TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.97×

SF @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 5 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

1:40p

-8 ↑

2:40p

-7 ↑

3:40p

-5 ↑

4:40p

-7 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks -5

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 45 · vs Scott ⟷ Juan Soto conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 90

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +390 D ●●○○○

3 Drew Gilbert +750 D ●○○○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 40

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Francisco Lindor +400 C ●●●●○

3 Francisco Alvarez +525 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 32.0% · 14D pace 57.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs Scott Edge +290 0.261 · 92.9 · 9.0% 57.1% 32.0% F B O C+ 65

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Proxy +305 0.254 · 92.7 · 14.6% 33.3% 24.9% F B O C+ 66

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Proxy +400 0.196 · 91.1 · 9.1% 33.3% 18.6% F B O C 53

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Proxy +525 0.176 · 90.1 · 15.5% 0.0% 18.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Scott Edge +390 0.188 · 92.5 · 9.1% 9.1% 12.9% F B O D 48

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Scott Edge +750 0.141 · 86.8 · 6.1% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 37

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Proxy +625 0.133 · 89.6 · 6.3% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 38

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Proxy +700 0.166 · 89.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Scott Edge — 0.129 · 87.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Proxy +700 0.140 · 88.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Proxy +575 0.127 · 86.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 36

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Proxy +850 0.118 · 89.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· NYM Brett Baty vs Proxy +700 0.120 · 90.0 · 9.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Christian Scott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Soto Lindor

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +290 · 65

Juan Soto +305 · 66

Francisco Lindor +400 · 53

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 5 mph in 70°F open

-8

↑

8 mph · in

70°F

1:40p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

71°F

2:40p

-7

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

3:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

73°F

4:40p · peak

-7

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 65 C+ +290 HOT 7 0.261 92.9 9.0% 30.1%vs RHP 400 22.5% 57.1% 32.0% 40

2 Bryce Eldridge 48 D +390 · 75 0.188 92.5 9.1% 18.9%vs RHP 399 17.8% 9.1% 12.9% 29

3 Drew Gilbert 37 D +750 WARM 167 0.141 86.8 6.1% 16.7%vs RHP 394 6.7% 9.1% 9.4% 29

4 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D — WARM 194 0.129 87.4 4.2% 9.9%vs RHP 382 5.5% 0.0% 7.9% 37

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 66 C+ +305 COOL 11 0.254 92.7 14.6% 20.0% 400 20.4% 33.3% 24.9% 22

2 Francisco Lindor 53 C +400 · 65 0.196 91.1 9.1% 14.8% 394 15.0% 33.3% 18.6% 38

3 Francisco Alvarez 50 C +525 WARM 88 0.176 90.1 15.5% 21.1% 403 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 14

4 Jared Young 40 D +700 COOL 171 0.166 89.7 7.0% 12.1% 400 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% 31

5 Brett Baty 40 D +700 WARM 172 0.120 90.0 9.6% 9.2% 397 6.6% 0.0% 6.8% 16

6 Carson Benge 39 D +700 COOL 176 0.140 88.7 7.2% 13.4% 396 10.3% 0.0% 7.7% 34

7 Bo Bichette 38 D +625 WARM 183 0.133 89.6 6.3% 12.4% 385 10.2% 9.1% 7.2% 32

8 Marcus Semien 36 D +575 COOL 192 0.127 86.4 6.1% 10.6% 391 10.3% 0.0% 6.9% 33

9 A.J. Ewing 34 D +850 COOL 199 0.118 89.1 6.9% 10.3% 400 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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