TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.36×

WSH @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 9:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:10p

+8 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+5 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +9

Best of game Max Muncy conv 20 · vs Cavalli ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 25 · vs Glasnow → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 78

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +330 C ●●●○○

2 Dalton Rushing — C ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 29

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +575 D ●●●●○

2 Keibert Ruiz +750 D ●●○○○

3 James Wood +350 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 20.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Cavalli Edge +330 0.237 · 90.5 · 10.0% 21.4% 17.8% F B O C 59

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Glasnow Edge +350 0.267 · 95.2 · 12.6% 0.0% 23.0% F B O C+ 64

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.217 · 89.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 22.9% F B O C 50

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.246 · 93.2 · 10.8% 0.0% 18.4% F B O C 58

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Glasnow Edge +500 0.232 · 89.5 · 8.6% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Glasnow Edge +575 0.183 · 88.7 · 8.3% 30.8% 18.3% F B O D 49

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Glasnow Edge +750 0.166 · 88.3 · 6.0% 14.3% 9.3% F B O D 41

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Cavalli +500 0.173 · 90.0 · 7.3% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 45

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Cavalli Edge +525 0.161 · 89.7 · 7.9% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 44

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Cavalli Edge +575 0.132 · 88.6 · 6.3% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 38

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Cavalli Edge +625 0.130 · 88.0 · 6.7% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 39

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Glasnow — 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 38

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Glasnow +575 0.141 · 90.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 42

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Cavalli +500 0.148 · 90.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Glasnow Edge — 0.035 · 85.1 · 2.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.5% ← leak BRK 45.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

James Wood L Edge

20.0% 26.8% 20.6% C+ 64 +350

Cj Abrams L Edge

9.9% 9.2% 9.9% C 52 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L Edge

9.0% 13.0% 8.9% D 49 +575

125

Dylan Crews R

6.5% 16.0% 8.7% D 42 +575

134

Keibert Ruiz L Edge

5.9% 4.1% 4.6% D 41 +750

162

Jacob Young R

7.6% 4.4% 6.1% D 38 —

216

Nasim Nunez S Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.9% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.5% usage) carries Glasnow's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.9% ← leak BRK 40.3% OFF 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Max Muncy L Edge

16.0% 13.4% 8.1% 13.5% C 59 +330

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

18.9% 11.0% 14.3% 15.7% C 58 —

Dalton Rushing L Edge

12.5% 19.5% 2.9% 12.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

104

Mookie Betts R

7.7% 5.3% 7.3% 7.1% D 45 +500

114

Freddie Freeman L Edge

8.8% 7.8% 7.5% 8.3% D 44 +525

143

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.1% 12.7% 8.1% 10.4% D 40 +500

160

Tommy Edman S Edge

4.8% 7.1% 7.1% 5.7% D 39 +625

164

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.0% 2.8% 1.2% 5.6% D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.9% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Lile Muncy

Legend

attack side — vs Cavalli fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Daylen Lile +575 · 49

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph out 81°F open

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

6:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

79°F

7:10p

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · out

74°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 81°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 64 C+ +350 WARM 5 0.267 95.2 12.6% 36.2%vs RHP 413 25.5% 0.0% 23.0% 6

2 Cj Abrams 52 C +500 COOL 50 0.232 89.5 8.6% 28.1%vs RHP 395 30.0% 0.0% 16.2% 25

3 Daylen Lile 49 D +575 HOT 64 0.183 88.7 8.3% 14.4%vs RHP 400 12.0% 30.8% 18.3% 36

4 Dylan Crews 42 D +575 COOL 125 0.141 90.3 8.4% 11.6%vs RHP 407 13.3% 0.0% 10.6% 33

5 Keibert Ruiz 41 D +750 COOL 134 0.166 88.3 6.0% 9.8%vs RHP 377 10.3% 14.3% 9.3% 20

6 Jacob Young 38 D — COOL 162 0.145 87.7 6.9% 12.1%vs RHP 399 6.9% 0.0% 11.0% 26

7 Nasim Nunez 20 D — WARM 216 0.035 85.1 2.6% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 29

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 59 C +330 COOL 26 0.237 90.5 10.0% 25.7%vs RHP 411 21.3% 21.4% 17.8% 48

2 Shohei Ohtani 58 C — COOL 30 0.246 93.2 10.8% 25.7%vs RHP 407 18.4% 0.0% 18.4% 23

3 Dalton Rushing 50 C — COOL 60 0.217 89.6 9.5% 37.9%vs RHP 400 9.1% 0.0% 22.9% 1

4 Mookie Betts 45 D +500 COOL 104 0.173 90.0 7.3% 16.2%vs RHP 389 11.2% 8.3% 11.6% 42

5 Freddie Freeman 44 D +525 COOL 114 0.161 89.7 7.9% 13.8%vs RHP 399 10.2% 8.3% 10.5% 31

6 Teoscar Hernandez 40 D +500 WARM 143 0.148 90.0 8.5% 14.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 28

7 Tommy Edman 39 D +625 · 160 0.130 88.0 6.7% 5.0%vs RHP 398 7.5% 8.3% 7.4% 38

8 Kyle Tucker 38 D +575 COOL 164 0.132 88.6 6.3% 10.8%vs RHP 392 7.6% 9.1% 8.2% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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