TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ TB

Playable air · 1.06×

HOU @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Cam Smith conv 25 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 31 · vs Wesneski → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 80

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes — D ●●●○○

3 Yordan Alvarez — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 10

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●●●●

3 Victor Mesa Jr. — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Wesneski — 0.251 · 92.9 · 9.3% 30.8% 31.3% F B O C+ 64

· TB Victor Mesa Jr. COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.247 · 89.3 · 8.7% 25.0% 30.5% F B O C 57

· — Cam Smith COOL vs Peralta — 0.187 · 89.1 · 8.6% 27.3% 22.8% F B O C 55

· — Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.280 · 94.2 · 10.1% 9.1% 18.8% F B O C+ 66

· — Christian Walker COOL vs Peralta — 0.193 · 88.9 · 7.6% 8.3% 14.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Wesneski Edge — 0.136 · 86.0 · 5.4% 44.4% 15.3% F B O D 43

· — Isaac Paredes vs Peralta — 0.170 · 86.1 · 5.6% 23.1% 18.9% F B O D 48

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Wesneski Edge — 0.149 · 91.1 · 8.1% 18.2% 12.3% F B O D 47

· — Yainer Diaz vs Peralta — 0.156 · 88.9 · 6.4% 11.1% 12.4% F B O D 45

· — Jeremy Peña vs Peralta — 0.180 · 88.5 · 6.5% 7.7% 13.7% F B O D 48

· — Jose Altuve COOL vs Peralta — 0.153 · 85.5 · 5.3% 9.1% 10.6% F B O D 42

· — Daulton Varsho vs Peralta Edge — 0.133 · 86.7 · 6.6% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 42

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Wesneski — 0.163 · 91.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· — Taylor Trammell vs Peralta Edge — 0.151 · 88.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 46

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Wesneski — 0.155 · 85.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Wesneski — 0.098 · 85.2 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· TB Nick Madrigal COOL vs Wesneski — 0.022 · 87.2 · — 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 25

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.049 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.0% ← leak BRK 29.8% OFF 12.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Junior Caminero R

15.6% 10.9% 8.3% 13.0% C+ 64 —

Victor Mesa Jr. L Edge

12.5% 10.3% 11.5% 11.8% C 57 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.8% 13.4% 5.4% 9.7% D 47 —

124

Richie Palacios L Edge

6.0% 1.5% 2.8% 4.3% D 43 —

153

Yandy Diaz R

5.7% 10.9% 5.0% 7.3% D 40 —

190

Jonny Deluca R

4.1% 3.2% 0.0% 3.3% D 36 —

222

Nick Fortes R

2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 2.1% D 32 —

249

Nick Madrigal R

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 25 —

255

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.0% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 23.1% OFF 23.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

16.7% 20.6% 8.2% 15.9% C+ 66 —

Cam Smith R

8.8% 16.5% 16.2% 11.4% C 55 —

Christian Walker R

8.5% 9.3% 11.9% 9.1% C 52 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

6.3% 2.7% 1.7% 4.8% D 48 —

Jeremy Peña R

6.0% 5.9% 11.1% 6.4% D 48 —

Taylor Trammell L Edge

19.0% 7.0% 3.1% 12.3% D 46 —

101

Yainer Diaz R

5.8% 7.0% 5.0% 6.1% D 45 —

135

Jose Altuve R

5.3% 4.7% 0.0% 4.6% D 42 —

139

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.3% 5.0% 5.9% 7.0% D 42 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Jr. Aranda Palacios Alvarez Smith Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Junior Caminero — · 64

Victor Mesa Jr. — · 57

Cam Smith — · 55

Isaac Paredes — · 48

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 9 0.251 92.9 9.3% 40.8%vs RHP 415 25.5% 30.8% 31.3% 41

2 Victor Mesa Jr. 57 C — COOL 32 0.247 89.3 8.7% 27.5%vs RHP 399 18.8% 25.0% 30.5% 32

3 Jonathan Aranda 47 D — · 89 0.149 91.1 8.1% 16.7%vs RHP 392 12.4% 18.2% 12.3% 32

4 Richie Palacios 43 D — WARM 124 0.136 86.0 5.4% 18.8%vs RHP 388 8.2% 44.4% 15.3% 25

5 Yandy Diaz 40 D — WARM 153 0.163 91.1 7.0% 26.4%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 46

6 Jonny Deluca 36 D — COOL 190 0.155 85.5 4.7% 22.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 26

7 Nick Fortes 32 D — COOL 222 0.098 85.2 3.7% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.0% 0.0% 7.7% 11

8 Nick Madrigal 25 D — COOL 249 0.022 87.2 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 4

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 255 0.049 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 48

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 66 C+ — COOL 6 0.280 94.2 10.1% 24.8%vs RHP 403 22.2% 9.1% 18.8% 30

2 Cam Smith 55 C — COOL 39 0.187 89.1 8.6% 22.4%vs RHP 410 14.0% 27.3% 22.8% 28

3 Christian Walker 52 C — COOL 60 0.193 88.9 7.6% 23.8%vs RHP 393 16.7% 8.3% 14.2% 37

4 Isaac Paredes 48 D — WARM 81 0.170 86.1 5.6% 17.0%vs RHP 377 12.7% 23.1% 18.9% 37

5 Jeremy Peña 48 D — · 83 0.180 88.5 6.5% 27.3%vs RHP 387 14.8% 7.7% 13.7% 36

6 Taylor Trammell 46 D — · 98 0.151 88.1 8.8% 18.4%vs RHP 413 10.6% 0.0% 10.7% 21

7 Yainer Diaz 45 D — WARM 101 0.156 88.9 6.4% 31.2%vs RHP 391 10.6% 11.1% 12.4% 30

8 Jose Altuve 42 D — COOL 135 0.153 85.5 5.3% 19.1%vs RHP 377 10.2% 9.1% 10.6% 38

9 Daulton Varsho 42 D — WARM 139 0.133 86.7 6.6% 11.0%vs RHP 388 7.3% 9.1% 8.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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