TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.35×

SEA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 4:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 7 mph slight_out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

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best window is early — 1:05p at +10

Best of game Max Muncy conv 35 · vs Miller ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 25 · vs Lopez → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 84

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — B ●●●●●

2 Brian Serven — C+ ●●●●●

3 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 17

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — C+ ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 10.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Max Muncy ✶ vs Miller — 0.245 · 90.5 · 9.9% 33.3% 36.6% F B O B 70

· ATH Brian Serven vs Miller — 0.239 · 88.6 · 8.8% 25.0% 36.8% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Miller — 0.202 · 89.2 · 8.3% 23.1% 30.6% F B O C+ 61

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Lopez Edge — 0.191 · 90.5 · 7.1% 23.1% 27.9% F B O C 59

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Miller — 0.123 · 91.0 · 7.6% 23.1% 17.1% F B O C 50

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Lopez Edge — 0.187 · 89.8 · 9.8% 16.7% 20.4% F B O C+ 60

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Lopez — 0.224 · 91.1 · 8.8% 15.4% 17.4% F B O C+ 62

· ATH Donovan Walton vs Miller Edge — 0.184 · 87.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 24.4% F B O C 51

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Lopez Edge — 0.155 · 90.2 · 7.6% 7.7% 12.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Alika Williams COOL vs Miller — 0.152 · 84.5 · 2.3% 20.0% 17.2% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Miller Edge — 0.143 · 89.6 · 7.5% 15.4% 14.2% F B O D 49

· SEA Jhonny Pereda vs Lopez Edge — 0.072 · 90.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Miller Edge — 0.138 · 88.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 45

· SEA Weston Wilson vs Lopez Edge — 0.118 · 85.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Miller Edge — 0.104 · 86.6 · 3.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 35

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Lopez — 0.093 · 87.0 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 40

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Lopez — 0.124 · 87.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 34.0% OFF 8.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dominic Canzone L

14.3% 11.9% 8.4% 12.3% C+ 62 —

Cal Raleigh S Edge

15.3% 16.7% 10.3% 14.5% C+ 60 —

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.2% 6.8% 7.6% 7.6% C 59 —

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.5% 7.0% 10.2% 8.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Weston Wilson R Edge

3.4% 10.5% 0.0% 4.3% D 45 —

109

J.P. Crawford L

4.9% 6.2% 9.7% 5.7% D 45 —

117

Jhonny Pereda R Edge

2.6% 5.0% 0.0% 3.1% D 44 —

160

Josh Naylor L

4.1% 7.9% 1.3% 4.5% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.7% ← leak OFF 24.4% BRK 21.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Max Muncy R

13.7% 4.8% 8.0% 10.8% B 70 —

Neutral · 4

Zack Gelof R

10.4% 14.3% 6.2% 9.4% C+ 61 —

Brian Serven R

13.8% 0.0% 11.1% 10.4% C+ 60 —

Donovan Walton L Edge

7.4% 0.0% 2.9% 5.0% C 51 —

Henry Bolte R

7.8% 3.6% 9.5% 7.8% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.9% 3.2% 10.2% 7.3% D 49 —

100

Alika Williams R

1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% D 46 —

102

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.8% 6.5% 2.9% 6.2% D 45 —

199

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.4% 2.7% 2.5% 1.9% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Raleigh Arozarena Muncy Gelof Serven Bolte Butler Williams

Legend

attack side — vs Miller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Max Muncy — · 70

Brian Serven — · 60

Zack Gelof — · 61

Randy Arozarena — · 59

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 7 mph slight_out 72°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

1:05p · peak

+10

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7 mph · slight_out

74°F

2:05p

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6 mph · slight_out

75°F

3:05p

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6 mph · cross

76°F

4:05p

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5 mph · cross

77°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 72°F, wind 7 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 62 C+ — · 12 0.224 91.1 8.8% 25.0%vs LHP 404 15.4% 15.4% 17.4% 42

2 Cal Raleigh 60 C+ — · 19 0.187 89.8 9.8% 25.9%vs LHP 383 15.7% 16.7% 20.4% 33

3 Randy Arozarena 59 C — · 21 0.191 90.5 7.1% 23.3%vs LHP 386 15.3% 23.1% 27.9% 36

4 Julio Rodríguez 53 C — WARM 53 0.155 90.2 7.6% 19.1%vs LHP 404 15.1% 7.7% 12.8% 42

5 Weston Wilson 45 D — WARM 103 0.118 85.5 5.5% 20.0%vs LHP 393 9.1% 0.0% 10.9% 18

6 J.P. Crawford 45 D — COOL 109 0.124 87.9 6.0% 9.1%vs LHP 388 11.1% 0.0% 8.3% 39

7 Jhonny Pereda 44 D — WARM 117 0.072 90.1 4.5% 16.7% 390 5.9% 0.0% 13.1% 5

8 Josh Naylor 40 D — · 160 0.093 87.0 5.3% 10.7%vs LHP 392 5.6% 0.0% 8.5% 46

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 70 B — · 4 0.245 90.5 9.9% 26.9%vs RHP 410 22.3% 33.3% 36.6% 50

2 Zack Gelof 61 C+ — HOT 15 0.202 89.2 8.3% 24.0%vs RHP 397 19.4% 23.1% 30.6% 35

3 Brian Serven 60 C+ — · 17 0.239 88.6 8.8% 42.9%vs RHP 399 42.9% 25.0% 36.8% 14

4 Donovan Walton 51 C — WARM 63 0.184 87.3 6.2% 14.7%vs RHP 394 11.5% 0.0% 24.4% 26

5 Henry Bolte 50 C — WARM 68 0.123 91.0 7.6% 12.0%vs RHP 397 11.8% 23.1% 17.1% 33

6 Lawrence Butler 49 D — · 76 0.143 89.6 7.5% 19.1%vs RHP 408 9.3% 15.4% 14.2% 34

7 Alika Williams 46 D — COOL 100 0.152 84.5 2.3% 18.2%vs RHP 372 4.8% 20.0% 17.2% 30

8 Carlos Cortes 45 D — COOL 102 0.138 88.5 6.9% 17.6%vs RHP 400 4.9% 0.0% 11.3% 25

9 Jeff Mcneil 35 D — WARM 199 0.104 86.6 3.7% 12.3%vs RHP 380 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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