TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.17×

TEX @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph out 99°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:10p

+3 ↑

2:10p

+2 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

-2 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +3

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 24 · vs Quantrill ⟷ Justin Foscue conv 28 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Corey Seager

ATTACK Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 56

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll — C ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte — D ●●○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 36

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Justin Foscue — C ●●●●○

2 Corey Seager — C ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corey Seager: 14.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Justin Foscue vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.228 · 89.4 · 9.2% 33.3% 22.9% F B O C 50

· TEX Corey Seager ✶ vs Rodriguez — 0.200 · 91.6 · 10.7% 30.8% 19.2% F B O C 52

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Quantrill Edge — 0.229 · 91.8 · 9.7% 11.1% 12.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Quantrill — 0.199 · 84.9 · 7.1% 27.3% 19.9% F B O D 46

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.194 · 90.3 · 9.6% 15.4% 21.1% F B O D 48

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.172 · 89.0 · 6.8% 23.1% 12.8% F B O D 41

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.200 · 88.9 · 7.0% 15.4% 12.9% F B O D 44

· TEX Elias Díaz HOT vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.165 · 87.9 · 8.3% 12.5% 10.6% F B O D 40

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.193 · 90.2 · 8.7% 11.1% 10.4% F B O D 45

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Quantrill — 0.159 · 90.6 · 8.8% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 41

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Quantrill — 0.162 · 89.2 · 7.8% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· AZ James Mccann HOT vs Quantrill — 0.152 · 89.8 · 8.3% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 36

· TEX Danny Jansen vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.168 · 87.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 37

· AZ Jordan Lawlar vs Quantrill — 0.158 · 87.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 37

· TEX Josh Jung vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.145 · 90.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.151 · 92.2 · 8.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 38

· AZ Lars Nootbaar COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.138 · 92.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.2% ← leak OFF 26.9% BRK 12.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corey Seager L

14.1% 18.6% 13.6% 14.8% C 52 —

Justin Foscue R Edge

11.5% 10.5% 11.4% 11.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R Edge

11.7% 17.5% 11.4% 12.3% D 48 —

118

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.7% 10.3% 9.5% 7.2% D 44 —

147

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

7.5% 0.0% 6.4% 6.2% D 41 —

157

Elias Díaz R Edge

7.8% 3.6% 14.3% 9.1% D 40 —

176

Brandon Nimmo L

7.7% 6.3% 15.6% 9.5% D 38 —

179

Danny Jansen R Edge

7.9% 0.0% 7.4% 7.0% D 37 —

192

Josh Jung R Edge

8.4% 3.4% 3.2% 6.2% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.2% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 69.3% ← leak OFF 22.8% BRK 7.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

13.7% 8.0% 13.1% 12.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.6% 4.8% 1.6% 6.4% D 46 —

104

Ketel Marte S Edge

12.8% 4.2% 8.2% 9.7% D 45 —

149

Tim Tawa R

9.6% 11.1% 11.5% 10.3% D 41 —

168

Gabriel Moreno R

7.9% 7.7% 7.5% 7.7% D 39 —

181

Jordan Lawlar R

7.0% 11.1% 0.0% 6.1% D 37 —

188

James Mccann R

11.3% 0.0% 8.3% 8.8% D 36 —

197

Lars Nootbaar L Edge

11.3% 4.5% 13.2% 10.1% D 36 —

245

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.4% 1.8% 1.2% 2.6% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.3% usage) carries Quantrill's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Seager Foscue Burger Langford Duran Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Quantrill fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Justin Foscue — · 50

Corey Seager — · 52

Nolan Arenado — · 46

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph out 99°F retractable

↑

4 mph · out

100°F

1:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

100°F

2:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

100°F

3:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

99°F

4:10p

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

98°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 99°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corey Seager ✶ 52 C — · 56 0.200 91.6 10.7% 21.7%vs LHP 394 18.0% 30.8% 19.2% 43

2 Justin Foscue 50 C — WARM 67 0.228 89.4 9.2% 28.6%vs LHP 404 19.4% 33.3% 22.9% 20

3 Jake Burger 48 D — COOL 80 0.194 90.3 9.6% 37.5%vs LHP 402 16.4% 15.4% 21.1% 29

4 Wyatt Langford 44 D — COOL 118 0.200 88.9 7.0% 13.3%vs LHP 399 15.6% 15.4% 12.9% 31

5 Ezequiel Duran 41 D — · 147 0.172 89.0 6.8% 16.0%vs LHP 397 13.2% 23.1% 12.8% 42

6 Elias Díaz 40 D — HOT 157 0.165 87.9 8.3% 37.5%vs LHP 392 14.0% 12.5% 10.6% 21

7 Brandon Nimmo 38 D — COOL 176 0.151 92.2 8.4% 15.2%vs LHP 404 9.4% 0.0% 7.9% 37

8 Danny Jansen 37 D — · 179 0.168 87.3 7.3% 25.0%vs LHP 397 8.9% 0.0% 12.2% 16

9 Josh Jung 36 D — WARM 192 0.145 90.6 6.8% 13.3%vs LHP 386 9.9% 0.0% 9.0% 5

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 50 C — · 72 0.229 91.8 9.7% 15.9%vs RHP 402 13.4% 11.1% 12.6% 23

2 Nolan Arenado 46 D — · 94 0.199 84.9 7.1% 21.9%vs RHP 390 15.9% 27.3% 19.9% 29

3 Ketel Marte 45 D — COOL 104 0.193 90.2 8.7% 14.9%vs RHP 408 14.8% 11.1% 10.4% 37

4 Tim Tawa 41 D — COOL 149 0.159 90.6 8.8% 25.0%vs RHP 399 10.2% 11.1% 9.7% 22

5 Gabriel Moreno 39 D — · 168 0.162 89.2 7.8% 13.1%vs RHP 400 10.0% 10.0% 8.6% 36

6 Jordan Lawlar 37 D — WARM 181 0.158 87.8 6.2% 12.5%vs RHP 388 15.4% 0.0% 10.5% 16

7 James Mccann 36 D — HOT 188 0.152 89.8 8.3% 31.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 5

8 Lars Nootbaar 36 D — COOL 197 0.138 92.0 8.9% 10.9%vs RHP 433 1.9% 0.0% 7.0% 18

9 Geraldo Perdomo 28 D — COOL 245 0.112 87.4 4.6% 9.4%vs RHP 383 6.0% 0.0% 6.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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