TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ BAL

Neutral air · 1.01×

BOS @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph in 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

7:05p

-4 ↑

8:05p

-5 ↑

9:05p

-5 ↑

10:05p

-6 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 8:05p at -4

Best of game Jarren Duran conv 16 · vs Bassitt ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 26 · vs Gray → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 84

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jarren Duran +500 D ●●○○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +350 C ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela — D ●○○○○

FADE Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 77

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Colton Cowser +700 D ●●●○○

3 Coby Mayo +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Gray +330 0.231 · 94.2 · 9.5% 23.1% 29.8% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Gray +425 0.221 · 91.7 · 9.2% 16.7% 18.8% F B O C 54

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Bassitt Edge +350 0.208 · 89.8 · 8.3% 14.3% 13.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Gray Edge +700 0.151 · 88.0 · 8.4% 22.2% 17.2% F B O D 46

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Bassitt Edge +500 0.156 · 90.0 · 7.3% 18.2% 14.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Gray Edge +525 0.178 · 89.6 · 6.9% 7.7% 11.9% F B O D 45

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Gray Edge +750 0.121 · 87.0 · 6.7% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 37

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Gray Edge +850 0.131 · 88.3 · 5.3% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 35

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Gray Edge +525 0.195 · 90.4 · 9.2% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 48

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Bassitt — 0.161 · 86.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Bassitt +950 0.132 · 83.5 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Bassitt — 0.150 · 87.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.8% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.2% 15.2% 11.2% 12.1% C 53 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

11.4% 8.2% 6.6% 9.5% D 47 +500

139

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.1% 6.3% 10.9% 5.2% D 41 —

141

Andruw Monasterio R

6.9% 6.1% 10.5% 6.9% D 41 —

188

Caleb Durbin R

2.9% 1.9% 2.5% 2.6% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.8% usage) carries Bassitt's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.9% ← leak BRK 36.6% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.7% 10.2% 16.7% 14.2% C+ 60 +330

Coby Mayo R

10.5% 14.7% 15.2% 12.6% C 54 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Samuel Basallo L Edge

14.4% 10.3% 11.5% 12.6% D 48 +525

Colton Cowser L Edge

12.1% 14.6% 3.8% 10.6% D 46 +700

103

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

6.9% 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% D 45 +525

174

Jackson Holliday L Edge

7.9% 5.9% 6.7% 7.1% D 37 +750

187

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.2% 8.2% 0.0% 4.2% D 35 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.9% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abreu Duran Alonso Mayo Cowser

Legend

attack side — vs Bassitt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +330 · 60

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph in 72°F open

-5

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

7:05p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

8:05p · peak

-5

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

9:05p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

10:05p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

73°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 72°F, wind 6 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 53 C +350 · 44 0.208 89.8 8.3% 14.9%vs RHP 406 15.9% 14.3% 13.7% 37

2 Jarren Duran 47 D +500 WARM 80 0.156 90.0 7.3% 27.4%vs RHP 400 13.7% 18.2% 14.1% 34

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 41 D — COOL 139 0.161 86.3 5.4% 13.9%vs RHP 382 11.9% 0.0% 8.3% 39

4 Andruw Monasterio 41 D — COOL 141 0.150 87.9 6.2% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 6.3% 24

5 Caleb Durbin 35 D +950 COOL 188 0.132 83.5 3.8% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.3% 0.0% 7.2% 35

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 60 C+ +330 · 15 0.231 94.2 9.5% 31.2%vs RHP 402 21.3% 23.1% 29.8% 35

2 Coby Mayo 54 C +425 COOL 42 0.221 91.7 9.2% 9.8%vs RHP 411 16.7% 16.7% 18.8% 28

3 Samuel Basallo 48 D +525 COOL 70 0.195 90.4 9.2% 27.8%vs RHP 399 14.3% 0.0% 14.2% 22

4 Colton Cowser 46 D +700 WARM 93 0.151 88.0 8.4% 20.7%vs RHP 412 16.0% 22.2% 17.2% 24

5 Gunnar Henderson 45 D +525 COOL 103 0.178 89.6 6.9% 17.3%vs RHP 393 14.4% 7.7% 11.9% 39

6 Jackson Holliday 37 D +750 · 174 0.121 87.0 6.7% 15.4%vs RHP 389 4.8% 9.1% 8.3% 41

7 Leody Taveras 35 D +850 · 187 0.131 88.3 5.3% 12.7%vs RHP 403 4.9% 8.3% 8.0% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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