TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CHC

Suppressed air · 0.79×

PIT @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 11 mph in 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:20p

-7 ↑

2:20p

-7 ↑

3:20p

-7 ↑

4:20p

-5 ↑

5:20p

conditions build late — the 5:20p window peaks -5

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 32 · vs Chandler ⟷ Ryan O'Hearn conv 58 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 74

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Michael Conforto — C ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman — C ●●●○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 13

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ryan O'Hearn — C ●●●●●

2 Henry Davis — C ●●●○○

3 Rafael Flores Jr. — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Boyd — 0.188 · 89.3 · 8.0% 100.0% 15.0% F B O C 55

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Chandler Edge — 0.287 · 90.5 · 8.9% 30.8% 34.1% F B O B 71

· CHC Michael Conforto vs Chandler Edge — 0.238 · 90.7 · 8.2% 12.5% 30.7% F B O C 58

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Chandler — 0.186 · 88.1 · 5.8% 23.1% 19.0% F B O C 52

· PIT Henry Davis vs Boyd Edge — 0.133 · 90.2 · 8.8% 25.0% 16.3% F B O C 50

· PIT Rafael Flores Jr. COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.250 · 91.3 · 11.5% 12.5% 21.2% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Michael Busch vs Chandler Edge — 0.157 · 88.5 · 7.2% 16.7% 13.1% F B O C 50

· PIT Bryan Reynolds HOT vs Boyd Edge — 0.164 · 91.1 · 10.1% 16.7% 12.6% F B O C 55

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Boyd — 0.206 · 94.9 · 12.1% 8.3% 16.7% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Chandler — 0.210 · 88.4 · 7.8% 8.3% 12.9% F B O C 55

· CHC Ian Happ vs Chandler Edge — 0.191 · 89.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Boyd Edge — 0.069 · 86.6 · 4.7% 12.5% 8.5% F B O D 36

· CHC Pedro Ramirez vs Chandler Edge — 0.167 · 88.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Chandler — 0.093 · 85.9 · 2.8% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 34

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.124 · 87.9 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.085 · 85.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Boyd Edge — 0.087 · 86.1 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

· CHC Miguel Amaya COOL vs Chandler — 0.126 · 87.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 28.0% OFF 27.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Oneil Cruz L

16.2% 18.0% 11.9% 15.8% C+ 63 —

Rafael Flores Jr. R Edge

13.3% 17.4% 10.0% 14.1% C+ 61 —

Ryan O'Hearn L

7.9% 6.8% 3.3% 7.1% C 55 —

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

12.8% 13.1% 8.0% 11.9% C 55 —

Henry Davis R Edge

9.0% 5.7% 9.5% 8.1% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

107

Konnor Griffin R Edge

8.3% 7.6% 5.3% 7.7% D 45 —

185

Nick Gonzales R Edge

3.1% 4.2% 0.0% 3.1% D 37 —

195

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.5% 2.0% 2.9% 2.5% D 36 —

202

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.1% 1.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.5% ← leak BRK 28.9% OFF 14.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.5% 16.7% 12.5% 13.2% B 71 —

Neutral · 5

Michael Conforto L Edge

9.7% 14.8% 10.3% 10.7% C 58 —

Seiya Suzuki R

11.4% 9.0% 10.3% 10.4% C 55 —

Ian Happ S Edge

14.6% 14.0% 2.4% 11.3% C 54 —

Alex Bregman R

4.2% 8.3% 9.3% 5.7% C 52 —

Michael Busch L Edge

12.1% 5.4% 1.9% 9.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

122

Pedro Ramirez S Edge

4.7% 10.3% 0.0% 5.0% D 43 —

127

Miguel Amaya R

7.5% 7.1% 0.0% 6.7% D 43 —

208

Nico Hoerner R

1.7% 0.8% 1.8% 1.5% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.5% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jr. O'Hearn Reynolds Davis Crow-Armstrong Conforto Bregman Busch

Legend

attack side — vs Chandler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 71

Alex Bregman — · 52

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 11 mph in 72°F open

-7

↑

13 mph · in

69°F

1:20p

-7

↑

13 mph · in

69°F

2:20p

-7

↑

13 mph · in

69°F

3:20p

-7

↑

13 mph · in

69°F

4:20p

-5

↑

12 mph · cross

68°F

5:20p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.79× 72°F, wind 11 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 63 C+ — COOL 11 0.206 94.9 12.1% 40.0%vs LHP 414 22.1% 8.3% 16.7% 32

2 Rafael Flores Jr. 61 C+ — COOL 16 0.250 91.3 11.5% 26.7%vs LHP 407 21.1% 12.5% 21.2% 28

3 Ryan O'Hearn 55 C — COOL 40 0.188 89.3 8.0% 16.7%vs LHP 385 14.5% 100.0% 15.0% 5

4 Bryan Reynolds 55 C — HOT 43 0.164 91.1 10.1% 15.4%vs LHP 410 11.0% 16.7% 12.6% 40

5 Henry Davis 50 C — · 69 0.133 90.2 8.8% 12.5%vs LHP 387 10.4% 25.0% 16.3% 11

6 Konnor Griffin 45 D — COOL 107 0.124 87.9 8.3% 9.1%vs LHP 401 5.7% 0.0% 9.0% 22

7 Nick Gonzales 37 D — · 185 0.087 86.1 5.2% 3.2%vs LHP 397 5.9% 0.0% 8.1% 31

8 Jared Triolo 36 D — WARM 195 0.069 86.6 4.7% 5.6%vs LHP 409 2.4% 12.5% 8.5% 21

9 Jake Mangum 35 D — COOL 202 0.085 85.5 4.1% 5.6%vs LHP 393 4.0% 0.0% 8.5% 29

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 71 B — WARM 3 0.287 90.5 8.9% 28.3%vs RHP 397 22.8% 30.8% 34.1% 37

2 Michael Conforto 58 C — · 28 0.238 90.7 8.2% 21.4%vs RHP 397 10.5% 12.5% 30.7% 21

3 Seiya Suzuki 55 C — · 42 0.210 88.4 7.8% 19.1%vs RHP 406 16.0% 8.3% 12.9% 38

4 Ian Happ 54 C — WARM 48 0.191 89.3 8.2% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.0% 0.0% 15.1% 20

5 Alex Bregman 52 C — WARM 57 0.186 88.1 5.8% 18.1%vs RHP 390 13.0% 23.1% 19.0% 43

6 Michael Busch 50 C — · 71 0.157 88.5 7.2% 12.4%vs RHP 403 13.5% 16.7% 13.1% 33

7 Pedro Ramirez 43 D — WARM 122 0.167 88.8 5.5% 9.4%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 28

8 Miguel Amaya 43 D — COOL 127 0.126 87.6 6.2% 13.3%vs RHP 387 8.3% 0.0% 7.5% 8

9 Nico Hoerner 34 D — WARM 208 0.093 85.9 2.8% 6.7%vs RHP 383 5.5% 7.7% 6.7% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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