TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TOR

Playable air · 1.06×

BAL @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 1:37p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 14 mph cross 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-9 ↑

1:37p

-9 ↑

2:37p

-9 ↑

3:37p

-9 ↑

4:37p

-9 ↑

5:37p

conditions hold steady across the window · -9 FIT

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 31 · vs Rogers ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 28 · vs Cease → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 74

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●●●●

2 Brett Bateman — D ●●●●○

3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — D ●○○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 24

0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso — C ●●●●○

3 Christian Encarnacion-Strand — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Rogers Edge — 0.224 · 90.5 · 9.6% 36.4% 25.4% F B O C 56

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Cease — 0.243 · 91.3 · 8.5% 33.3% 21.9% F B O C 53

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Cease — 0.231 · 94.2 · 8.8% 23.1% 25.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· TOR Brett Bateman vs Rogers — 0.107 · 84.4 · 3.8% 40.0% 5.6% F B O D 36

· BAL Christian Encarnacion-Strand COOL vs Cease — 0.211 · 91.8 · 9.7% 14.3% 11.3% F B O D 46

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.175 · 89.2 · 6.2% 7.7% 12.5% F B O D 40

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs Rogers Edge — 0.093 · 90.6 · 6.8% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 32

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Cease Edge — 0.114 · 87.1 · 6.1% 10.0% 7.9% F B O D 31

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Cease Edge — 0.186 · 90.2 · 8.3% 0.0% 12.9% F B O D 42

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.148 · 88.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 37

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.152 · 88.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· TOR George Springer vs Rogers Edge — 0.158 · 88.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· BAL Dylan Beavers COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.142 · 88.0 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· TOR Charles Mcadoo COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.099 · 84.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.129 · 88.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 30

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.110 · 84.1 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 28

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Rogers — 0.117 · 85.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.110 · 86.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.5% ← leak BRK 43.9% OFF 11.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.4% 10.3% 16.3% 14.0% C 55 —

Coby Mayo R

11.1% 15.3% 15.2% 13.1% C 53 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Christian Encarnacion-Strand R

16.7% 7.9% 35.7% 16.1% D 46 —

133

Samuel Basallo L Edge

14.5% 9.6% 11.5% 12.4% D 42 —

162

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.1% 7.0% 6.8% 7.0% D 40 —

173

Colton Cowser L Edge

11.9% 14.0% 3.8% 10.3% D 38 —

213

Dylan Beavers L Edge

10.2% 2.0% 2.9% 6.9% D 33 —

228

Jackson Holliday L Edge

7.1% 5.6% 6.2% 6.6% D 31 —

234

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.1% 7.9% 0.0% 4.1% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.5% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.1% ← leak OFF 20.8% BRK 14.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

14.4% 21.9% 9.5% 13.6% C 56 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

175

George Springer R Edge

6.1% 8.8% 7.3% 6.7% D 38 —

180

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.9% 10.3% 15.4% 7.0% D 37 —

198

Brett Bateman L

1.6% 0.0% 4.3% 2.1% D 36 —

225

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R Edge

6.0% 1.8% 10.1% 6.7% D 32 —

227

Charles Mcadoo R Edge

6.2% 0.0% 6.7% 5.1% D 31 —

241

Andres Gimenez L

3.5% 3.8% 2.9% 3.4% D 28 —

243

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% D 28 —

244

Myles Straw R Edge

3.7% 4.8% 0.0% 3.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.1% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Okamoto Bateman

Legend

attack side — vs Rogers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kazuma Okamoto — · 56

Coby Mayo — · 53

Pete Alonso — · 55

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 1:37p · roof retractable

Park 0.96× Wind 14 mph cross 79°F retractable

-9

↑

14 mph · cross

80°F

1:37p · peak

-9

↑

14 mph · cross

80°F

2:37p

-9

↑

14 mph · cross

80°F

3:37p

-9

↑

14 mph · cross

80°F

4:37p

-9

↑

14 mph · cross

78°F

5:37p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 79°F, wind 14 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 55 C — COOL 37 0.231 94.2 8.8% 31.2%vs RHP 402 21.6% 23.1% 25.6% 33

2 Coby Mayo 53 C — COOL 51 0.243 91.3 8.5% 13.3%vs RHP 411 18.4% 33.3% 21.9% 32

3 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 46 D — COOL 96 0.211 91.8 9.7% 13.3%vs RHP 411 18.5% 14.3% 11.3% 27

4 Samuel Basallo 42 D — · 133 0.186 90.2 8.3% 26.8%vs RHP 399 13.5% 0.0% 12.9% 20

5 Gunnar Henderson 40 D — COOL 162 0.175 89.2 6.2% 17.1%vs RHP 393 13.7% 7.7% 12.5% 35

6 Colton Cowser 38 D — COOL 173 0.152 88.0 7.6% 20.7%vs RHP 412 14.8% 0.0% 9.8% 14

7 Dylan Beavers 33 D — COOL 213 0.142 88.0 6.1% 12.8%vs RHP 393 7.1% 0.0% 8.3% 33

8 Jackson Holliday 31 D — · 228 0.114 87.1 6.1% 15.4%vs RHP 389 4.5% 10.0% 7.9% 32

9 Leody Taveras 30 D — COOL 234 0.129 88.2 4.8% 12.3%vs RHP 403 4.7% 0.0% 7.6% 13

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 56 C — WARM 34 0.224 90.5 9.6% 24.3%vs LHP 400 19.2% 36.4% 25.4% 28

2 George Springer 38 D — WARM 175 0.158 88.5 6.9% 9.7%vs LHP 395 10.7% 0.0% 8.8% 30

3 Brandon Valenzuela 37 D — COOL 180 0.148 88.1 6.9% 20.0%vs LHP 394 7.5% 0.0% 11.9% 6

4 Brett Bateman 36 D — WARM 198 0.107 84.4 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 0 40.0% 40.0% 5.6% 37

5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 32 D — WARM 225 0.093 90.6 6.8% 10.3%vs LHP 408 5.2% 11.1% 7.4% 40

6 Charles Mcadoo 31 D — COOL 227 0.099 84.9 5.8% 14.3%vs LHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 9

7 Andres Gimenez 28 D — COOL 241 0.117 85.4 4.8% 17.6%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 33

8 Ernie Clement 28 D — COOL 243 0.110 84.1 3.7% 8.9%vs LHP 376 6.6% 0.0% 7.2% 36

9 Myles Straw 28 D — COOL 244 0.110 86.2 4.5% 4.9%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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