TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.35×

TOR @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph cross 95°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

+6 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +6

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 32 · vs Arrighetti ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 19 · vs Dobnak → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Spencer Arrighetti RHP · HOU

leak 92

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nick Loftin +950 D ●●●○○

3 Vinnie Pasquantino +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 17

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +400 C ●●●○○

2 George Springer +525 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 26.9% · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Carter Jensen ✶ vs Arrighetti Edge +390 0.210 · 91.3 · 9.5% 36.4% 26.9% F B O C+ 62

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Dobnak +400 0.212 · 90.5 · 8.5% 18.2% 20.4% F B O C 55

· — Jac Caglianone COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +350 0.211 · 93.2 · 10.7% 10.0% 17.6% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Nick Loftin vs Arrighetti +950 0.149 · 87.1 · 5.8% 22.2% 10.9% F B O D 45

· TOR George Springer vs Dobnak +525 0.165 · 88.4 · 6.1% 20.0% 12.2% F B O D 45

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Dobnak Edge +950 0.122 · 86.8 · 3.6% 20.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· — Vinnie Pasquantino vs Arrighetti Edge +525 0.139 · 89.6 · 7.7% 18.2% 10.4% F B O D 47

· — Michael Massey vs Arrighetti Edge +625 0.164 · 89.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.160 · 90.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· — Bobby Witt vs Arrighetti — 0.169 · 92.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 49

· — Salvador Perez vs Arrighetti +400 0.151 · 88.7 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 44

· — Isaac Collins COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +850 0.117 · 88.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Dobnak Edge +850 0.110 · 85.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Dobnak — 0.095 · 90.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 35

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Dobnak — 0.111 · 84.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Dobnak — 0.113 · 85.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Randy Dobnak — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Spencer Arrighetti — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Jensen Caglianone Pasquantino Loftin

Legend

attack side — vs Arrighetti fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +390 · 62

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph cross 95°F open

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

90°F

1:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

93°F

2:10p

-1

↑

8 mph · cross

96°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

98°F

4:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

94°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 95°F, wind 6 mph E (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 55 C +400 · 35 0.212 90.5 8.5% 26.3%vs RHP 400 17.6% 18.2% 20.4% 28

2 George Springer 45 D +525 WARM 98 0.165 88.4 6.1% 20.4%vs RHP 395 11.1% 20.0% 12.2% 34

3 Jesús Sánchez 44 D — COOL 111 0.160 90.8 7.8% 17.0%vs RHP 398 9.3% 0.0% 10.5% 10

4 Nathan Lukes 37 D +950 · 166 0.122 86.8 3.6% 16.7%vs RHP 382 8.2% 20.0% 9.6% 36

5 Vladimir Guerrero 35 D — · 182 0.095 90.2 6.1% 9.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 45

6 Myles Straw 33 D — COOL 191 0.113 85.9 4.2% 4.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 25

7 Ernie Clement 32 D — COOL 196 0.111 84.2 3.4% 6.0%vs RHP 376 6.8% 0.0% 6.6% 38

8 Andres Gimenez 31 D +850 WARM 198 0.110 85.7 4.3% 10.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 21

vs Spencer Arrighetti · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 62 C+ +390 WARM 13 0.210 91.3 9.5% 20.2%vs RHP 397 16.7% 36.4% 26.9% 32

2 Jac Caglianone 59 C +350 COOL 20 0.211 93.2 10.7% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.4% 10.0% 17.6% 31

3 Bobby Witt 49 D — · 68 0.169 92.3 9.6% 16.1%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 39

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 47 D +525 WARM 87 0.139 89.6 7.7% 14.1%vs RHP 398 10.8% 18.2% 10.4% 38

5 Michael Massey 46 D +625 WARM 91 0.164 89.6 7.1% 9.9%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 10.8% 16

6 Nick Loftin 45 D +950 WARM 100 0.149 87.1 5.8% 11.8%vs RHP 397 9.5% 22.2% 10.9% 32

7 Salvador Perez 44 D +400 WARM 105 0.151 88.7 9.0% 17.1%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 38

8 Isaac Collins 40 D +850 COOL 146 0.117 88.6 6.6% 7.5%vs RHP 394 5.1% 0.0% 8.3% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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