TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.49×

PHI @ ATL

Truist Park · 1:35p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

1:35p

+11 ↑

2:35p

+11 ↑

3:35p

+11 ↑

4:35p

+11 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +11 FIT

Best of game Michael Harris II conv 25 · vs Painter ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 34 · vs Holmes → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 84

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Michael Harris II — C ●●●●○

2 Austin Riley — C ●●○○○

3 Matt Olson — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 78

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.281 · 92.4 · 12.0% 30.8% 37.0% F B O B 73

· ATL Michael Harris II vs Painter Edge — 0.199 · 90.4 · 9.3% 25.0% 24.6% F B O C 59

· ATL Austin Riley vs Painter — 0.145 · 91.4 · 10.1% 15.4% 14.1% F B O C 51

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.255 · 92.7 · 11.1% 7.7% 19.8% F B O C+ 66

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.227 · 90.5 · 9.5% 7.7% 19.0% F B O C 59

· ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. vs Painter — 0.192 · 90.2 · 10.2% 0.0% 26.4% F B O C 52

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.174 · 91.6 · 10.3% 7.7% 13.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Holmes — 0.145 · 88.5 · 7.3% 15.4% 10.4% F B O D 47

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Holmes — 0.126 · 89.7 · 6.7% 11.1% 9.1% F B O D 42

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Painter Edge — 0.162 · 87.1 · 5.7% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 46

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Holmes Edge — 0.090 · 87.2 · 3.3% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 33

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Holmes — 0.141 · 90.5 · 7.1% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 45

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Holmes Edge — 0.141 · 89.2 · 7.1% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 44

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.149 · 89.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 46

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.146 · 90.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Painter — 0.118 · 86.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· PHI Luis Arraez vs Holmes Edge — 0.110 · 86.3 · 3.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· ATL Ha-Seong Kim COOL vs Painter — 0.009 · 85.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.9% ← leak BRK 44.4% OFF 6.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.6% 14.8% 23.7% 16.8% B 73 —

Neutral · 1

Bryce Harper L Edge

12.1% 12.2% 6.1% 10.9% C 59 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Trea Turner R

7.6% 5.1% 5.7% 6.5% D 47 —

Brandon Marsh L Edge

6.8% 14.4% 3.2% 8.2% D 46 —

106

Alec Bohm R

4.9% 6.8% 9.8% 5.9% D 45 —

121

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.7% 3.4% 5.1% 6.0% D 44 —

137

J.T. Realmuto R

4.7% 6.8% 3.7% 5.2% D 42 —

214

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% D 33 —

215

Luis Arraez L Edge

1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.9% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.3% ← leak BRK 41.2% OFF 17.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Matt Olson L Edge

16.3% 11.8% 11.5% 14.4% C+ 66 —

Michael Harris II L Edge

6.7% 13.5% 12.2% 10.0% C 59 —

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.3% 17.3% 6.8% 12.8% C 55 —

Ronald Acuna Jr. R

11.8% 15.3% 11.1% 12.5% C 52 —

Austin Riley R

12.7% 13.3% 7.3% 12.2% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.1% 1.6% 2.3% 3.9% D 46 —

105

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.7% 6.7% 7.1% 6.8% D 45 —

191

Mauricio Dubon R

2.7% 5.6% 4.0% 3.7% D 36 —

216

Ha-Seong Kim R

2.1% 4.8% 0.0% 2.7% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.3% usage) carries Painter's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Olson II Jr. Riley

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 73

Michael Harris II — · 59

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph out 89°F open

+11

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

1:35p · peak

+11

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

2:35p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

3:35p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

4:35p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

89°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 89°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 73 B — COOL 1 0.281 92.4 12.0% 42.9%vs RHP 403 23.7% 30.8% 37.0% 34

2 Bryce Harper 59 C — COOL 24 0.227 90.5 9.5% 34.8%vs RHP 402 18.1% 7.7% 19.0% 32

3 Trea Turner 47 D — · 88 0.145 88.5 7.3% 19.5%vs RHP 390 12.9% 15.4% 10.4% 43

4 Brandon Marsh 46 D — COOL 99 0.149 89.3 8.3% 17.9%vs RHP 391 10.7% 0.0% 10.5% 23

5 Alec Bohm 45 D — WARM 106 0.141 90.5 7.1% 12.9%vs RHP 394 10.3% 9.1% 9.3% 29

6 Bryson Stott 44 D — · 121 0.141 89.2 7.1% 9.2%vs RHP 393 7.3% 8.3% 8.7% 32

7 J.T. Realmuto 42 D — WARM 137 0.126 89.7 6.7% 17.0%vs RHP 397 4.8% 11.1% 9.1% 23

8 Justin Crawford 33 D — WARM 214 0.090 87.2 3.3% 4.2%vs RHP 382 2.8% 11.1% 7.4% 22

9 Luis Arraez 33 D — WARM 215 0.110 86.3 3.3% 3.7%vs RHP 372 4.0% 0.0% 7.4% 45

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 66 C+ — COOL 5 0.255 92.7 11.1% 28.1%vs RHP 408 22.7% 7.7% 19.8% 38

2 Michael Harris II 59 C — · 23 0.199 90.4 9.3% 23.9%vs RHP 397 18.8% 25.0% 24.6% 38

3 Drake Baldwin 55 C — COOL 41 0.174 91.6 10.3% 22.5%vs RHP 402 15.5% 7.7% 13.3% 39

4 Ronald Acuna Jr. 52 C — · 54 0.192 90.2 10.2% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% 44

5 Austin Riley 51 C — WARM 65 0.145 91.4 10.1% 17.5%vs RHP 409 9.5% 15.4% 14.1% 31

6 Ozzie Albies 46 D — WARM 97 0.162 87.1 5.7% 12.8%vs RHP 387 12.8% 8.3% 10.9% 39

7 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D — COOL 105 0.146 90.5 7.6% 13.9%vs RHP 389 7.4% 0.0% 10.0% 18

8 Mauricio Dubon 36 D — · 191 0.118 86.4 5.6% 9.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 40

9 Ha-Seong Kim 33 D — COOL 216 0.009 85.9 4.8% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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