TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.94×

ATH @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph cross 61°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -3

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 34 · vs Springs ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 26 · vs Kirby → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 93

2.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +390 C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone +425 C+ ●●●○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 68

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +500 C ●●●●○

2 Jonah Heim +750 D ●●○○○

3 Jeff Mcneil +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 27.0% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Springs Edge +320 0.194 · 89.7 · 11.7% 41.7% 27.0% F B O C+ 64

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Springs Edge +390 0.192 · 90.7 · 8.7% 30.8% 25.9% F B O C 59

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Kirby +500 0.216 · 88.9 · 7.6% 25.0% 26.4% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Springs +425 0.226 · 91.1 · 10.8% 16.7% 22.3% F B O C+ 63

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Springs Edge +390 0.155 · 90.0 · 9.3% 7.7% 11.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Kirby Edge +750 0.179 · 87.9 · 6.9% 16.7% 12.0% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Kirby Edge +850 0.108 · 86.5 · 3.7% 14.3% 8.3% F B O D 34

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Springs +750 0.136 · 88.2 · 6.7% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 45

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Kirby Edge +575 0.136 · 89.6 · 7.3% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 41

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Kirby +750 0.111 · 90.8 · 7.1% 7.7% 8.0% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Springs +750 0.096 · 87.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Springs +950 0.125 · 87.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 38.9% OFF 8.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Zack Gelof R

10.6% 4.0% 14.3% 8.8% C 55 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

102

Jonah Heim S Edge

6.5% 3.6% 10.5% 6.7% D 45 +750

135

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.7% 10.3% 3.3% 7.3% D 41 +575

158

Henry Bolte R

7.6% 8.2% 3.6% 7.3% D 39 +750

192

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.2% BRK 29.3% OFF 24.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Cal Raleigh S Edge

15.6% 16.9% 12.0% 15.2% C+ 64 +320

Dominic Canzone L

14.8% 9.8% 8.9% 12.3% C+ 63 +425

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.6% 7.3% 7.8% 8.0% C 59 +390

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.7% 7.2% 10.6% 9.1% C 52 +390

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

107

Cole Young L

4.2% 9.2% 1.3% 4.7% D 45 +750

130

J.P. Crawford L

4.9% 6.5% 10.0% 5.9% D 41 +950

155

Josh Naylor L

4.3% 7.5% 1.4% 4.5% D 39 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Springs's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Heim Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cal Raleigh +320 · 64

Randy Arozarena +390 · 59

Zack Gelof +500 · 55

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph cross 61°F retractable

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

61°F

6:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

59°F

7:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

59°F

8:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · in

59°F

9:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

60°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 61°F, wind 8 mph N (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 55 C +500 WARM 36 0.216 88.9 7.6% 25.5%vs RHP 398 21.8% 25.0% 26.4% 36

2 Jonah Heim 45 D +750 · 102 0.179 87.9 6.9% 7.7%vs RHP 409 9.6% 16.7% 12.0% 35

3 Lawrence Butler 41 D +575 WARM 135 0.136 89.6 7.3% 18.2%vs RHP 410 8.2% 7.7% 9.2% 28

4 Henry Bolte 39 D +750 · 158 0.111 90.8 7.1% 4.3%vs RHP 401 9.8% 7.7% 8.0% 36

5 Jeff Mcneil 34 D +850 · 192 0.108 86.5 3.7% 12.9%vs RHP 382 6.8% 14.3% 8.3% 46

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 64 C+ +320 HOT 4 0.194 89.7 11.7% 26.9%vs LHP 384 16.7% 41.7% 27.0% 28

2 Dominic Canzone 63 C+ +425 · 11 0.226 91.1 10.8% 30.8%vs LHP 404 15.5% 16.7% 22.3% 36

3 Randy Arozarena 59 C +390 WARM 23 0.192 90.7 8.7% 24.1%vs LHP 386 15.4% 30.8% 25.9% 34

4 Julio Rodríguez 52 C +390 · 53 0.155 90.0 9.3% 19.5%vs LHP 404 15.2% 7.7% 11.8% 36

5 Cole Young 45 D +750 COOL 107 0.136 88.2 6.7% 9.1%vs LHP 383 11.1% 8.3% 9.2% 36

6 J.P. Crawford 41 D +950 COOL 130 0.125 87.9 7.5% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 21

7 Josh Naylor 39 D +750 COOL 155 0.096 87.2 6.6% 10.7%vs LHP 392 5.9% 0.0% 9.0% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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