TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.93×

KC @ BOS

Fenway Park · 3:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 3 mph out 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

3:05p

-5 ↑

4:05p

-5 ↑

5:05p

-5 ↑

6:05p

-5 ↑

7:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -5 FIT

Best of game Bobby Witt Jr. conv 13 · vs Tolle ⟷ Adley Rutschman conv 22 · vs Cameron → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 95

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bobby Witt Jr. — D ●●○○○

2 Salvador Perez — D ●●○○○

3 Nick Loftin — D ●○○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 42

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Adley Rutschman — D ●●●○○

2 Roman Anthony — D ●●●○○

3 Wilyer Abreu — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: Match 18.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.241 · 89.7 · 10.2% 0.0% 18.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· BOS Adley Rutschman vs Cameron Edge — 0.183 · 88.7 · 7.5% 28.6% 16.2% F B O D 44

· BOS Roman Anthony vs Cameron — 0.137 · 92.6 · 9.7% 23.1% 12.6% F B O D 42

· KC Bobby Witt Jr. vs Tolle Edge — 0.170 · 92.2 · 9.0% 16.7% 10.1% F B O D 44

· KC Salvador Perez vs Tolle Edge — 0.151 · 89.0 · 8.3% 16.7% 7.7% F B O D 40

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Cameron — 0.210 · 89.8 · 9.8% 8.3% 12.3% F B O D 49

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Cameron Edge — 0.139 · 86.6 · 6.1% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 36

· KC Nick Loftin vs Tolle Edge — 0.145 · 87.0 · 5.4% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 33

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Tolle — 0.211 · 93.1 · 9.6% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 47

· BOS Jahmai Jones HOT vs Cameron Edge — 0.172 · 91.6 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 41

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Tolle — 0.158 · 89.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 35

· BOS Nate Eaton COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.139 · 88.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· KC Luke Maile vs Tolle Edge — 0.114 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 33

· KC Tyler Tolbert COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.120 · 85.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.129 · 83.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 30

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.116 · 88.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

· BOS Trevor Story vs Cameron Edge — 0.107 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Payton Tolle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Noah Cameron — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jr. Contreras Rutschman Anthony

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 3:05p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 3 mph out 68°F open

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

68°F

3:05p · peak

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

68°F

4:05p

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

68°F

5:05p

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

68°F

6:05p

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

68°F

7:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 68°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 47 D — COOL 86 0.211 93.1 9.6% 26.9%vs LHP 416 14.4% 0.0% 15.8% 17

2 Bobby Witt Jr. 44 D — · 118 0.170 92.2 9.0% 16.0%vs LHP 403 15.5% 16.7% 10.1% 38

3 Salvador Perez 40 D — · 161 0.151 89.0 8.3% 9.8%vs LHP 405 14.9% 16.7% 7.7% 43

4 Michael Massey 35 D — COOL 203 0.158 89.8 6.2% 25.0%vs LHP 399 7.0% 0.0% 11.6% 31

5 Luke Maile 33 D — WARM 213 0.114 83.9 5.4% 14.3%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 1

6 Nick Loftin 33 D — WARM 220 0.145 87.0 5.4% 3.5%vs LHP 397 8.8% 10.0% 6.6% 30

7 Tyler Tolbert 32 D — COOL 223 0.120 85.0 4.6% 8.3%vs LHP 386 11.5% 0.0% 8.2% 3

8 Isaac Collins 30 D — COOL 240 0.116 88.3 5.9% 7.4%vs LHP 394 5.0% 0.0% 6.4% 22

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 53 C — COOL 50 0.241 89.7 10.2% 24.1%vs LHP 405 19.2% 0.0% 18.5% 2

2 Wilyer Abreu 49 D — · 76 0.210 89.8 9.8% 16.2%vs LHP 406 16.0% 8.3% 12.3% 37

3 Adley Rutschman 44 D — WARM 112 0.183 88.7 7.5% 12.0%vs LHP 395 11.0% 28.6% 16.2% 19

4 Roman Anthony 42 D — WARM 134 0.137 92.6 9.7% 13.3% 387 8.0% 23.1% 12.6% 37

5 Jahmai Jones 41 D — HOT 146 0.172 91.6 9.0% 25.0%vs LHP 404 5.3% 0.0% 13.3% 4

6 Nate Eaton 37 D — COOL 185 0.139 88.6 8.0% 16.7% 409 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 4

7 Nick Sogard 36 D — · 195 0.139 86.6 6.1% 28.6%vs LHP 387 11.1% 8.3% 8.9% 32

8 Trevor Story 31 D — WARM 234 0.107 87.7 5.8% 0.0%vs LHP 412 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% 34

9 Caleb Durbin 30 D — COOL 239 0.129 83.4 4.6% 11.5%vs LHP 376 7.9% 0.0% 6.9% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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