TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.91×

CHC @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 9 mph in 83°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-13 ↑

4:10p

-13 ↑

5:10p

-12 ↑

6:10p

-11 ↑

7:10p

-10 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks -10

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Assad ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Gusto → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Javier Assad RHP · CHC

leak 95

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●●○

2 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●●●○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 30

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman +750 D ●●●●○

3 Carson Kelly — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Gusto Edge +290 0.290 · 90.2 · 10.1% 30.8% 22.5% F B O C+ 60

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Assad Edge — 0.224 · 92.4 · 9.5% 25.0% 24.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Gusto +750 0.184 · 88.1 · 6.7% 30.8% 17.9% F B O D 42

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Gusto — 0.128 · 87.2 · 6.6% 30.0% 11.3% F B O D 35

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Gusto Edge +525 0.196 · 89.2 · 9.4% 22.2% 15.6% F B O D 47

· CHC Michael Busch vs Gusto Edge +500 0.155 · 88.3 · 8.4% 23.1% 12.0% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee HOT vs Assad Edge +850 0.119 · 87.3 · 5.1% 22.2% 11.2% F B O D 33

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Gusto +500 0.211 · 88.4 · 9.0% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 46

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Assad +400 0.237 · 91.4 · 10.0% 0.0% 21.6% F B O D 47

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Gusto — 0.096 · 85.9 · 3.3% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 24

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Assad — 0.142 · 86.8 · 3.8% 7.7% 6.1% F B O D 31

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Assad +950 0.137 · 89.1 · 6.7% 7.7% 6.0% F B O D 35

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Assad Edge +700 0.192 · 91.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.3% ← leak BRK 31.4% OFF 14.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.6% 16.0% 12.8% 13.1% C+ 60 +290

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ian Happ S Edge

14.5% 14.1% 2.4% 11.3% D 47 +525

Seiya Suzuki R

10.9% 8.9% 10.3% 10.1% D 46 +500

124

Alex Bregman R

4.3% 8.5% 7.5% 5.7% D 42 +750

133

Michael Busch L Edge

11.9% 5.6% 2.0% 9.1% D 41 +500

183

Carson Kelly R

6.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.6% D 35 —

214

Nico Hoerner R

1.5% 0.8% 1.9% 1.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.3% usage) carries Gusto's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 73.2% ← leak BRK 19.3% OFF 7.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.6% 21.0% 7.1% 12.7% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

13.9% 13.9% 13.6% 13.9% D 47 +400

101

Owen Caissie L Edge

15.3% 8.7% 17.1% 13.9% D 45 +700

189

Otto Lopez R

8.6% 3.6% 4.2% 6.2% D 35 +950

197

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.8% 1.7% 7.0% 3.8% D 33 +850

203

Javier Sanoja R

2.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.2% usage) carries Assad's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Busch Kelly Stowers Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Assad fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong +290 · 60

Kyle Stowers — · 52

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.82× Wind 9 mph in 83°F retractable

-13

↑

9 mph · in

84°F

4:10p

-13

↑

9 mph · in

82°F

5:10p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

80°F

6:10p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

79°F

7:10p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

77°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 83°F, wind 9 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 60 C+ +290 WARM 20 0.290 90.2 10.1% 26.9%vs RHP 397 22.5% 30.8% 22.5% 43

2 Ian Happ 47 D +525 COOL 79 0.196 89.2 9.4% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.6% 22.2% 15.6% 27

3 Seiya Suzuki 46 D +500 · 95 0.211 88.4 9.0% 20.0%vs RHP 406 16.8% 15.4% 12.4% 44

4 Alex Bregman 42 D +750 WARM 124 0.184 88.1 6.7% 18.3%vs RHP 390 12.9% 30.8% 17.9% 48

5 Michael Busch 41 D +500 WARM 133 0.155 88.3 8.4% 12.9%vs RHP 401 13.4% 23.1% 12.0% 31

6 Carson Kelly 35 D — · 183 0.128 87.2 6.6% 9.5%vs RHP 403 8.8% 30.0% 11.3% 30

7 Nico Hoerner 24 D — WARM 214 0.096 85.9 3.3% 6.9%vs RHP 383 5.8% 7.7% 6.4% 45

vs Javier Assad · RHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 52 C — HOT 48 0.224 92.4 9.5% 23.9%vs RHP 398 14.4% 25.0% 24.3% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 47 D +400 WARM 76 0.237 91.4 10.0% 25.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 36

3 Owen Caissie 45 D +700 COOL 101 0.192 91.0 10.0% 26.0%vs RHP 398 13.6% 0.0% 12.6% 11

4 Otto Lopez 35 D +950 · 189 0.137 89.1 6.7% 9.2%vs RHP 402 6.6% 7.7% 6.0% 45

5 Jakob Marsee 33 D +850 HOT 197 0.119 87.3 5.1% 11.4%vs RHP 382 8.1% 22.2% 11.2% 26

6 Javier Sanoja 31 D — COOL 203 0.142 86.8 3.8% 8.5%vs RHP 380 7.2% 7.7% 6.1% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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