TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.98×

CWS @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph cross 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

1:15p

-9 ↑

2:15p

-9 ↑

3:15p

-9 ↑

4:15p

-10 ↑

5:15p

best window is early — 1:15p at -9

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 12 · vs Sandlin ⟷ Kyle Teel conv 28 · vs McGreevy → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK David Sandlin RHP · CWS

leak 98

2.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.99 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker — C ●●○○○

2 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

3 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 64

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Teel — D ●●●●○

2 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●○○

3 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 18.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.220 · 88.7 · 11.0% 23.1% 21.5% F B O C 54

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.265 · 94.0 · 13.5% 16.7% 25.9% F B O C+ 60

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Sandlin — 0.208 · 92.4 · 10.9% 10.0% 14.4% F B O C 52

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs McGreevy — 0.224 · 90.5 · 11.3% 8.3% 11.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· CWS Kyle Teel vs McGreevy Edge — 0.168 · 84.2 · 11.2% 40.0% 16.6% F B O D 44

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.183 · 92.0 · 10.0% 8.3% 12.9% F B O D 48

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Sandlin Edge — 0.132 · 89.6 · 9.8% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 40

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs McGreevy — 0.132 · 87.3 · 6.2% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 33

· STL Thomas Saggese vs Sandlin — 0.158 · 90.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 41

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs McGreevy Edge — 0.177 · 89.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· CWS Tristan Peters vs McGreevy Edge — 0.183 · 87.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· STL Bryan Torres COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.117 · 87.0 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 33

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Sandlin — 0.134 · 89.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 33

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Sandlin Edge — 0.120 · 85.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 34

· CWS Brenton Doyle vs McGreevy — 0.087 · 88.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· STL Masyn Winn vs Sandlin — 0.088 · 88.2 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.120 · 87.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.6% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 19.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.8% 15.9% 15.2% 18.8% C+ 60 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.2% 10.0% 14.6% 12.7% C 54 —

Miguel Vargas R

15.2% 10.4% 12.8% 13.5% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

113

Kyle Teel L Edge

19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% D 44 —

150

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.9% 3.8% 4.7% 8.8% D 41 —

174

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.7% 4.0% 1.8% 5.8% D 38 —

210

Chase Meidroth R

4.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% D 33 —

229

Brenton Doyle R

4.8% 7.1% 9.5% 6.3% D 31 —

230

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.6% 3.8% 0.0% 5.0% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.6% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.3% ← leak BRK 31.1% OFF 6.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

13.6% 10.5% 17.5% 12.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.7% 9.7% 10.4% 10.9% D 48 —

144

Thomas Saggese R

10.4% 6.9% 11.1% 9.3% D 41 —

159

Nolan Gorman L Edge

15.5% 2.9% 7.1% 10.6% D 40 —

206

Nathan Church L Edge

6.2% 6.1% 4.9% 5.9% D 34 —

209

Ivan Herrera R

5.4% 4.6% 8.2% 5.4% D 33 —

212

Bryan Torres L Edge

5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% D 33 —

239

Masyn Winn R

4.0% 1.9% 5.7% 3.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.3% usage) carries Sandlin's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Teel

Legend

attack side — vs Sandlin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Colson Montgomery — · 54

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 10 mph cross 86°F open

-9

↑

9 mph · cross

87°F

1:15p · peak

-9

↑

9 mph · cross

87°F

2:15p

-9

↑

9 mph · cross

87°F

3:15p

-9

↑

9 mph · cross

86°F

4:15p

-10

↑

8 mph · cross

85°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 86°F, wind 10 mph N (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 60 C+ — COOL 18 0.265 94.0 13.5% 36.2%vs RHP 401 18.5% 16.7% 25.9% 23

2 Colson Montgomery 54 C — COOL 46 0.220 88.7 11.0% 27.6%vs RHP 397 21.8% 23.1% 21.5% 24

3 Miguel Vargas 51 C — COOL 66 0.224 90.5 11.3% 16.8%vs RHP 392 19.4% 8.3% 11.5% 38

4 Kyle Teel 44 D — WARM 113 0.168 84.2 11.2% 28.6%vs RHP 399 20.0% 40.0% 16.6% 12

5 Andrew Benintendi 41 D — WARM 150 0.177 89.2 9.2% 15.6%vs RHP 388 12.0% 0.0% 8.9% 26

6 Tristan Peters 38 D — · 174 0.183 87.5 7.4% 13.2%vs RHP 377 11.0% 0.0% 8.9% 32

7 Chase Meidroth 33 D — WARM 210 0.132 87.3 6.2% 13.3%vs RHP 379 7.8% 8.3% 9.0% 29

8 Brenton Doyle 31 D — WARM 229 0.087 88.0 7.7% 6.2%vs RHP 405 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% 3

9 Sam Antonacci 31 D — COOL 230 0.120 87.2 6.9% 11.3%vs RHP 390 7.3% 0.0% 6.2% 38

vs David Sandlin · RHP 2.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.99 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 52 C — COOL 59 0.208 92.4 10.9% 25.7%vs RHP 406 17.2% 10.0% 14.4% 28

2 Alec Burleson 48 D — COOL 84 0.183 92.0 10.0% 21.8%vs RHP 406 14.1% 8.3% 12.9% 36

3 Thomas Saggese 41 D — · 144 0.158 90.0 9.5% 8.3%vs RHP 399 5.9% 0.0% 14.3% 37

4 Nolan Gorman 40 D — WARM 159 0.132 89.6 9.8% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.6% 9.1% 8.5% 23

5 Nathan Church 34 D — COOL 206 0.120 85.9 7.2% 13.6%vs RHP 386 7.5% 0.0% 8.3% 38

6 Ivan Herrera 33 D — · 209 0.134 89.3 7.1% 19.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 41

7 Bryan Torres 33 D — COOL 212 0.117 87.0 5.6% 18.2%vs RHP 370 5.7% 0.0% 8.9% 20

8 Masyn Winn 29 D — WARM 239 0.088 88.2 5.7% 8.2%vs RHP 385 4.1% 0.0% 7.2% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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