TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.32×

STL @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 8 mph slight_out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:10p

+3 ↑

2:10p

+2 ↑

3:10p

-5 ↑

4:10p

-10 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +3

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 12 · vs Gordon ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 56 · vs Leahy → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 64

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +255 C ●●○○○

2 Nolan Gorman +320 D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Church +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 30

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield +750 D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +255 C+ ●●●○○

3 Cole Carrigg +700 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 24.5% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Leahy +255 0.279 · 90.4 · 12.4% 20.0% 24.5% F B O C+ 65

· STL Jordan Walker vs Gordon +255 0.213 · 92.5 · 11.4% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C 58

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Leahy Edge +350 0.245 · 89.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 54

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Gordon Edge +265 0.180 · 92.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 12.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Leahy Edge +750 0.161 · 84.3 · 6.7% 100.0% 11.5% F B O D 42

· COL Cole Carrigg HOT vs Leahy Edge +700 0.189 · 87.3 · 7.1% 22.2% 13.5% F B O D 45

· COL Troy Johnston vs Leahy Edge — 0.118 · 89.6 · 4.8% 12.5% 7.2% F B O D 33

· STL Nolan Gorman HOT vs Gordon Edge +320 0.130 · 89.3 · 9.7% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Leahy +625 0.121 · 87.5 · 7.9% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Gordon Edge +625 0.121 · 86.0 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 40

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Gordon — 0.113 · 86.4 · 4.8% 8.3% 7.1% F B O D 36

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Leahy Edge +850 0.186 · 85.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 43

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Gordon +425 0.137 · 89.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Gordon — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Leahy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Carrigg Rumfield

Legend

attack side — vs Gordon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +255 · 65

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 8 mph slight_out 89°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

84°F

1:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

88°F

2:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · cross

90°F

3:10p

-5

↑

11 mph · cross

87°F

4:10p

-10

↑

12 mph · in

83°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 89°F, wind 8 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 58 C +255 · 25 0.213 92.5 11.4% 26.0%vs RHP 406 17.7% 8.3% 15.0% 32

2 Alec Burleson 51 C +265 COOL 58 0.180 92.1 10.2% 21.9%vs RHP 405 14.0% 0.0% 12.5% 38

3 Nolan Gorman 45 D +320 HOT 102 0.130 89.3 9.7% 14.6%vs RHP 405 8.8% 10.0% 9.4% 18

4 Nathan Church 40 D +625 COOL 147 0.121 86.0 7.6% 13.8%vs RHP 386 8.0% 9.1% 8.2% 37

5 Ivan Herrera 38 D +425 · 156 0.137 89.3 7.1% 18.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 38

6 José Fermín 36 D — COOL 175 0.113 86.4 4.8% 6.2%vs RHP 390 5.7% 8.3% 7.1% 37

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 65 C+ +255 COOL 9 0.279 90.4 12.4% 38.0%vs RHP 412 23.3% 20.0% 24.5% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 54 C +350 COOL 42 0.245 89.5 9.7% 22.2%vs RHP 415 16.5% 0.0% 17.5% 32

3 Cole Carrigg 45 D +700 HOT 96 0.189 87.3 7.1% 13.3%vs RHP 402 8.1% 22.2% 13.5% 36

4 Jake Mccarthy 43 D +850 · 115 0.186 85.3 7.1% 15.4%vs RHP 414 10.5% 0.0% 12.2% 47

5 Tj Rumfield 42 D +750 HOT 126 0.161 84.3 6.7% 13.1%vs RHP 410 10.5% 100.0% 11.5% 36

6 Ezequiel Tovar 38 D +625 WARM 160 0.121 87.5 7.9% 13.3%vs RHP 409 7.5% 10.0% 7.5% 21

7 Troy Johnston 33 D — WARM 190 0.118 89.6 4.8% 4.1%vs RHP 411 2.0% 12.5% 7.2% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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