TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.04×

CIN @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 62°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:10p

+5 ↑

2:10p

+5 ↑

3:10p

+4 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +5

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 37 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 25 · vs Burns → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 88

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Juan Brito — D ●●●●●

3 Tyler Stephenson — D ●●●○○

FADE Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 82

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●○○

3 Christian Yelich — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 31.8% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs Gasser Edge — 0.228 · 94.5 · 10.3% 41.7% 31.8% F B O C+ 61

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Burns Edge — 0.224 · 92.4 · 10.2% 22.2% 27.0% F B O C 55

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Burns — 0.202 · 91.7 · 9.9% 23.1% 13.4% F B O C 50

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Gasser Edge — 0.207 · 90.2 · 9.3% 8.3% 15.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CIN Juan Brito HOT vs Gasser Edge — 0.157 · 84.2 · 5.4% 50.0% 15.8% F B O D 43

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.146 · 89.2 · 8.8% 22.2% 13.4% F B O D 41

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Gasser Edge — 0.173 · 91.1 · 9.0% 18.2% 16.0% F B O D 47

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Burns Edge — 0.162 · 93.2 · 9.5% 18.2% 15.6% F B O D 44

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.178 · 90.1 · 7.4% 16.7% 14.4% F B O D 42

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Gasser Edge — 0.217 · 88.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 26.8% F B O D 46

· CIN Dane Myers vs Gasser Edge — 0.110 · 89.3 · 5.3% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 34

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Burns — 0.129 · 88.9 · 5.7% 11.1% 6.6% F B O D 33

· MIL Gary Sanchez HOT vs Burns — 0.218 · 88.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 40

· MIL Cooper Pratt vs Burns — 0.097 · 86.8 · 5.0% 9.1% 5.8% F B O D 30

· CIN Héctor Rodríguez COOL vs Gasser — 0.170 · 88.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 40

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Gasser — 0.202 · 88.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· CIN Jose Trevino COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.134 · 86.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· MIL Luis Lara COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.090 · 89.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.7% BRK 25.2% OFF 9.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.4% 12.7% 8.9% 15.5% C+ 61 —

Sal Stewart R Edge

14.7% 10.7% 8.3% 12.6% C 51 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

15.9% 6.8% 4.0% 12.2% D 47 —

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

14.2% 7.7% 4.3% 11.9% D 46 —

123

Juan Brito S Edge

12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% D 43 —

131

Jj Bleday L

12.0% 5.9% 6.2% 9.5% D 42 —

156

Héctor Rodríguez L

7.1% 5.3% 6.7% 6.6% D 40 —

194

Jose Trevino R Edge

1.9% 4.3% 0.0% 2.7% D 36 —

205

Dane Myers R Edge

3.8% 4.8% 4.3% 4.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gasser's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.7% ← leak BRK 38.6% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.2% 13.1% 12.2% 13.6% C 55 —

Jackson Chourio R

12.9% 11.0% 9.6% 11.9% C 50 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

115

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

13.8% 12.3% 5.3% 12.2% D 44 —

132

Brice Turang L Edge

8.3% 10.0% 2.8% 7.8% D 42 —

145

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.6% 8.2% 11.1% 9.4% D 41 —

154

Gary Sanchez R

12.1% 5.1% 0.0% 8.5% D 40 —

217

Joey Ortiz R

4.2% 5.1% 0.0% 4.1% D 33 —

235

Luis Lara S Edge

4.7% 0.0% 5.6% 3.5% D 30 —

238

Cooper Pratt R

5.7% 2.1% 0.0% 3.7% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stephenson Suarez Brito Bauers Chourio Mitchell Turang Yelich

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 61

Jake Bauers — · 55

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 9 mph out 62°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

62°F

1:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

62°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · out

62°F

3:10p

↑

7 mph · out

62°F

4:10p

↑

7 mph · out

62°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 62°F, wind 9 mph NW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 61 C+ — HOT 14 0.228 94.5 10.3% 41.7%vs LHP 402 18.0% 41.7% 31.8% 29

2 Sal Stewart 51 C — · 64 0.207 90.2 9.3% 27.6%vs LHP 397 17.3% 8.3% 15.1% 39

3 Tyler Stephenson 47 D — · 86 0.173 91.1 9.0% 8.7%vs LHP 392 10.2% 18.2% 16.0% 25

4 Eugenio Suarez 46 D — WARM 93 0.217 88.4 8.7% 27.8%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 21

5 Juan Brito 43 D — HOT 123 0.157 84.2 5.4% 11.1% 360 20.0% 50.0% 15.8% 16

6 Jj Bleday 42 D — COOL 131 0.202 88.3 8.2% 20.8%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 29

7 Héctor Rodríguez 40 D — COOL 156 0.170 88.3 7.1% 21.7% 402 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 32

8 Jose Trevino 36 D — COOL 194 0.134 86.0 4.3% 16.7% 384 15.4% 0.0% 8.6% 9

9 Dane Myers 34 D — WARM 205 0.110 89.3 5.3% 14.8%vs LHP 384 6.1% 12.5% 8.2% 23

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 55 C — · 36 0.224 92.4 10.2% 28.6%vs RHP 402 19.7% 22.2% 27.0% 20

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C — COOL 70 0.202 91.7 9.9% 19.5%vs RHP 400 17.6% 23.1% 13.4% 48

3 Garrett Mitchell 44 D — WARM 115 0.162 93.2 9.5% 22.2%vs RHP 415 8.5% 18.2% 15.6% 28

4 Brice Turang 42 D — COOL 132 0.178 90.1 7.4% 24.2%vs RHP 407 11.3% 16.7% 14.4% 34

5 Christian Yelich 41 D — COOL 145 0.146 89.2 8.8% 20.9%vs RHP 397 9.0% 22.2% 13.4% 29

6 Gary Sanchez 40 D — HOT 154 0.218 88.0 8.1% 25.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 5

7 Joey Ortiz 33 D — WARM 217 0.129 88.9 5.7% 16.7%vs RHP 390 7.1% 11.1% 6.6% 29

8 Luis Lara 30 D — COOL 235 0.090 89.0 5.9% 7.7%vs RHP 373 5.0% 0.0% 7.2% 21

9 Cooper Pratt 30 D — WARM 238 0.097 86.8 5.0% 8.0%vs RHP 399 7.9% 9.1% 5.8% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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