TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.39×

LAA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 6 mph slight_out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:35p

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2:35p

+8 ↑

3:35p

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4:35p

+8 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Zach Neto conv 20 · vs Cornelio ⟷ Keibert Ruiz conv 14 · vs Rodriguez → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Riley Cornelio RHP · WSH

leak 95

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — C+ ●●●○○

2 Jose Siri — C ●●●○○

3 Vaughn Grissom — C ●●○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 83

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Keibert Ruiz — C ●●○○○

2 Daylen Lile — C ●●○○○

3 Andres Chaparro — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 20.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Cornelio — 0.196 · 89.7 · 9.8% 18.2% 22.4% F B O C+ 60

· LAA Jose Siri vs Cornelio — 0.174 · 89.9 · 11.0% 20.0% 17.6% F B O C 56

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Cornelio — 0.145 · 87.8 · 7.7% 16.7% 13.9% F B O C 50

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.174 · 88.2 · 6.7% 14.3% 14.6% F B O C 52

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.180 · 88.7 · 9.2% 9.1% 18.4% F B O C 57

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Cornelio Edge — 0.147 · 88.6 · 8.4% 12.5% 14.0% F B O C 50

· LAA Mike Trout vs Cornelio — 0.184 · 89.9 · 11.3% 8.3% 16.0% F B O C 58

· WSH Andres Chaparro COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.246 · 89.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 23.7% F B O C 58

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.256 · 95.3 · 13.7% 0.0% 22.9% F B O B 73

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.230 · 89.6 · 9.6% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C 58

· WSH Abimelec Ortiz COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.180 · 89.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· LAA Denzer Guzman COOL vs Cornelio — 0.129 · 86.7 · 7.1% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 47

· WSH Jose Tena COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.150 · 90.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 49

· LAA Moises Ballesteros COOL vs Cornelio Edge — 0.122 · 90.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.139 · 87.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 47

· LAA Christian Moore COOL vs Cornelio — 0.088 · 88.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· LAA Wade Meckler vs Cornelio Edge — 0.093 · 86.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.1% BRK 49.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Zach Neto R

13.8% 8.5% 11.5% C+ 60 —

Mike Trout R

15.7% 19.0% 15.6% C 58 —

Jose Siri R

15.9% 13.9% 14.4% C 56 —

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.1% 4.3% 8.5% C 50 —

Vaughn Grissom R

9.1% 5.9% 7.0% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Denzer Guzman R

5.6% 5.2% 5.4% D 47 —

112

Moises Ballesteros L Edge

10.5% 9.8% 8.8% D 44 —

130

Christian Moore R

13.2% 0.0% 8.1% D 43 —

171

Wade Meckler L Edge

2.5% 8.3% 3.1% D 39 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Cornelio's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 21.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

19.5% 9.5% 27.7% 20.3% B 73 —

Neutral · 5

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.5% 10.7% 9.6% 10.2% C 58 —

Andres Chaparro R

14.1% 6.2% 10.0% 12.1% C 58 —

Daylen Lile L Edge

9.1% 3.8% 13.7% 9.2% C 57 —

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

7.1% 1.7% 4.0% 5.1% C 52 —

Abimelec Ortiz L Edge

11.9% 0.0% 9.1% 8.8% C 52 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jose Tena L Edge

8.8% 7.7% 9.1% 8.6% D 49 —

Jacob Young R

7.2% 2.8% 4.3% 5.9% D 47 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Siri Lowe Grissom Guzman Wood Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Cornelio fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.16× Wind 6 mph slight_out 86°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

86°F

1:35p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

86°F

2:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

86°F

3:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

86°F

4:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

86°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.39× 86°F, wind 6 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Riley Cornelio · RHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.70 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 60 C+ — COOL 20 0.196 89.7 9.8% 18.7%vs RHP 403 16.4% 18.2% 22.4% 30

2 Mike Trout 58 C — · 31 0.184 89.9 11.3% 21.1%vs RHP 409 13.5% 8.3% 16.0% 30

3 Jose Siri 56 C — WARM 35 0.174 89.9 11.0% 14.3%vs RHP 409 15.0% 20.0% 17.6% 16

4 Josh Lowe 50 C — WARM 73 0.147 88.6 8.4% 18.6%vs RHP 394 9.9% 12.5% 14.0% 10

5 Vaughn Grissom 50 C — · 74 0.145 87.8 7.7% 19.1%vs RHP 391 9.9% 16.7% 13.9% 36

6 Denzer Guzman 47 D — COOL 91 0.129 86.7 7.1% 7.7%vs RHP 387 10.7% 16.7% 10.6% 18

7 Moises Ballesteros 44 D — COOL 112 0.122 90.6 8.5% 20.0%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 26

8 Christian Moore 43 D — COOL 130 0.088 88.4 7.8% 11.1%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 34

9 Wade Meckler 39 D — · 171 0.093 86.8 5.1% 9.4%vs RHP 396 5.7% 0.0% 6.5% 32

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 73 B — · 2 0.256 95.3 13.7% 35.6%vs RHP 413 23.8% 0.0% 22.9% 22

2 Cj Abrams 58 C — WARM 26 0.230 89.6 9.6% 27.4%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 27

3 Andres Chaparro 58 C — COOL 27 0.246 89.6 10.7% 36.4%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 21

4 Daylen Lile 57 C — HOT 33 0.180 88.7 9.2% 13.7%vs RHP 400 11.4% 9.1% 18.4% 29

5 Keibert Ruiz 52 C — WARM 61 0.174 88.2 6.7% 10.9%vs RHP 380 11.1% 14.3% 14.6% 17

6 Abimelec Ortiz 52 C — COOL 62 0.180 89.2 9.1% 20.8%vs RHP 396 5.6% 0.0% 14.5% 19

7 Jose Tena 49 D — COOL 78 0.150 90.7 8.9% 20.6%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 5

8 Jacob Young 47 D — COOL 92 0.139 87.7 7.4% 11.9%vs RHP 399 6.5% 0.0% 10.2% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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