TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.37×

TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph cross 101°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:35p

+4 ↑

2:35p

+6 ↑

3:35p

+8 ↑

4:35p

+9 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks +9

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 43 · vs Seymour ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 27 · vs Gore → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 97

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +700 C ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +400 C ●●●○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 81

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jonathan Aranda +625 C ●●●●○

3 Richie Palacios — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 36.2% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Seymour — 0.248 · 92.3 · 10.2% 50.0% 36.2% F B O C+ 66

· TB Junior Caminero vs Gore Edge +305 0.249 · 92.9 · 10.3% 23.1% 31.7% F B O C+ 65

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Seymour Edge +700 0.181 · 88.9 · 7.7% 30.8% 21.0% F B O C 52

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Gore +625 0.151 · 91.2 · 9.0% 33.3% 13.2% F B O C 50

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Seymour Edge +400 0.183 · 90.1 · 10.4% 16.7% 18.8% F B O C 55

· TEX Corey Seager vs Seymour +320 0.184 · 91.9 · 11.6% 7.7% 15.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Gore — 0.132 · 86.2 · 5.2% 33.3% 12.0% F B O D 41

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Seymour — 0.133 · 87.9 · 6.9% 14.3% 8.0% F B O D 41

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Seymour Edge +425 0.192 · 89.2 · 7.8% 7.7% 12.9% F B O D 49

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Seymour +525 0.155 · 92.3 · 9.7% 7.7% 12.2% F B O D 48

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Gore — 0.143 · 87.9 · 6.0% 10.0% 6.9% F B O D 41

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Gore Edge +525 0.164 · 90.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 42

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Gore Edge +850 0.162 · 85.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Seymour — 0.039 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 21

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.100 · 85.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Gore Edge +950 0.074 · 85.6 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Gore — 0.051 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for MacKenzie Gore — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ian Seymour — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Palacios Pederson Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson — · 66

Junior Caminero +305 · 65

Ezequiel Duran +700 · 52

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph cross 101°F retractable

↑

8 mph · cross

95°F

1:35p

↑

9 mph · cross

99°F

2:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

102°F

3:35p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

103°F

4:35p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

102°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 101°F, wind 8 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 65 C+ +305 · 8 0.249 92.9 10.3% 36.4%vs LHP 414 25.2% 23.1% 31.7% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C +625 WARM 62 0.151 91.2 9.0% 7.7%vs LHP 390 12.9% 33.3% 13.2% 34

3 Yandy Diaz 42 D +525 WARM 123 0.164 90.9 7.8% 22.2%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 46

4 Richie Palacios 41 D — WARM 131 0.132 86.2 5.2% 10.0% 393 7.4% 33.3% 12.0% 28

5 Cedric Mullins 41 D — WARM 140 0.143 87.9 6.0% 4.0%vs LHP 387 11.6% 10.0% 6.9% 29

6 Jonny Deluca 39 D +850 COOL 152 0.162 85.7 5.4% 10.5%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 31

7 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 189 0.100 85.0 4.2% 5.0%vs LHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 7.6% 10

8 Taylor Walls 29 D +950 COOL 203 0.074 85.6 4.0% 3.5%vs LHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 7.4% 28

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 217 0.051 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 48

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 66 C+ — WARM 5 0.248 92.3 10.2% 24.8% 395 23.2% 50.0% 36.2% 17

2 Jake Burger 55 C +400 HOT 36 0.183 90.1 10.4% 31.0%vs LHP 401 15.6% 16.7% 18.8% 32

3 Corey Seager 54 C +320 WARM 43 0.184 91.9 11.6% 19.1%vs LHP 394 15.7% 7.7% 15.1% 38

4 Ezequiel Duran 52 C +700 · 52 0.181 88.9 7.7% 16.0%vs LHP 396 14.0% 30.8% 21.0% 38

5 Wyatt Langford 49 D +425 COOL 67 0.192 89.2 7.8% 14.3%vs LHP 396 14.6% 7.7% 12.9% 38

6 Brandon Nimmo 48 D +525 · 76 0.155 92.3 9.7% 15.6%vs LHP 404 9.8% 7.7% 12.2% 39

7 Evan Carter 41 D — COOL 138 0.133 87.9 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.8% 14.3% 8.0% 23

8 Nicky Lopez 21 D — COOL 216 0.039 84.2 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 9.8% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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