1
HRs allowed
3.7%
HR rate (pool)
9.7%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
23
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 23th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
38.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.0 EV · 403 ft
max EV allowed 106.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Nick Pivetta.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
53.7%
83.1
38.7°
1
-1.0
Curveball Breaking
17.8%
85.8
-2.6°
0
+3.4
Sweeper Breaking
13.8%
76.3
22.9°
0
-4.0
Cutter Hard
11.0%
78.4
22.7°
0
-1.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups27
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate3.7%
Pool HR/game day0.33
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB9.7% 23
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed38.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Fastball
Hard · 53.7% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle38.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches190
Curveball
Breaking · 17.8% usage
+3.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle-2.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches63
Sweeper
Breaking · 13.8% usage
-4.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.3 mph
Avg launch angle22.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches49
Cutter
Hard · 11.0% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.4 mph
Avg launch angle22.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches39
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Nick Pivetta.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.0 EV · 403 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-07
9
0
105.8
2026-04-01
9
0
104.7
2026-03-26
9
1
106.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Nick Pivetta isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.