TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.85×

LAD @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph in 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:40p

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2:40p

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3:40p

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4:40p

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5:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -11 FIT

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 28 · vs Sheehan ⟷ Max Muncy conv 28 · vs Pérez → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Emmet Sheehan RHP · LAD

leak 96

1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández — C ●●●○○

3 Griffin Conine — C ●●○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 26

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts — D ●●●●○

3 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 10.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Pérez Edge — 0.245 · 90.5 · 11.4% 33.3% 22.2% F B O C 58

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Sheehan Edge — 0.220 · 92.6 · 11.2% 30.0% 25.5% F B O C 55

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Sheehan — 0.227 · 91.5 · 11.9% 15.4% 17.6% F B O C 54

· MIA Griffin Conine vs Sheehan Edge — 0.222 · 91.8 · 12.3% 11.1% 18.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Pérez — 0.184 · 90.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 18.8% F B O D 46

· LAD Kyle Tucker HOT vs Pérez Edge — 0.144 · 88.7 · 7.6% 25.0% 11.3% F B O D 38

· MIA Joe Mack vs Sheehan Edge — 0.172 · 88.5 · 9.2% 12.5% 12.3% F B O D 43

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Sheehan — 0.149 · 87.0 · 4.7% 15.4% 8.0% F B O D 34

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.155 · 89.5 · 9.0% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 39

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Sheehan Edge — 0.115 · 87.4 · 6.0% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 32

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Sheehan — 0.136 · 89.1 · 7.9% 7.7% 7.1% F B O D 36

· MIA Esteury Ruiz COOL vs Sheehan — 0.168 · 85.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· LAD Will Smith COOL vs Pérez — 0.139 · 90.0 · 11.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 39

· MIA Xavier Edwards vs Sheehan — 0.094 · 86.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 28

· LAD Miguel Rojas COOL vs Pérez — 0.121 · 86.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 31

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Pérez Edge — 0.077 · 89.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

· LAD Alex Call COOL vs Pérez — 0.073 · 83.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.5% ← leak BRK 35.6% OFF 8.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Max Muncy L Edge

13.7% 8.0% 4.8% 10.8% C 58 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

8.5% 6.0% 8.9% 8.0% D 46 —

169

Freddie Freeman L Edge

8.5% 7.4% 7.5% 8.1% D 39 —

170

Will Smith R

18.3% 3.6% 11.1% 12.7% D 39 —

172

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.1% 5.0% 1.2% 6.0% D 38 —

231

Miguel Rojas R

6.0% 4.3% 0.0% 4.9% D 31 —

240

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.7% 9.7% 0.0% 6.0% D 29 —

250

Alex Call R

1.3% 3.3% 0.0% 1.7% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.5% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.9% ← leak BRK 41.2% OFF 15.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.5% 22.2% 7.0% 12.7% C 55 —

Heriberto Hernández R

14.3% 13.3% 12.5% 13.8% C 54 —

Griffin Conine L Edge

16.5% 13.0% 14.8% 15.2% C 52 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

126

Joe Mack L Edge

8.3% 7.7% 9.1% 8.3% D 43 —

166

Esteury Ruiz R

8.3% 8.6% 5.3% 7.9% D 39 —

196

Otto Lopez R

8.2% 4.0% 3.9% 6.1% D 36 —

207

Javier Sanoja R

2.3% 2.7% 0.0% 2.1% D 34 —

223

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.5% 1.6% 6.5% 3.6% D 32 —

242

Xavier Edwards R

3.9% 2.1% 2.4% 3.2% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.9% usage) carries Sheehan's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Stowers Hernández Conine

Legend

attack side — vs Sheehan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Max Muncy — · 58

Kyle Stowers — · 55

Mookie Betts — · 46

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph in 87°F retractable

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↑

8 mph · in

80°F

1:40p · peak

-11

↑

8 mph · in

80°F

2:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

80°F

3:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

80°F

4:40p

-11

↑

9 mph · in

79°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.85× 87°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 58 C — · 30 0.245 90.5 11.4% 26.9%vs RHP 410 22.3% 33.3% 22.2% 50

2 Mookie Betts 46 D — WARM 95 0.184 90.1 8.7% 17.3%vs RHP 389 13.3% 33.3% 18.8% 38

3 Freddie Freeman 39 D — COOL 169 0.155 89.5 9.0% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.7% 8.3% 7.9% 19

4 Will Smith 39 D — COOL 170 0.139 90.0 11.3% 12.5%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 7.9% 25

5 Kyle Tucker 38 D — HOT 172 0.144 88.7 7.6% 11.5%vs RHP 390 8.7% 25.0% 11.3% 35

6 Miguel Rojas 31 D — COOL 231 0.121 86.9 7.0% 0.0%vs RHP 397 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 16

7 Alex Freeland 29 D — WARM 240 0.077 89.3 7.8% 9.7%vs RHP 373 2.6% 0.0% 5.9% 19

8 Alex Call 25 D — COOL 250 0.073 83.8 4.1% 0.0%vs RHP 368 8.3% 0.0% 5.9% 10

vs Emmet Sheehan · RHP 1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 55 C — WARM 38 0.220 92.6 11.2% 24.3%vs RHP 400 14.6% 30.0% 25.5% 24

2 Heriberto Hernández 54 C — · 47 0.227 91.5 11.9% 25.4%vs RHP 406 17.6% 15.4% 17.6% 34

3 Griffin Conine 52 C — · 58 0.222 91.8 12.3% 45.2%vs RHP 410 16.0% 11.1% 18.4% 33

4 Joe Mack 43 D — WARM 126 0.172 88.5 9.2% 28.6%vs RHP 409 13.8% 12.5% 12.3% 24

5 Esteury Ruiz 39 D — COOL 166 0.168 85.4 9.1% 20.0%vs RHP 384 9.1% 0.0% 10.3% 13

6 Otto Lopez 36 D — · 196 0.136 89.1 7.9% 8.6%vs RHP 402 6.2% 7.7% 7.1% 43

7 Javier Sanoja 34 D — · 207 0.149 87.0 4.7% 10.4%vs RHP 381 7.7% 15.4% 8.0% 49

8 Jakob Marsee 32 D — WARM 223 0.115 87.4 6.0% 11.4%vs RHP 382 7.6% 8.3% 7.6% 38

9 Xavier Edwards 28 D — WARM 242 0.094 86.7 5.7% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.8% 0.0% 7.7% 1

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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