TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ DET

Comerica Park is live · 1.43×

COL @ DET

Comerica Park · 12:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 13 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

12:10p

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +13 FIT

Best of game Adael Amador conv 26 · vs Jobe ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 24 · vs Hughes → edge: Adael Amador

ATTACK Jackson Jobe RHP · DET

leak 95

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.92 · leakiest side of this game

1 Adael Amador — C ●●●●○

2 Mickey Moniak — C ●●○○○

3 Cole Carrigg — D ●●○○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 26

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — D ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — D ●●●○○

3 Dillon Dingler — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Adael Amador: 8.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Adael Amador ✶ COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.286 · 84.5 · 9.4% 20.0% 31.6% F B O C 54

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.244 · 89.5 · 9.3% 14.3% 17.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Hughes — 0.185 · 89.2 · 8.0% 28.6% 19.5% F B O D 48

· DET Riley Greene vs Hughes Edge — 0.196 · 90.3 · 8.8% 18.2% 18.4% F B O D 49

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Hughes — 0.214 · 88.4 · 7.1% 10.0% 13.4% F B O D 47

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Jobe Edge — 0.177 · 87.3 · 7.0% 11.1% 11.4% F B O D 43

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Hughes — 0.156 · 89.8 · 6.6% 9.1% 10.2% F B O D 40

· DET Colt Keith vs Hughes Edge — 0.144 · 88.8 · 6.3% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 37

· DET Max Clark COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.174 · 87.4 · 2.3% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 35

· COL Zac Veen COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.222 · 89.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 45

· COL Brett Sullivan COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.183 · 86.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 42

· COL Jake Mccarthy HOT vs Jobe Edge — 0.187 · 85.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 40

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Jobe Edge — 0.158 · 84.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Hughes Edge — 0.150 · 88.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 34

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.116 · 89.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.099 · 85.7 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· DET John Peck vs Hughes — 0.032 · 88.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 34.3% OFF 11.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mickey Moniak L Edge

8.8% 18.6% 1.7% 9.4% C 55 —

Adael Amador S Edge

13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

110

Zac Veen L Edge

0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 11.5% D 45 —

129

Cole Carrigg S Edge

4.8% 2.8% 6.5% 4.8% D 43 —

140

Brett Sullivan L Edge

6.3% 2.5% 0.0% 4.4% D 42 —

155

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.6% 1.8% 6.8% 5.3% D 40 —

178

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.6% 3.1% 4.8% 4.8% D 37 —

226

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.8% 2.2% 1.5% 2.3% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Jobe's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.2% BRK 27.6% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

16.2% 17.1% 8.8% 15.1% D 49 —

Spencer Torkelson R

12.9% 10.7% 10.3% 12.1% D 48 —

Dillon Dingler R

11.8% 7.5% 6.1% 10.1% D 47 —

163

Hao-Yu Lee R

11.6% 4.7% 3.6% 8.3% D 40 —

187

Colt Keith L Edge

7.1% 15.4% 4.3% 7.9% D 37 —

203

Max Clark L Edge

0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 1.0% D 35 —

204

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.6% 6.5% 2.5% 7.1% D 34 —

220

John Peck R

15.4% 0.0% 25.0% 12.5% D 33 —

251

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 2.1% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Moniak Amador Greene Torkelson

Legend

attack side — vs Jobe fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Adael Amador — · 54

Spencer Torkelson — · 48

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 12:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 13 mph out 79°F open

+13

↑

14 mph · out

79°F

12:10p · peak

+13

↑

14 mph · out

79°F

1:10p

+13

↑

14 mph · out

79°F

2:10p

+13

↑

14 mph · out

79°F

3:10p

+13

↑

14 mph · out

79°F

4:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.43× 79°F, wind 13 mph NW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.92 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak 55 C — COOL 44 0.244 89.5 9.3% 23.2%vs RHP 416 17.0% 14.3% 17.9% 22

2 Adael Amador ✶ 54 C — COOL 49 0.286 84.5 9.4% 60.0%vs RHP 385 20.0% 20.0% 31.6% 31

3 Zac Veen 45 D — COOL 110 0.222 89.5 10.5% 25.0%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 10

4 Cole Carrigg 43 D — · 129 0.177 87.3 7.0% 12.9%vs RHP 402 7.0% 11.1% 11.4% 31

5 Brett Sullivan 42 D — COOL 140 0.183 86.7 6.2% 17.1%vs RHP 388 12.9% 0.0% 12.5% 11

6 Jake Mccarthy 40 D — HOT 155 0.187 85.5 6.9% 15.9%vs RHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 47

7 Tj Rumfield 37 D — WARM 178 0.158 84.2 6.7% 12.6%vs RHP 412 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 34

8 Troy Johnston 32 D — COOL 226 0.116 89.7 4.5% 4.1%vs RHP 411 2.0% 0.0% 7.3% 14

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 49 D — WARM 79 0.196 90.3 8.8% 16.9%vs RHP 401 12.6% 18.2% 18.4% 30

2 Spencer Torkelson 48 D — · 85 0.185 89.2 8.0% 25.7%vs RHP 392 14.6% 28.6% 19.5% 23

3 Dillon Dingler 47 D — WARM 90 0.214 88.4 7.1% 25.9%vs RHP 398 17.9% 10.0% 13.4% 27

4 Hao-Yu Lee 40 D — WARM 163 0.156 89.8 6.6% 24.0%vs RHP 399 14.6% 9.1% 10.2% 19

5 Colt Keith 37 D — WARM 187 0.144 88.8 6.3% 14.1%vs RHP 382 6.8% 10.0% 9.2% 17

6 Max Clark 35 D — COOL 203 0.174 87.4 2.3% 5.9%vs RHP 383 7.1% 9.1% 8.2% 28

7 Kevin Mcgonigle 34 D — · 204 0.150 88.0 6.0% 10.9%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 42

8 John Peck 33 D — · 220 0.032 88.3 7.6% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 24

9 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — COOL 251 0.099 85.7 3.3% 5.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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