TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PHI

Neutral air · 0.99×

ATL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:05p

-5 ↑

7:05p

-4 ↑

8:05p

-4 ↑

9:05p

-3 ↑

10:05p

conditions build late — the 10:05p window peaks -3

Best of game Matt Olson conv 16 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 32 · vs Pérez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 95

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +305 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 93

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +425 C ●●●○○

3 Alec Bohm +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 16.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Pérez +255 0.275 · 92.4 · 9.5% 25.0% 38.7% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Pérez +425 0.232 · 90.4 · 7.8% 16.7% 21.1% F B O C 59

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Wheeler Edge +305 0.263 · 92.6 · 9.8% 8.3% 22.7% F B O C+ 64

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.205 · 90.5 · 8.3% 0.0% 30.7% F B O C 51

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Wheeler Edge +400 0.174 · 91.9 · 9.1% 8.3% 15.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Wheeler Edge +575 0.161 · 87.0 · 5.1% 8.3% 12.2% F B O D 44

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Pérez Edge +575 0.143 · 90.5 · 5.5% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 44

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Pérez +750 0.148 · 89.2 · 5.5% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 43

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Wheeler — 0.173 · 90.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 46

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.124 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 41

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Pérez — 0.153 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 46

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Wheeler Edge +625 0.148 · 90.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 43

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Pérez Edge +625 0.133 · 89.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 39

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Wheeler +525 0.136 · 91.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Wheeler +950 0.122 · 86.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 35

· PHI Trea Turner vs Pérez Edge +525 0.138 · 88.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 43

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Pérez — 0.084 · 87.1 · 2.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.6% ← leak BRK 23.1% OFF 15.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Matt Olson L Edge

16.6% 12.1% 12.5% 14.8% C+ 64 +305

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.1% 18.5% 5.7% 12.8% C 52 +400

Michael Harris L Edge

7.1% 13.7% 13.2% 10.4% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ronald Acuna R

12.6% 11.1% 12.1% 12.2% D 46 —

106

Austin Riley R

11.9% 13.5% 5.1% 11.6% D 45 +525

112

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.4% 1.6% 2.5% 4.1% D 44 +575

117

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.0% 6.8% 5.3% 6.7% D 43 +625

132

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.7% 7.1% 2.5% 5.5% D 41 —

182

Mauricio Dubon R

2.9% 5.9% 4.2% 3.9% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.6% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.5% ← leak OFF 30.9% BRK 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L

16.1% 27.3% 14.7% 16.8% C+ 69 +255

Bryce Harper L

12.0% 6.8% 12.7% 11.2% C 59 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L

6.6% 3.4% 14.6% 8.2% D 46 —

116

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.7% 10.5% 6.3% 5.7% D 44 +575

120

Bryson Stott L

7.5% 4.4% 3.4% 5.7% D 43 +750

123

Trea Turner R Edge

8.1% 2.3% 4.7% 6.3% D 43 +525

148

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

4.4% 4.0% 7.0% 5.1% D 39 +625

201

Justin Crawford L

1.8% 0.0% 1.2% 1.3% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.5% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Harris Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +255 · 69

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph in 77°F open

-5

↑

9 mph · in

77°F

6:05p

-5

↑

9 mph · in

75°F

7:05p

-4

↑

8 mph · in

73°F

8:05p

-4

↑

7 mph · in

72°F

9:05p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

71°F

10:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 77°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 64 C+ +305 COOL 6 0.263 92.6 9.8% 29.9%vs RHP 408 23.2% 8.3% 22.7% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 52 C +400 · 51 0.174 91.9 9.1% 23.1%vs RHP 402 15.7% 8.3% 15.0% 35

3 Michael Harris 51 C — COOL 54 0.205 90.5 8.3% 25.8%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 30.7% 34

4 Ronald Acuna 46 D — WARM 88 0.173 90.3 8.9% 23.3%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 32

5 Austin Riley 45 D +525 COOL 106 0.136 91.4 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 407 8.6% 0.0% 10.0% 27

6 Ozzie Albies 44 D +575 · 112 0.161 87.0 5.1% 13.1%vs RHP 387 13.5% 8.3% 12.2% 38

7 Mike Yastrzemski 43 D +625 COOL 117 0.148 90.7 6.5% 14.5%vs RHP 389 7.8% 0.0% 11.5% 18

8 Dominic Smith 41 D — COOL 132 0.124 87.7 5.9% 14.3%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 12.7% 1

9 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +950 COOL 182 0.122 86.5 4.9% 10.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 40

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +255 COOL 1 0.275 92.4 9.5% 34.3%vs LHP 403 22.1% 25.0% 38.7% 35

2 Bryce Harper 59 C +425 WARM 25 0.232 90.4 7.8% 11.4%vs LHP 402 18.4% 16.7% 21.1% 32

3 Brandon Marsh 46 D — COOL 96 0.153 89.2 6.7% 17.6%vs LHP 391 11.2% 0.0% 12.0% 22

4 Alec Bohm 44 D +575 COOL 116 0.143 90.5 5.5% 17.5%vs LHP 397 10.9% 10.0% 9.8% 27

5 Bryson Stott 43 D +750 COOL 120 0.148 89.2 5.5% 10.0%vs LHP 393 7.7% 9.1% 10.4% 30

6 Trea Turner 43 D +525 WARM 123 0.138 88.3 5.8% 8.3%vs LHP 392 12.1% 0.0% 8.3% 40

7 J.T. Realmuto 39 D +625 WARM 148 0.133 89.7 5.2% 7.1%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 30

8 Justin Crawford 31 D — COOL 201 0.084 87.1 2.6% 3.2% 382 2.0% 0.0% 8.2% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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