TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ SD

Playable air · 1.06×

NYY @ SD

Petco Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 9 mph cross 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

4:15p

-7 ↑

5:15p

-9 ↑

6:15p

-10 ↑

7:15p

-11 ↑

8:15p

best window is early — 4:15p at -7

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 22 · vs Rodón ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 24 · vs Ray → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 6

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●●○○

2 Ty France +525 D ●●○○○

3 Fernando Tatis — D ●○○○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 3

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt +425 C ●●●●○

2 Jazz Chisholm — D ●●○○○

3 Ben Rice +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Paul Goldschmidt HOT vs Ray Edge +425 0.208 · 86.8 · 9.7% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C 51

· — Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Ray +400 0.268 · 91.9 · 11.2% 16.7% 14.1% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Rodón +525 0.175 · 90.9 · 8.9% 25.0% 18.5% F B O D 46

· — Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Ray — 0.173 · 90.8 · 8.6% 20.0% 10.8% F B O D 43

· SD Ty France COOL vs Rodón Edge +525 0.223 · 91.9 · 8.1% 16.7% 14.0% F B O D 47

· SD Fernando Tatis COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.164 · 92.8 · 9.3% 0.0% 18.5% F B O D 39

· — Trent Grisham vs Ray — 0.184 · 90.6 · 9.1% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 45

· — Cody Bellinger vs Ray +525 0.151 · 88.9 · 7.2% 8.3% 6.4% F B O D 38

· — Austin Wells vs Ray — 0.126 · 89.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 36

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Rodón — 0.075 · 87.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 24

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Rodón Edge +425 0.182 · 90.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· — Jose Caballero COOL vs Ray Edge +850 0.135 · 83.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 31

· — Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Ray — 0.148 · 91.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 40

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Rodón Edge +950 0.109 · 87.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 28

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Rodón Edge +850 0.103 · 89.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.6% BRK 25.1% OFF 14.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Ty France R Edge

9.0% 9.4% 9.1% 9.1% D 47 +525

Jackson Merrill L

12.7% 11.4% 8.8% 11.6% D 46 +525

138

Manny Machado R Edge

11.0% 5.5% 8.5% 9.2% D 41 +425

150

Fernando Tatis R Edge

11.2% 14.2% 17.3% 12.8% D 39 —

206

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.1% 4.3% 3.1% 6.0% D 29 +850

209

Freddy Fermin R Edge

3.6% 4.7% 8.3% 4.2% D 28 +950

213

Jake Cronenworth L

3.3% 2.4% 3.0% 3.1% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Rodón's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.1% ← leak BRK 35.4% OFF 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L

16.6% 12.7% 11.3% 14.6% C 59 +400

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.0% 5.8% 8.8% 10.9% C 51 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

109

Trent Grisham L

11.1% 6.7% 6.5% 9.6% D 45 —

118

Jazz Chisholm L

6.9% 12.4% 6.4% 8.6% D 43 —

144

Ryan Mcmahon L

12.0% 3.8% 10.3% 9.5% D 40 —

167

Cody Bellinger L

3.8% 10.3% 8.5% 6.0% D 38 +525

176

Austin Wells L

9.5% 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% D 36 —

200

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.1% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Rice Goldschmidt Chisholm

Legend

attack side — vs Rodón fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Paul Goldschmidt +425 · 51

Jackson Merrill +525 · 46

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 4:15p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 9 mph cross 85°F open

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

4:15p · peak

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

5:15p

-9

↑

9 mph · in

82°F

6:15p

-10

↑

9 mph · in

79°F

7:15p

-11

↑

9 mph · in

77°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 85°F, wind 9 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 47 D +525 COOL 81 0.223 91.9 8.1% 25.0%vs LHP 390 16.5% 16.7% 14.0% 34

2 Jackson Merrill 46 D +525 · 91 0.175 90.9 8.9% 13.3%vs LHP 412 15.8% 25.0% 18.5% 39

3 Manny Machado 41 D +425 COOL 138 0.182 90.5 8.0% 13.3%vs LHP 397 16.4% 0.0% 8.3% 32

4 Fernando Tatis 39 D — COOL 150 0.164 92.8 9.3% 53.3%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 43

5 Xander Bogaerts 29 D +850 WARM 206 0.103 89.2 6.4% 4.2%vs LHP 400 7.6% 0.0% 5.1% 31

6 Freddy Fermin 28 D +950 HOT 209 0.109 87.6 5.3% 11.1%vs LHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 5.8% 14

7 Jake Cronenworth 24 D — COOL 213 0.075 87.2 4.6% 12.5%vs LHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 8.8% 30

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 59 C +400 COOL 27 0.268 91.9 11.2% 30.3%vs LHP 394 24.1% 16.7% 14.1% 37

2 Paul Goldschmidt 51 C +425 HOT 55 0.208 86.8 9.7% 34.4%vs LHP 390 16.7% 25.0% 23.9% 16

3 Trent Grisham 45 D — · 109 0.184 90.6 9.1% 10.3%vs LHP 388 13.2% 8.3% 7.6% 30

4 Jazz Chisholm 43 D — COOL 118 0.173 90.8 8.6% 18.5%vs LHP 384 14.3% 20.0% 10.8% 30

5 Ryan Mcmahon 40 D — COOL 144 0.148 91.1 9.1% 0.0%vs LHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 6.3% 5

6 Cody Bellinger 38 D +525 · 167 0.151 88.9 7.2% 12.1%vs LHP 378 9.1% 8.3% 6.4% 41

7 Austin Wells 36 D — WARM 176 0.126 89.3 7.7% 16.7%vs LHP 379 8.0% 0.0% 10.1% 21

8 Jose Caballero 31 D +850 COOL 200 0.135 83.8 6.0% 22.2%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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