TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.59×

MIL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 10 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +10

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 26 · vs Abbott ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 29 · vs May → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 80

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +350 C+ ●●○○○

3 Joey Ortiz +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 26

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +370 C ●●●●○

2 Jj Bleday +400 C ●●●●○

3 Matt Mclain +575 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Sal Stewart ✶ vs May +370 0.218 · 90.1 · 9.6% 33.3% 24.8% F B O C 59

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Abbott Edge +330 0.196 · 92.0 · 10.2% 25.0% 26.8% F B O C+ 60

· — Jj Bleday vs May Edge +400 0.214 · 88.5 · 8.5% 33.3% 15.9% F B O C 52

· — Tyler Stephenson vs May +525 0.172 · 91.2 · 9.3% 20.0% 17.7% F B O C 50

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Abbott +350 0.217 · 92.4 · 10.3% 10.0% 16.3% F B O C+ 60

· — Elly De La Cruz vs May Edge +425 0.201 · 94.0 · 9.9% 8.3% 13.3% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Matt Mclain vs May +575 0.155 · 88.4 · 8.2% 33.3% 12.3% F B O D 45

· — Eugenio Suarez COOL vs May +370 0.211 · 88.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 25.4% F B O D 48

· — Dane Myers COOL vs May +700 0.113 · 89.2 · 5.6% 14.3% 7.5% F B O D 38

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Abbott Edge +850 0.133 · 88.8 · 5.9% 11.1% 8.6% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Abbott — 0.148 · 89.0 · 8.9% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Abbott +575 0.168 · 90.1 · 7.7% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 49

· MIL William Contreras vs Abbott Edge +500 0.131 · 90.1 · 8.0% 8.3% 8.3% F B O D 45

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Abbott — 0.150 · 92.9 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 48

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Abbott — 0.096 · 87.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.8% ← leak BRK 33.1% OFF 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.9% 11.6% 6.8% 12.3% C+ 60 +330

Jake Bauers L

14.2% 12.0% 12.2% 13.3% C+ 60 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L

8.1% 9.6% 1.5% 7.3% D 49 +575

Garrett Mitchell L

14.5% 10.4% 5.4% 11.9% D 48 —

Christian Yelich L

9.4% 8.5% 11.8% 9.5% D 48 —

108

William Contreras R Edge

8.2% 9.6% 0.0% 7.7% D 45 +500

128

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.3% 5.3% 0.0% 4.3% D 42 +850

171

David Hamilton L

3.3% 5.6% 0.0% 3.4% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.8% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.3% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

15.2% 11.0% 8.3% 12.9% C 59 +370

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.4% 11.8% 6.6% 13.7% C 54 +425

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.6% 6.2% 6.3% 10.0% C 52 +400

Tyler Stephenson R

15.9% 7.0% 4.0% 12.1% C 50 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

13.1% 6.1% 4.8% 10.9% D 48 +370

Matt Mclain R

10.9% 9.9% 3.7% 9.8% D 45 +575

165

Dane Myers R

4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.4% D 38 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.3% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Chourio Bauers Stewart Bleday Stephenson Mclain

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +370 · 59

Jackson Chourio +330 · 60

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 10 mph out 78°F open

+10

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

6:40p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · cross

71°F

9:40p

↑

6 mph · cross

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.59× 78°F, wind 10 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio 60 C+ +330 COOL 17 0.196 92.0 10.2% 30.4%vs LHP 399 16.8% 25.0% 26.8% 43

2 Jake Bauers 60 C+ +350 COOL 19 0.217 92.4 10.3% 21.4%vs LHP 401 18.4% 10.0% 16.3% 19

3 Brice Turang 49 D +575 COOL 68 0.168 90.1 7.7% 5.0%vs LHP 407 10.4% 8.3% 9.3% 33

4 Garrett Mitchell 48 D — COOL 73 0.150 92.9 9.7% 16.7%vs LHP 415 7.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20

5 Christian Yelich 48 D — COOL 75 0.148 89.0 8.9% 15.4%vs LHP 400 8.3% 10.0% 9.7% 35

6 William Contreras 45 D +500 · 108 0.131 90.1 8.0% 10.0%vs LHP 414 9.4% 8.3% 8.3% 41

7 Joey Ortiz 42 D +850 · 128 0.133 88.8 5.9% 11.1%vs LHP 390 7.5% 11.1% 8.6% 33

8 David Hamilton 37 D — COOL 171 0.096 87.0 5.2% 20.0%vs LHP 386 4.3% 0.0% 9.1% 31

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 59 C +370 · 24 0.218 90.1 9.6% 23.7%vs RHP 397 18.3% 33.3% 24.8% 44

2 Elly De La Cruz 54 C +425 WARM 43 0.201 94.0 9.9% 19.7%vs RHP 398 14.9% 8.3% 13.3% 36

3 Jj Bleday 52 C +400 WARM 46 0.214 88.5 8.5% 21.8%vs RHP 389 20.0% 33.3% 15.9% 37

4 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +525 · 62 0.172 91.2 9.3% 22.0%vs RHP 392 9.9% 20.0% 17.7% 26

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +370 COOL 69 0.211 88.3 8.7% 29.1%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 25.4% 22

6 Matt Mclain 45 D +575 · 98 0.155 88.4 8.2% 12.9%vs RHP 394 14.3% 33.3% 12.3% 30

7 Dane Myers 38 D +700 COOL 165 0.113 89.2 5.6% 11.1%vs RHP 384 6.6% 14.3% 7.5% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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