TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.68×

DET @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 10 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

6:10p

-6 ↑

7:10p

-5 ↑

8:10p

-4 ↑

9:10p

-3 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 18 · vs Messick ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 14 · vs Valdez → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 79

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson +575 D ●●●○○

2 Hao-Yu Lee +850 D ●●○○○

3 Dillon Dingler +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 74

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●○○○

2 Patrick Bailey — D ●●○○○

3 Travis Bazzana — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ vs Messick Edge +575 0.192 · 89.3 · 7.8% 18.2% 18.2% F B O D 46

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Valdez Edge — 0.126 · 86.7 · 4.3% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 35

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Messick Edge +850 0.151 · 89.7 · 6.6% 15.4% 9.9% F B O D 40

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Valdez Edge — 0.124 · 90.6 · 6.7% 12.5% 12.7% F B O D 39

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Valdez — 0.135 · 87.7 · 5.3% 16.7% 6.9% F B O D 38

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Valdez Edge +850 0.189 · 87.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 20.1% F B O D 41

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Messick Edge +700 0.217 · 88.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Valdez +850 0.164 · 91.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 39

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Messick +500 0.174 · 90.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 42

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Valdez Edge +575 0.143 · 89.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Messick Edge +850 0.116 · 86.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· DET Colt Keith vs Messick — 0.142 · 89.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Messick +850 0.137 · 88.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 35

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Valdez — 0.058 · 83.8 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 22

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Messick — 0.096 · 85.6 · 3.2% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.1% ← leak OFF 23.7% BRK 15.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.2% 11.5% 11.1% 12.5% D 46 +575

Dillon Dingler R Edge

11.9% 6.2% 7.8% 10.2% D 45 +700

127

Riley Greene L

15.0% 9.1% 16.4% 14.2% D 42 +500

145

Hao-Yu Lee R Edge

12.1% 3.6% 4.8% 8.6% D 40 +850

190

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.6% 1.3% 6.7% 7.0% D 35 +850

193

Colt Keith L

7.1% 3.0% 14.9% 7.4% D 34 —

199

Gleyber Torres R Edge

7.8% 4.3% 4.4% 6.6% D 32 +850

212

Zach Mckinstry L

2.9% 0.0% 1.6% 2.2% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.1% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.8% BRK 33.2% OFF 19.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

129

Angel Martinez S Edge

7.1% 13.5% 3.9% 7.5% D 41 +850

151

Chase Delauter L

7.9% 6.2% 1.5% 6.2% D 39 +850

153

Patrick Bailey S Edge

9.2% 4.0% 4.3% 6.7% D 39 —

166

Travis Bazzana L

4.9% 3.1% 2.6% 4.2% D 38 —

184

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.9% 4.1% 1.0% 3.2% D 35 —

191

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 34 +575

215

Steven Kwan L

0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Valdez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 10 mph in 71°F open

-8

↑

10 mph · in

71°F

6:10p

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

70°F

7:10p

-5

↑

7 mph · cross

68°F

8:10p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

67°F

9:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

66°F

10:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.68× 71°F, wind 10 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 46 D +575 · 92 0.192 89.3 7.8% 9.1%vs LHP 393 14.9% 18.2% 18.2% 21

2 Dillon Dingler 45 D +700 COOL 99 0.217 88.5 7.1% 12.9%vs LHP 398 17.8% 0.0% 13.0% 28

3 Riley Greene 42 D +500 COOL 127 0.174 90.4 8.4% 8.7%vs LHP 399 11.7% 0.0% 8.8% 8

4 Hao-Yu Lee 40 D +850 WARM 145 0.151 89.7 6.6% 7.7%vs LHP 399 16.7% 15.4% 9.9% 34

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 35 D +850 · 190 0.137 88.1 5.9% 6.5%vs LHP 397 18.2% 0.0% 6.7% 47

6 Colt Keith 34 D — · 193 0.142 89.0 6.0% 9.7% 385 6.3% 0.0% 7.3% 15

7 Gleyber Torres 32 D +850 · 199 0.116 86.5 5.8% 10.0%vs LHP 393 8.6% 0.0% 7.5% 34

8 Zach Mckinstry 25 D — COOL 212 0.096 85.6 3.2% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 24

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 41 D +850 WARM 129 0.189 87.7 6.8% 18.2%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 21

2 Chase Delauter 39 D +850 WARM 151 0.164 91.4 6.3% 12.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 29

3 Patrick Bailey 39 D — · 153 0.124 90.6 6.7% 11.1%vs LHP 409 7.2% 12.5% 12.7% 12

4 Travis Bazzana 38 D — COOL 166 0.135 87.7 5.3% 4.2%vs LHP 396 10.5% 16.7% 6.9% 29

5 Brayan Rocchio 35 D — · 184 0.126 86.7 4.3% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.3% 18.2% 8.9% 34

6 Jose Ramirez 34 D +575 COOL 191 0.143 89.3 5.3% 16.1%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 42

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — WARM 215 0.058 83.8 1.8% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.1% 49

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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