TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ PIT

Neutral air · 1.01×

LAA @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph slight_out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Zach Neto conv 17 · vs Ashcraft ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 20 · vs Kikuchi → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 72

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +525 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 46

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +475 C ●●●○○

2 Oneil Cruz +400 C ●●○○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 20.5% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ COOL vs Kikuchi +475 0.226 · 91.1 · 10.6% 20.0% 20.5% F B O C 55

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Kikuchi +400 0.212 · 95.3 · 12.6% 9.1% 14.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto vs Ashcraft +525 0.194 · 89.6 · 8.6% 18.2% 15.2% F B O D 46

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Ashcraft +850 0.145 · 88.0 · 6.9% 16.7% 12.9% F B O D 37

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.071 · 86.6 · 4.9% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 28

· LAA Mike Trout vs Ashcraft +500 0.181 · 89.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Kikuchi Edge +575 0.157 · 90.8 · 10.0% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 43

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +625 0.141 · 88.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 35

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Kikuchi Edge +700 0.086 · 85.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 27

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Kikuchi Edge +950 0.086 · 86.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Ashcraft +900 0.116 · 87.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Kikuchi +850 0.128 · 86.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 48.7% FB 47.0% OFF 4.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

8.9% 13.8% 8.3% 11.6% D 46 +525

113

Mike Trout R

19.6% 15.5% 10.3% 15.7% D 44 +500

170

Vaughn Grissom R

6.3% 9.7% 2.4% 7.4% D 37 +850

185

Josh Lowe L Edge

4.3% 10.3% 4.9% 7.6% D 35 +625

202

Oswald Peraza R

6.2% 5.8% 10.0% 6.5% D 31 +900

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.5% BRK 32.9% OFF 19.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L

15.3% 8.0% 9.4% 11.9% C 55 +475

Oneil Cruz L

17.8% 17.5% 12.1% 16.7% C 55 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

121

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.7% 12.4% 7.3% 10.9% D 43 +575

181

Spencer Horwitz L

6.4% 5.4% 8.8% 6.4% D 36 +850

207

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.7% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% D 28 —

208

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.8% 4.3% 0.0% 3.0% D 28 +950

210

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.3% 1.1% 0.0% 2.0% D 27 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Kikuchi's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ashcraft fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +475 · 55

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph slight_out 74°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

74°F

6:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

7:40p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

70°F

8:40p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

9:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · slight_out

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 74°F, wind 8 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 46 D +525 WARM 94 0.194 89.6 8.6% 19.1%vs RHP 404 15.8% 18.2% 15.2% 31

2 Mike Trout 44 D +500 · 113 0.181 89.9 10.0% 21.1%vs RHP 409 13.4% 0.0% 11.1% 34

3 Vaughn Grissom 37 D +850 WARM 170 0.145 88.0 6.9% 19.6%vs RHP 391 9.5% 16.7% 12.9% 41

4 Josh Lowe 35 D +625 COOL 185 0.141 88.6 6.9% 17.5%vs RHP 392 9.3% 0.0% 8.8% 18

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D +900 COOL 202 0.116 87.1 6.4% 8.0%vs RHP 386 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% 12

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 55 C +475 COOL 38 0.226 91.1 10.6% 17.6%vs LHP 390 17.3% 20.0% 20.5% 25

2 Oneil Cruz 55 C +400 COOL 40 0.212 95.3 12.6% 40.0%vs LHP 413 22.9% 9.1% 14.9% 25

3 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +575 · 121 0.157 90.8 10.0% 15.8%vs LHP 409 10.1% 0.0% 10.4% 40

4 Spencer Horwitz 36 D +850 COOL 181 0.128 86.9 7.8% 8.3%vs LHP 395 8.9% 0.0% 6.4% 31

5 Jared Triolo 28 D — COOL 207 0.071 86.6 4.9% 5.6%vs LHP 409 2.5% 9.1% 7.4% 30

6 Nick Gonzales 28 D +950 · 208 0.086 86.1 5.0% 3.3%vs LHP 397 6.1% 0.0% 7.1% 34

7 Jake Mangum 27 D +700 COOL 210 0.086 85.6 4.3% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.3% 0.0% 7.4% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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