TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.10×

NYM @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 5 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:35p

+8 ↑

2:35p

+8 ↑

3:35p

+8 ↑

4:35p

+8 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Luis García Jr. conv 32 · vs Scott ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 37 · vs Schlittler → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 84

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Luis García Jr. — C+ ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

3 Anthony Volpe — D ●●●○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 37

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●●

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●●

3 Francisco Alvarez — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Schlittler Edge — 0.214 · 91.0 · 8.5% 50.0% 24.9% F B O C 58

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Schlittler Edge — 0.258 · 92.3 · 10.5% 36.4% 32.0% F B O C+ 65

· NYY Luis García Jr. vs Scott Edge — 0.263 · 91.6 · 9.1% 33.3% 29.9% F B O C+ 63

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.263 · 92.0 · 9.8% 20.0% 26.4% F B O C+ 65

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Schlittler — 0.170 · 90.3 · 11.1% 14.3% 24.2% F B O C 52

· NYY Spencer Jones vs Scott Edge — 0.189 · 94.6 · 10.4% 0.0% 24.1% F B O C 53

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs Scott — 0.267 · 94.0 · 11.9% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYY Anthony Volpe vs Scott — 0.094 · 87.9 · 5.6% 33.3% 11.1% F B O D 39

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Scott Edge — 0.168 · 89.1 · 6.5% 25.0% 16.0% F B O D 48

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Schlittler Edge — 0.135 · 90.3 · 9.0% 16.7% 14.5% F B O D 44

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Schlittler Edge — 0.123 · 89.3 · 7.3% 18.2% 9.6% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Schlittler — 0.131 · 89.5 · 7.3% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 42

· NYM Jared Young vs Schlittler Edge — 0.166 · 89.9 · 7.4% 12.5% 11.0% F B O D 44

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.141 · 88.6 · 7.4% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 42

· NYY Austin Wells vs Scott Edge — 0.119 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 41

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.141 · 90.9 · 7.9% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Scott — 0.136 · 83.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 36

· NYM Nick Morabito vs Schlittler — 0.037 · 87.9 · — 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 89.1% ← leak BRK 10.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Juan Soto L Edge

18.5% 11.5% 14.1% C+ 65 —

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.4% 5.8% 9.3% C 58 —

Francisco Alvarez R

15.2% 16.2% 15.5% C 52 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

116

Brett Baty L Edge

9.2% 15.4% 9.9% D 44 —

119

Jared Young L Edge

7.1% 5.8% 7.2% D 44 —

136

Bo Bichette R

5.8% 9.9% 6.4% D 42 —

138

Carson Benge L Edge

6.0% 7.6% 6.6% D 42 —

158

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.2% 10.3% 7.0% D 40 —

248

Nick Morabito R

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (89.1% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.9% ← leak BRK 28.5% OFF 3.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ben Rice L Edge

16.8% 12.3% 10.6% 14.5% C+ 65 —

Luis García Jr. L Edge

13.4% 17.1% 6.8% 12.7% C+ 63 —

Aaron Judge R

18.8% 22.2% 21.4% 20.5% C+ 62 —

Spencer Jones L Edge

21.1% 2.5% 17.6% 14.8% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Cody Bellinger L Edge

4.4% 11.4% 8.2% 6.7% D 48 —

142

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.0% 3.7% 8.8% 9.3% D 41 —

143

Austin Wells L Edge

9.2% 4.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 41 —

165

Anthony Volpe R

5.6% 2.0% 6.7% 4.4% D 39 —

189

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.9% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Alvarez Baty Bichette Ewing Rice Jr. Bellinger Volpe

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Francisco Lindor — · 58

Juan Soto — · 65

Luis García Jr. — · 63

Ben Rice — · 65

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 5 mph out 74°F open

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

1:35p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

2:35p

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

3:35p

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

4:35p

↑

5 mph · out

77°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 74°F, wind 5 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 65 C+ — · 7 0.258 92.3 10.5% 31.8%vs RHP 401 21.2% 36.4% 32.0% 40

2 Francisco Lindor 58 C — · 29 0.214 91.0 8.5% 20.6%vs RHP 393 17.0% 50.0% 24.9% 42

3 Francisco Alvarez 52 C — WARM 55 0.170 90.3 11.1% 28.6%vs RHP 402 9.3% 14.3% 24.2% 15

4 Brett Baty 44 D — HOT 116 0.135 90.3 9.0% 14.5%vs RHP 396 7.2% 16.7% 14.5% 15

5 Jared Young 44 D — · 119 0.166 89.9 7.4% 17.4%vs RHP 400 7.6% 12.5% 11.0% 28

6 Bo Bichette 42 D — WARM 136 0.131 89.5 7.3% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.5% 16.7% 9.4% 39

7 Carson Benge 42 D — COOL 138 0.141 88.6 7.4% 13.9%vs RHP 396 10.6% 8.3% 8.9% 33

8 A.J. Ewing 40 D — · 158 0.123 89.3 7.3% 12.0%vs RHP 401 5.6% 18.2% 9.6% 34

9 Nick Morabito 26 D — · 248 0.037 87.9 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 14

vs Christian Scott · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 65 C+ — COOL 8 0.263 92.0 9.8% 29.9%vs RHP 395 23.7% 20.0% 26.4% 32

2 Luis García Jr. 63 C+ — WARM 10 0.263 91.6 9.1% 36.5%vs RHP 398 15.3% 33.3% 29.9% 30

3 Aaron Judge 62 C+ — COOL 13 0.267 94.0 11.9% 32.4%vs RHP 404 21.4% 0.0% 16.6% 8

4 Spencer Jones 53 C — · 50 0.189 94.6 10.4% 18.9%vs RHP 395 11.3% 0.0% 24.1% 22

5 Cody Bellinger 48 D — WARM 82 0.168 89.1 6.5% 12.3%vs RHP 376 11.1% 25.0% 16.0% 44

6 Ryan Mcmahon 41 D — COOL 142 0.141 90.9 7.9% 17.9%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 21

7 Austin Wells 41 D — WARM 143 0.119 89.2 6.7% 13.5%vs RHP 379 7.5% 0.0% 15.6% 24

8 Anthony Volpe 39 D — WARM 165 0.094 87.9 5.6% 7.7%vs RHP 381 3.5% 33.3% 11.1% 11

9 Jose Caballero 36 D — WARM 189 0.136 83.9 5.3% 21.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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