TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.67×

SF @ NYM

Citi Field · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 11 mph in 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-11 ↑

4:10p

-11 ↑

5:10p

-11 ↑

6:10p

-11 ↑

7:10p

-9 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks -9

Best of game Juan Soto conv 34 · vs Molina ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 35 · vs Thornton → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Anthony Molina RHP · SF

leak 24

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 Francisco Lindor +370 C ●●●●○

3 Bo Bichette +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 6

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +400 D ●○○○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs Thornton +370 0.252 · 92.9 · 9.7% 50.0% 19.8% F B O C+ 62

· NYM Juan Soto vs Molina Edge +280 0.258 · 92.7 · 10.2% 40.0% 27.1% F B O C+ 60

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Molina Edge +370 0.200 · 91.1 · 8.1% 33.3% 19.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Molina +625 0.134 · 89.6 · 6.7% 18.2% 9.0% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Molina +475 0.178 · 90.1 · 10.6% 0.0% 21.1% F B O D 44

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Thornton +400 0.186 · 92.5 · 9.8% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 49

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Molina Edge +575 0.141 · 88.7 · 7.2% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 39

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Thornton — 0.141 · 86.8 · 6.6% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 36

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Molina Edge +525 0.168 · 89.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Molina +575 0.128 · 86.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· NYM Brett Baty COOL vs Molina Edge +625 0.117 · 90.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 37

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Molina Edge +850 0.110 · 89.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 32

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Thornton +950 0.129 · 87.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.9% ← leak BRK 29.8% OFF 4.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

13.4% 10.9% 7.0% 11.5% C+ 62 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L

11.2% 11.8% 13.5% 11.7% D 49 +400

180

Drew Gilbert L

6.0% 7.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 36 —

204

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.9% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 0 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.7% OFF 24.5% BRK 23.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

18.4% 4.3% 13.2% 14.4% C+ 60 +280

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.6% 5.6% 6.4% 9.4% C 51 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

110

Francisco Alvarez R

15.9% 15.4% 16.7% 16.1% D 44 +475

146

Jared Young L Edge

6.1% 11.4% 6.1% 6.9% D 40 +525

156

Bo Bichette R

5.2% 0.0% 9.7% 6.1% D 39 +625

159

Carson Benge L Edge

6.3% 7.4% 8.2% 7.0% D 39 +575

173

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 5.6% 14.8% 9.2% D 37 +625

178

Marcus Semien R

8.6% 5.9% 1.8% 6.1% D 36 +575

198

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.1% 0.0% 11.3% 6.9% D 32 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Molina's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Soto Lindor Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs Molina fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +370 · 62

Juan Soto +280 · 60

Francisco Lindor +370 · 51

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 11 mph in 75°F open

-11

↑

11 mph · in

76°F

4:10p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

75°F

5:10p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

74°F

6:10p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

73°F

7:10p

-9

↑

9 mph · in

72°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.67× 75°F, wind 11 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 62 C+ +370 HOT 13 0.252 92.9 9.7% 11.4%vs LHP 400 21.9% 50.0% 19.8% 40

2 Bryce Eldridge 49 D +400 · 67 0.186 92.5 9.8% 23.8%vs LHP 399 18.1% 9.1% 10.4% 29

3 Drew Gilbert 36 D — WARM 180 0.141 86.8 6.6% 10.3% 394 6.7% 8.3% 6.6% 30

4 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D +950 WARM 204 0.129 87.4 4.5% 8.0%vs LHP 382 5.5% 0.0% 5.9% 40

vs Anthony Molina · RHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 60 C+ +280 · 16 0.258 92.7 10.2% 31.7%vs RHP 400 20.7% 40.0% 27.1% 18

2 Francisco Lindor 51 C +370 · 56 0.200 91.1 8.1% 19.3%vs RHP 394 15.2% 33.3% 19.4% 39

3 Francisco Alvarez 44 D +475 WARM 110 0.178 90.1 10.6% 28.6%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 15

4 Jared Young 40 D +525 COOL 146 0.168 89.7 7.1% 18.2%vs RHP 400 6.5% 0.0% 9.5% 31

5 Bo Bichette 39 D +625 WARM 156 0.134 89.6 6.7% 11.0%vs RHP 385 10.3% 18.2% 9.0% 34

6 Carson Benge 39 D +575 COOL 159 0.141 88.7 7.2% 14.1%vs RHP 396 10.4% 8.3% 7.5% 37

7 Brett Baty 37 D +625 COOL 173 0.117 90.0 8.3% 12.7%vs RHP 397 6.6% 0.0% 6.9% 14

8 Marcus Semien 36 D +575 COOL 178 0.128 86.4 6.6% 15.1%vs RHP 391 10.4% 0.0% 7.9% 35

9 A.J. Ewing 32 D +850 COOL 198 0.110 89.1 7.0% 10.6%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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