TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ BAL

Neutral air · 1.00×

BOS @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:35p

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2:35p

-8 ↑

3:35p

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4:35p

-8 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at -7

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 16 · vs Bradish ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 24 · vs Tolle → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 74

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +525 D ●●○○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +425 C ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +650 D ●○○○○

FADE Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 46

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +350 C ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo +475 C ●●●○○

3 Colton Cowser — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 24.9% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Tolle Edge +350 0.229 · 94.2 · 9.4% 23.1% 24.9% F B O C 58

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Tolle Edge +475 0.221 · 91.7 · 9.1% 18.2% 26.6% F B O C 54

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Bradish Edge +425 0.207 · 89.8 · 10.1% 14.3% 13.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Tolle — 0.153 · 88.0 · 8.3% 20.0% 17.1% F B O D 45

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Bradish Edge +525 0.154 · 90.0 · 8.8% 18.2% 14.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Tolle +575 0.179 · 89.6 · 6.8% 7.7% 16.5% F B O D 44

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Tolle +950 0.119 · 87.0 · 6.6% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 35

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Tolle Edge +950 0.131 · 88.3 · 5.2% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 34

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Tolle — 0.192 · 90.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 47

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Bradish +650 0.161 · 86.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Bradish +950 0.132 · 83.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Bradish — 0.150 · 87.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Bradish — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Payton Tolle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abreu Duran Alonso Mayo Cowser

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +350 · 58

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph in 78°F open

-7

↑

8 mph · in

76°F

1:35p · peak

-8

↑

9 mph · in

77°F

2:35p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

78°F

3:35p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

79°F

4:35p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

77°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 78°F, wind 8 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 54 C +425 COOL 45 0.207 89.8 10.1% 14.9%vs RHP 406 15.8% 14.3% 13.0% 40

2 Jarren Duran 47 D +525 WARM 85 0.154 90.0 8.8% 27.4%vs RHP 400 13.6% 18.2% 14.1% 32

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 41 D +650 COOL 133 0.161 86.3 6.5% 13.9%vs RHP 382 11.9% 0.0% 9.9% 37

4 Andruw Monasterio 41 D — COOL 139 0.150 87.9 7.5% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 7.5% 21

5 Caleb Durbin 35 D +950 COOL 180 0.132 83.5 4.6% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.3% 0.0% 8.6% 32

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 58 C +350 · 22 0.229 94.2 9.4% 21.4%vs LHP 402 21.1% 23.1% 24.9% 34

2 Coby Mayo 54 C +475 COOL 38 0.221 91.7 9.1% 40.5%vs LHP 411 16.7% 18.2% 26.6% 26

3 Samuel Basallo 47 D — COOL 84 0.192 90.4 9.1% 20.0%vs LHP 399 14.1% 0.0% 14.3% 25

4 Colton Cowser 45 D — WARM 95 0.153 88.0 8.3% 14.3%vs LHP 412 15.8% 20.0% 17.1% 25

5 Gunnar Henderson 44 D +575 COOL 106 0.179 89.6 6.8% 32.0%vs LHP 393 14.3% 7.7% 16.5% 37

6 Jackson Holliday 35 D +950 · 181 0.119 87.0 6.6% 7.7%vs LHP 389 4.8% 9.1% 8.2% 38

7 Leody Taveras 34 D +950 · 185 0.131 88.3 5.2% 6.2%vs LHP 403 4.9% 9.1% 6.8% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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