TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CWS

Playable air · 1.07×

MIN @ CWS

Rate Field · 6:20p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 28 · vs Hudson ⟷ Colson Montgomery conv 31 · vs Ober → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Bryan Hudson LHP · CWS

leak 92

0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●●●○

2 Ryan Jeffers — C ●●●●○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●●●○○

FADE Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 74

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colson Montgomery — C+ ●●●●●

2 Tristan Peters — C ●●●●○

3 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ vs Ober Edge — 0.227 · 88.8 · 11.0% 33.3% 29.3% F B O C+ 66

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Hudson — 0.228 · 92.5 · 7.4% 25.0% 30.2% F B O C 57

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Hudson Edge — 0.234 · 88.8 · 7.1% 33.3% 19.9% F B O C 54

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Ober Edge — 0.187 · 87.5 · 7.6% 30.8% 20.7% F B O C 54

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.271 · 93.9 · 13.9% 7.7% 20.4% F B O C+ 69

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Ober — 0.235 · 90.6 · 11.7% 7.7% 15.8% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Ober Edge — 0.175 · 88.9 · 9.1% 9.1% 11.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Hudson Edge — 0.184 · 88.1 · 4.1% 25.0% 12.0% F B O D 45

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Hudson — 0.154 · 87.8 · 5.8% 11.1% 12.7% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Hudson Edge — 0.167 · 89.8 · 6.5% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 44

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.135 · 89.0 · 6.3% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 43

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Hudson Edge — 0.168 · 89.8 · 7.1% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 45

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Hudson Edge — 0.115 · 85.6 · 4.1% 8.3% 5.7% F B O D 34

· CWS Kyle Teel COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.120 · 84.4 · 10.5% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 46

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Ober — 0.124 · 87.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.119 · 87.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Kaelen Culpepper COOL vs Hudson Edge — 0.159 · 87.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 71.9% ← leak BRK 26.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L

9.3% 19.2% 11.9% C 57 —

Ryan Jeffers R Edge

12.7% 10.3% 11.4% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

114

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.2% 0.9% 4.0% D 45 —

120

Royce Lewis R Edge

13.8% 7.1% 11.3% D 45 —

130

Josh Bell S Edge

9.8% 12.2% 9.4% D 44 —

152

Kaelen Culpepper R Edge

7.7% 0.0% 4.3% D 42 —

153

Trevor Larnach L

7.6% 8.3% 7.5% D 41 —

225

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.6% 2.8% 3.6% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.9% usage) carries Hudson's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 35.2% ← leak OFF 34.1% BRK 30.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.4% 13.3% 16.7% 19.2% C+ 69 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.2% 14.9% 10.0% 12.7% C+ 66 —

Miguel Vargas R

15.7% 12.8% 10.3% 13.8% C+ 63 —

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.6% 1.9% 4.1% 5.8% C 54 —

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.7% 4.8% 4.1% 8.7% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

104

Kyle Teel L Edge

15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% D 46 —

139

Braden Montgomery S Edge

6.0% 3.5% 2.0% 4.4% D 43 —

157

Chase Meidroth R

3.9% 3.3% 5.2% 4.2% D 41 —

158

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.9% 0.0% 4.2% 5.2% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (35.2% usage) carries Ober's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Jeffers Lee Murakami Montgomery Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Hudson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Colson Montgomery — · 66

Kody Clemens — · 57

Ryan Jeffers — · 54

Tristan Peters — · 54

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 6:20p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Hudson · LHP 0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 57 C — · 27 0.228 92.5 7.4% 20.8%vs LHP 391 17.9% 25.0% 30.2% 32

2 Ryan Jeffers 54 C — COOL 45 0.234 88.8 7.1% 11.1%vs LHP 396 16.4% 33.3% 19.9% 33

3 Brooks Lee 45 D — HOT 114 0.184 88.1 4.1% 8.8%vs LHP 372 16.2% 25.0% 12.0% 45

4 Royce Lewis 45 D — · 120 0.168 89.8 7.1% 17.4%vs LHP 402 14.3% 8.3% 9.2% 38

5 Josh Bell 44 D — COOL 130 0.167 89.8 6.5% 13.2%vs LHP 407 11.5% 9.1% 8.7% 37

6 Kaelen Culpepper 42 D — COOL 152 0.159 87.4 4.7% 13.0% 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 40

7 Trevor Larnach 41 D — WARM 153 0.154 87.8 5.8% 25.0%vs LHP 395 9.2% 11.1% 12.7% 23

8 Luke Keaschall 34 D — WARM 225 0.115 85.6 4.1% 2.9%vs LHP 378 7.3% 8.3% 5.7% 45

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 69 C+ — COOL 3 0.271 93.9 13.9% 35.4%vs RHP 404 18.4% 7.7% 20.4% 22

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 66 C+ — WARM 6 0.227 88.8 11.0% 26.3%vs RHP 397 22.9% 33.3% 29.3% 25

3 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ — COOL 10 0.235 90.6 11.7% 17.3%vs RHP 393 20.2% 7.7% 15.8% 39

4 Tristan Peters 54 C — WARM 44 0.187 87.5 7.6% 13.6%vs RHP 377 11.5% 30.8% 20.7% 35

5 Andrew Benintendi 51 C — WARM 67 0.175 88.9 9.1% 16.5%vs RHP 388 12.6% 9.1% 11.9% 28

6 Kyle Teel 46 D — COOL 104 0.120 84.4 10.5% 18.2%vs RHP 389 9.1% 0.0% 11.4% 3

7 Braden Montgomery 43 D — COOL 139 0.135 89.0 6.3% 18.5%vs RHP 390 7.5% 8.3% 9.4% 41

8 Chase Meidroth 41 D — COOL 157 0.124 87.4 6.5% 14.3%vs RHP 379 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% 37

9 Sam Antonacci 41 D — COOL 158 0.119 87.2 7.2% 11.8%vs RHP 390 7.7% 0.0% 8.4% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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