TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.41×

SD @ SF

Oracle Park · 7:20p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 16 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

4:20p

+11 ↑

5:20p

+9 ↑

6:20p

+8 ↑

7:20p

+6 ↑

8:20p

best window is early — 4:20p at +12

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 16 · vs Webb ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 42 · vs Pivetta → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 54

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill — D ●●●○○

2 Manny Machado — D ●●○○○

3 Jake Cronenworth — D ●○○○○

FADE Nick Pivetta RHP · SD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.78 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge — D ●○○○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 63.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Pivetta Edge — 0.267 · 93.0 · 9.8% 63.6% 20.1% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Webb Edge — 0.190 · 91.3 · 8.5% 16.7% 16.2% F B O D 45

· SD Manny Machado vs Webb — 0.187 · 90.5 · 7.6% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 43

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.079 · 87.0 · 4.2% 10.0% 6.4% F B O D 24

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.189 · 92.5 · 9.4% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 42

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Pivetta Edge — 0.147 · 86.4 · 6.3% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 31

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Webb — 0.171 · 92.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 37

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Webb — 0.115 · 87.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 28

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Webb — 0.101 · 89.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 28

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Pivetta Edge — 0.125 · 87.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.0% ← leak OFF 24.1% BRK 19.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

111

Jackson Merrill L Edge

14.3% 8.3% 12.3% 12.5% D 45 —

128

Manny Machado R

12.2% 9.6% 5.2% 9.9% D 43 —

186

Fernando Tatis R

11.2% 16.4% 14.1% 12.6% D 37 —

246

Freddy Fermin R

3.5% 8.3% 4.7% 4.1% D 28 —

247

Xander Bogaerts R

6.7% 3.0% 4.0% 5.7% D 28 —

253

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.1% 2.8% 2.1% 2.8% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.0% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.8% ← leak BRK 33.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.2% 12.8% 12.5% C 59 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

141

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

11.1% 10.3% 11.2% D 42 —

233

Drew Gilbert L Edge

5.8% 6.8% 5.4% D 31 —

252

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.6% 2.2% 2.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.8% usage) carries Pivetta's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Machado Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Webb fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers — · 59

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 4:20p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 16 mph out 71°F open

+12

↑

16 mph · out

71°F

4:20p · peak

+11

↑

15 mph · out

71°F

5:20p

↑

14 mph · out

68°F

6:20p

↑

13 mph · out

66°F

7:20p

↑

11 mph · out

64°F

8:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 71°F, wind 16 mph W (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill 45 D — HOT 111 0.190 91.3 8.5% 21.5%vs RHP 410 16.4% 16.7% 16.2% 41

2 Manny Machado 43 D — WARM 128 0.187 90.5 7.6% 26.2%vs RHP 398 17.0% 18.2% 13.6% 33

3 Fernando Tatis 37 D — · 186 0.171 92.9 8.5% 15.6%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 41

4 Freddy Fermin 28 D — HOT 246 0.115 87.6 4.9% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 7.4% 6

5 Xander Bogaerts 28 D — WARM 247 0.101 89.3 5.8% 15.2%vs RHP 400 7.2% 0.0% 6.8% 34

6 Jake Cronenworth 24 D — COOL 253 0.079 87.0 4.2% 9.3%vs RHP 382 3.1% 10.0% 6.4% 31

vs Nick Pivetta · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.78 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 59 C — WARM 25 0.267 93.0 9.8% 29.8%vs RHP 398 23.1% 63.6% 20.1% 29

2 Bryce Eldridge 42 D — COOL 141 0.189 92.5 9.4% 17.5%vs RHP 398 17.7% 8.3% 8.0% 32

3 Drew Gilbert 31 D — COOL 233 0.147 86.4 6.3% 16.3%vs RHP 394 7.4% 9.1% 6.5% 19

4 Jung Hoo Lee 25 D — WARM 252 0.125 87.6 4.3% 9.5%vs RHP 382 5.2% 0.0% 5.0% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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