.122 · 86.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 35

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Lambert Edge +700 0.115 · 87.5 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.156 · 88.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 48

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.132 · 87.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Peter Lambert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Eduardo Rodriguez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Moreno Peña Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ketel Marte +425 · 56

Jeremy Peña +500 · 53

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.12× Wind 2 mph slight_out 88°F retractable

↑

3 mph · slight_out

84°F

1:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

86°F

2:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

88°F

3:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

89°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

85°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 88°F, wind 2 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 57 C +425 WARM 30 0.227 91.7 8.8% 16.7%vs RHP 402 13.0% 7.7% 14.4% 34

2 Ketel Marte ✶ 56 C +425 COOL 32 0.198 90.1 8.2% 14.5%vs RHP 409 15.6% 33.3% 19.0% 13

3 Gabriel Moreno 49 D +575 COOL 66 0.168 89.3 7.2% 13.8%vs RHP 401 10.5% 16.7% 14.1% 32

4 Nolan Arenado 48 D +525 COOL 74 0.185 84.8 6.4% 21.1%vs RHP 389 14.4% 0.0% 13.5% 37

5 Tim Tawa 48 D +700 · 78 0.151 91.0 8.2% 23.7%vs RHP 398 8.9% 7.7% 11.3% 25

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 41 D +750 WARM 137 0.112 87.1 6.5% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.9% 8.3% 8.3% 20

7 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D — COOL 161 0.132 87.5 4.6% 6.4%vs RHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 7.2% 37

8 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D +700 COOL 169 0.115 87.5 4.3% 9.9%vs RHP 383 6.3% 0.0% 7.6% 40

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 61 C+ +350 COOL 14 0.282 94.5 11.3% 21.4%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 32

2 Christian Walker 54 C +525 COOL 44 0.195 89.2 8.3% 25.0%vs LHP 391 16.7% 8.3% 14.0% 38

3 Jeremy Peña 53 C +500 WARM 47 0.186 88.4 7.1% 12.5%vs LHP 387 15.9% 23.1% 19.3% 36

4 Cam Smith 51 C +575 COOL 59 0.176 89.1 9.1% 21.4%vs LHP 408 12.2% 0.0% 12.2% 23

5 Yainer Diaz 48 D — WARM 71 0.164 88.1 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 392 11.1% 25.0% 16.7% 26

6 Taylor Trammell 48 D — COOL 81 0.156 88.5 9.8% 0.0%vs LHP 413 11.6% 0.0% 7.5% 25

7 Isaac Paredes 46 D +575 COOL 94 0.163 86.0 6.1% 3.2%vs LHP 375 11.8% 15.4% 8.6% 41

8 Jose Altuve 40 D +700 WARM 142 0.152 85.4 6.0% 20.0%vs LHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 36

9 Christian Vazquez 35 D +850 WARM 177 0.122 86.0 4.1% 9.1%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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