TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.04×

ATH @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph cross 68°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

the 3:10p window peaks -1

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 33 · vs Jump ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 25 · vs Woo → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 67

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +330 C ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone +525 C ●●●○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 64

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +625 C ●●●●○

2 Jonah Heim +625 D ●●○○○

3 Lawrence Butler +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Jump Edge +330 0.195 · 89.7 · 10.1% 41.7% 24.1% F B O C 58

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Woo +625 0.214 · 88.9 · 8.0% 25.0% 24.5% F B O C 54

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Jump Edge +500 0.191 · 90.7 · 7.5% 23.1% 23.0% F B O C 52

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Jump +525 0.224 · 91.1 · 9.4% 16.7% 17.6% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Woo Edge +625 0.177 · 87.9 · 7.2% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 44

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Woo Edge +625 0.142 · 89.6 · 7.6% 15.4% 13.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Woo Edge +850 0.107 · 86.5 · 3.9% 12.5% 8.1% F B O D 32

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Jump Edge +425 0.154 · 90.0 · 8.1% 7.7% 10.4% F B O D 46

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Jump +950 0.136 · 88.2 · 5.8% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 40

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Woo +850 0.114 · 90.8 · 7.4% 7.7% 7.6% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Jump +850 0.095 · 87.2 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Jump +950 0.124 · 87.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bryan Woo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Gage Jump — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Heim Butler Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cal Raleigh +330 · 58

Zack Gelof +625 · 54

Randy Arozarena +500 · 52

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph cross 68°F retractable

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

67°F

1:10p

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

69°F

2:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

71°F

3:10p · peak

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

4:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 68°F, wind 7 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 54 C +625 WARM 39 0.214 88.9 8.0% 25.5%vs RHP 398 21.4% 25.0% 24.5% 38

2 Jonah Heim 44 D +625 WARM 109 0.177 87.9 7.2% 7.7%vs RHP 409 9.4% 16.7% 11.9% 34

3 Lawrence Butler 43 D +625 WARM 118 0.142 89.6 7.6% 18.2%vs RHP 410 8.9% 15.4% 13.1% 29

4 Henry Bolte 39 D +850 · 155 0.114 90.8 7.4% 4.3%vs RHP 401 9.7% 7.7% 7.6% 37

5 Jeff Mcneil 32 D +850 · 193 0.107 86.5 3.9% 12.9%vs RHP 382 6.7% 12.5% 8.1% 44

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 58 C +330 HOT 23 0.195 89.7 10.1% 26.9%vs LHP 384 16.5% 41.7% 24.1% 28

2 Dominic Canzone 56 C +525 · 33 0.224 91.1 9.4% 30.8%vs LHP 404 15.4% 16.7% 17.6% 37

3 Randy Arozarena 52 C +500 · 51 0.191 90.7 7.5% 24.1%vs LHP 386 15.3% 23.1% 23.0% 32

4 Julio Rodríguez 46 D +425 · 92 0.154 90.0 8.1% 19.5%vs LHP 404 15.0% 7.7% 10.4% 38

5 Cole Young 40 D +950 COOL 150 0.136 88.2 5.8% 9.1%vs LHP 383 11.0% 8.3% 7.5% 34

6 J.P. Crawford 35 D +950 COOL 178 0.124 87.9 6.5% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 23

7 Josh Naylor 34 D +850 COOL 187 0.095 87.2 5.7% 10.7%vs LHP 392 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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