TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TEX

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TB @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 7:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph slight_out 96°F Roof retractable

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6:05p

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10:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +9

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 32 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Jonathan Aranda conv 21 · vs deGrom → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 74

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +425 C ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +850 D ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +425 D ●●●○○

FADE Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 72

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jonathan Aranda +425 D ●●●○○

2 Junior Caminero +330 C+ ●●●○○

3 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Rasmussen Edge +425 0.242 · 92.3 · 8.3% 33.3% 31.2% F B O C 58

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs deGrom +330 0.246 · 92.9 · 10.2% 15.4% 20.5% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Rasmussen +850 0.183 · 88.9 · 6.2% 30.8% 20.4% F B O D 47

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs deGrom Edge +425 0.147 · 91.2 · 8.8% 25.0% 16.9% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs deGrom Edge +950 0.123 · 86.2 · 5.1% 22.2% 12.1% F B O D 36

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Rasmussen +425 0.185 · 90.1 · 8.4% 16.7% 16.9% F B O D 49

· TEX Corey Seager vs Rasmussen Edge +350 0.186 · 91.9 · 9.4% 7.7% 13.0% F B O D 48

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Rasmussen +525 0.194 · 89.2 · 6.3% 7.7% 12.9% F B O D 45

· TB Cedric Mullins vs deGrom Edge +525 0.144 · 87.9 · 5.9% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Rasmussen Edge +500 0.156 · 92.3 · 7.9% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 43

· TB Yandy Diaz vs deGrom +625 0.165 · 90.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 40

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs deGrom — 0.162 · 85.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 37

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.039 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 18

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs deGrom — 0.100 · 85.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 30

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +850 0.126 · 87.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 27

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.052 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.3% ← leak BRK 42.8% OFF 12.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

15.4% 11.2% 7.0% 12.8% C+ 60 +330

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.1% 12.5% 5.6% 9.8% D 47 +425

142

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 11.7% 3.6% 7.3% D 40 +625

154

Cedric Mullins L Edge

4.4% 2.8% 7.7% 4.4% D 39 +525

168

Jonny Deluca R

4.2% 3.4% 0.0% 3.5% D 37 —

175

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.3% 1.6% 2.8% 3.3% D 36 +950

205

Nick Fortes R

2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 2.1% D 30 —

211

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 27 —

218

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.3% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 80.7% ← leak OFF 12.7% BRK 6.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.5% 3.1% 11.8% 11.0% C 58 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

11.2% 13.5% 11.6% 11.6% D 49 +425

Corey Seager L Edge

13.3% 21.1% 15.0% 15.1% D 48 +350

Ezequiel Duran R

7.8% 0.0% 6.5% 6.4% D 47 +850

100

Wyatt Langford R

4.3% 10.7% 9.7% 6.5% D 45 +525

122

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.2% 7.0% 15.7% 10.1% D 43 +500

186

Evan Carter L Edge

7.0% 0.0% 3.8% 5.1% D 35 +850

217

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.7% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Palacios Pederson Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +425 · 58

Ezequiel Duran +850 · 47

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 6:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph slight_out 96°F retractable

↑

8 mph · slight_out

96°F

6:05p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

95°F

7:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

92°F

8:05p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

90°F

9:05p

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8 mph · slight_out

87°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 96°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 60 C+ +330 COOL 21 0.246 92.9 10.2% 39.7%vs RHP 414 24.6% 15.4% 20.5% 41

2 Jonathan Aranda 47 D +425 · 78 0.147 91.2 8.8% 16.8%vs RHP 390 12.2% 25.0% 16.9% 33

3 Yandy Diaz 40 D +625 · 142 0.165 90.9 7.7% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 47

4 Cedric Mullins 39 D +525 WARM 154 0.144 87.9 5.9% 16.1%vs RHP 387 11.7% 10.0% 9.7% 28

5 Jonny Deluca 37 D — COOL 168 0.162 85.7 5.3% 24.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 34

6 Richie Palacios 36 D +950 COOL 175 0.123 86.2 5.1% 14.9%vs RHP 393 6.2% 22.2% 12.1% 29

7 Nick Fortes 30 D — COOL 205 0.100 85.0 4.1% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 8.6% 10

8 Taylor Walls 27 D — COOL 211 0.075 85.6 3.9% 2.2%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 7.0% 29

9 Chandler Simpson 17 D — COOL 218 0.052 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 48

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 58 C +425 · 28 0.242 92.3 8.3% 29.1%vs RHP 395 22.3% 33.3% 31.2% 19

2 Jake Burger 49 D +425 HOT 65 0.185 90.1 8.4% 20.6%vs RHP 401 15.7% 16.7% 16.9% 29

3 Corey Seager 48 D +350 WARM 71 0.186 91.9 9.4% 20.8%vs RHP 394 15.9% 7.7% 13.0% 39

4 Ezequiel Duran 47 D +850 WARM 77 0.183 88.9 6.2% 21.7%vs RHP 396 14.1% 30.8% 20.4% 37

5 Wyatt Langford 45 D +525 COOL 100 0.194 89.2 6.3% 22.0%vs RHP 396 14.7% 7.7% 12.9% 39

6 Brandon Nimmo 43 D +500 · 122 0.156 92.3 7.9% 12.0%vs RHP 404 9.9% 7.7% 9.7% 38

7 Evan Carter 35 D +850 COOL 186 0.126 87.9 5.6% 11.3%vs RHP 374 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% 23

8 Nicky Lopez 18 D — COOL 217 0.039 84.2 — 4.8%vs RHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 9.0% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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