TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.11×

CLE @ MIN

Target Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph out 68°F Roof open

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

+6 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +7

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 30 · vs Bibee ⟷ Nathaniel Lowe conv 23 · vs Ryan → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 93

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●●●●

2 Ryan Jeffers — C ●●●●○

3 Trevor Larnach — D ●●○○○

FADE Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 87

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathaniel Lowe — D ●●●●○

2 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

3 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Bibee Edge — 0.230 · 92.4 · 9.9% 33.3% 26.8% F B O C 59

· MIN Ryan Jeffers vs Bibee — 0.226 · 89.0 · 9.6% 30.0% 23.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Ryan Edge — 0.205 · 89.3 · 9.3% 22.2% 24.3% F B O D 49

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Ryan Edge — 0.140 · 87.8 · 7.1% 27.3% 13.6% F B O D 39

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.129 · 86.9 · 5.6% 25.0% 13.1% F B O D 35

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.122 · 90.4 · 8.3% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 37

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Ryan Edge — 0.194 · 87.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 22.1% F B O D 40

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Bibee Edge — 0.157 · 87.8 · 7.6% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 41

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Bibee Edge — 0.184 · 88.3 · 5.9% 8.3% 12.6% F B O D 43

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Bibee — 0.162 · 89.9 · 9.5% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 45

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Bibee — 0.112 · 85.5 · 5.3% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 33

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Ryan Edge — 0.166 · 91.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 37

· MIN Ryan Kreidler vs Bibee — 0.152 · 88.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 39

· MIN Walker Jenkins COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.135 · 86.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 37

· CLE Jo Adell COOL vs Ryan — 0.156 · 90.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 41

· CLE Angel Genao vs Ryan Edge — 0.095 · 91.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.060 · 83.6 · 2.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.7% ← leak BRK 32.8% OFF 12.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

9.4% 7.1% 9.8% 9.1% D 49 —

151

Jo Adell R

8.5% 8.1% 10.2% 8.6% D 41 —

152

Angel Martinez S Edge

7.0% 13.5% 3.8% 7.3% D 40 —

164

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.6% 2.9% 2.4% 4.6% D 39 —

177

Chase Delauter L Edge

7.9% 6.1% 1.4% 6.3% D 37 —

183

Patrick Bailey S Edge

8.7% 3.9% 4.0% 6.4% D 37 —

200

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.8% 3.8% 0.9% 3.1% D 35 —

224

Angel Genao S Edge

5.2% 5.6% 0.0% 4.4% D 32 —

254

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.7% usage) carries Ryan's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 68.7% ← leak BRK 16.2% OFF 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.9% 19.0% 11.5% 12.2% C 59 —

Ryan Jeffers R

12.9% 9.8% 6.9% 11.3% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

108

Royce Lewis R

13.3% 6.7% 11.4% 11.1% D 45 —

125

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.7% 0.9% 0.9% 4.3% D 43 —

148

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.4% 8.1% 6.1% 7.3% D 41 —

167

Ryan Kreidler R

9.6% 5.5% 6.2% 7.9% D 39 —

184

Walker Jenkins L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 3.8% D 37 —

219

Luke Keaschall R

4.4% 2.7% 0.0% 3.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (68.7% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Bazzana Rocchio Clemens Jeffers

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kody Clemens — · 59

Ryan Jeffers — · 54

Nathaniel Lowe — · 49

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 9 mph out 68°F open

↑

10 mph · out

69°F

1:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

69°F

2:10p

↑

10 mph · out

69°F

3:10p

↑

10 mph · out

69°F

4:10p

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9 mph · out

68°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 68°F, wind 9 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 49 D — WARM 75 0.205 89.3 9.3% 26.2%vs RHP 395 15.7% 22.2% 24.3% 26

2 Jo Adell 41 D — COOL 151 0.156 90.1 9.5% 11.4%vs RHP 414 12.8% 0.0% 8.0% 35

3 Angel Martinez 40 D — · 152 0.194 87.4 8.5% 22.7%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 23

4 Travis Bazzana 39 D — WARM 164 0.140 87.8 7.1% 16.1%vs RHP 394 11.0% 27.3% 13.6% 26

5 Chase Delauter 37 D — WARM 177 0.166 91.5 8.0% 20.7%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 29

6 Patrick Bailey 37 D — COOL 183 0.122 90.4 8.3% 15.9%vs RHP 409 7.0% 14.3% 9.7% 17

7 Brayan Rocchio 35 D — COOL 200 0.129 86.9 5.6% 12.3%vs RHP 384 8.6% 25.0% 13.1% 35

8 Angel Genao 32 D — · 224 0.095 91.1 6.7% 11.1%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 27

9 Steven Kwan 19 D — COOL 254 0.060 83.6 2.2% 2.8%vs RHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 6.6% 46

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 59 C — · 22 0.230 92.4 9.9% 21.6%vs RHP 390 18.8% 33.3% 26.8% 33

2 Ryan Jeffers 54 C — WARM 45 0.226 89.0 9.6% 24.4%vs RHP 397 15.6% 30.0% 23.1% 31

3 Royce Lewis 45 D — COOL 108 0.162 89.9 9.5% 15.6%vs RHP 402 13.5% 8.3% 8.8% 32

4 Brooks Lee 43 D — WARM 125 0.184 88.3 5.9% 20.8%vs RHP 374 16.2% 8.3% 12.6% 42

5 Trevor Larnach 41 D — WARM 148 0.157 87.8 7.6% 15.9%vs RHP 391 9.7% 11.1% 10.2% 20

6 Ryan Kreidler 39 D — WARM 167 0.152 88.0 7.9% 14.3%vs RHP 409 3.9% 0.0% 10.2% 5

7 Walker Jenkins 37 D — COOL 184 0.135 86.0 5.9% 20.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 21

8 Luke Keaschall 33 D — · 219 0.112 85.5 5.3% 10.0%vs RHP 378 7.0% 8.3% 6.6% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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