TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ PIT

Neutral air · 1.01×

LAA @ PIT

PNC Park · 1:35p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph cross 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

1:35p

-5 ↑

2:35p

-4 ↑

3:35p

-3 ↑

4:35p

-2 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks -2

Best of game Zach Neto conv 18 · vs Skenes ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 20 · vs Ureña → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 93

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +525 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +950 D ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 17

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +500 C ●●●○○

2 Oneil Cruz +500 C ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 20.4% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ COOL vs Ureña Edge +500 0.225 · 91.1 · 8.1% 20.0% 20.4% F B O C 51

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Ureña Edge +500 0.209 · 95.3 · 9.6% 9.1% 13.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto vs Skenes +525 0.192 · 89.6 · 9.2% 18.2% 17.8% F B O D 46

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Skenes +950 0.142 · 88.0 · 7.4% 16.7% 14.4% F B O D 37

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Skenes Edge +700 0.150 · 88.6 · 7.5% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 36

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Ureña Edge +750 0.162 · 90.8 · 7.6% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 40

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Ureña — 0.070 · 86.6 · 3.8% 9.1% 6.4% F B O D 25

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Skenes +500 0.180 · 89.9 · 10.8% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 44

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Skenes — 0.116 · 87.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Ureña Edge +950 0.128 · 86.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Ureña — 0.087 · 86.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 25

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.086 · 85.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Paul Skenes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Walbert Ureña — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph cross 78°F open

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

73°F

1:35p

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

75°F

2:35p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

3:35p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

4:35p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 78°F, wind 8 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 46 D +525 WARM 89 0.192 89.6 9.2% 19.1%vs RHP 404 15.7% 18.2% 17.8% 29

2 Mike Trout 44 D +500 COOL 108 0.180 89.9 10.8% 21.1%vs RHP 409 13.3% 0.0% 12.3% 33

3 Vaughn Grissom 37 D +950 WARM 164 0.142 88.0 7.4% 19.6%vs RHP 391 9.3% 16.7% 14.4% 40

4 Josh Lowe 36 D +700 COOL 174 0.150 88.6 7.5% 17.5%vs RHP 392 10.2% 9.1% 8.7% 20

5 Oswald Peraza 30 D — COOL 200 0.116 87.1 6.9% 8.0%vs RHP 386 5.0% 0.0% 7.5% 12

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 51 C +500 COOL 56 0.225 91.1 8.1% 25.8%vs RHP 390 17.3% 20.0% 20.4% 26

2 Oneil Cruz 50 C +500 COOL 61 0.209 95.3 9.6% 38.2%vs RHP 413 22.5% 9.1% 13.7% 26

3 Bryan Reynolds 40 D +750 WARM 148 0.162 90.8 7.6% 13.9%vs RHP 409 10.8% 8.3% 8.2% 41

4 Spencer Horwitz 32 D +950 COOL 197 0.128 86.9 5.9% 13.4%vs RHP 395 8.9% 0.0% 6.6% 32

5 Nick Gonzales 25 D — · 209 0.087 86.1 3.8% 9.4%vs RHP 397 6.1% 0.0% 6.6% 36

6 Jared Triolo 25 D — COOL 210 0.070 86.6 3.8% 8.0%vs RHP 409 2.5% 9.1% 6.4% 29

7 Jake Mangum 24 D — COOL 213 0.086 85.6 3.3% 9.7%vs RHP 393 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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