TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.36×

AZ @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:15p

+7 ↑

7:15p

+9 ↑

8:15p

+9 ↑

9:15p

+10 ↑

10:15p

conditions build late — the 10:15p window peaks +10

Best of game Tim Tawa conv 17 · vs Pecko ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 22 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Ethan Pecko RHP · HOU

leak 99

2.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.88 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tim Tawa +525 C ●●●○○

2 Gabriel Moreno +700 C ●●●○○

3 Corbin Carroll +350 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 96

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●●○○

2 Yainer Diaz — C ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: 11.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 7.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Pfaadt +575 0.189 · 88.4 · 7.1% 23.1% 20.9% F B O C 55

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Pfaadt — 0.165 · 88.1 · 6.5% 25.0% 18.7% F B O C 50

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Pecko +525 0.153 · 91.0 · 9.4% 15.4% 18.8% F B O C 56

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Pecko +700 0.168 · 89.3 · 8.3% 16.7% 15.9% F B O C 56

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ vs Pecko Edge +350 0.227 · 91.7 · 10.2% 7.7% 19.9% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Pecko +525 0.187 · 84.8 · 7.4% 7.7% 15.4% F B O C 55

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +245 0.284 · 94.5 · 11.3% 0.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Pfaadt +500 0.196 · 89.2 · 8.3% 8.3% 12.2% F B O C 55

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Pecko Edge +330 0.195 · 90.1 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.6% F B O C 59

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +525 0.154 · 88.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Pfaadt +575 0.173 · 89.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 10.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Pfaadt +500 0.165 · 86.0 · 6.1% 15.4% 9.9% F B O D 48

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Pecko +850 0.113 · 87.1 · 7.5% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 47

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Pfaadt +700 0.152 · 85.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Pecko Edge +750 0.115 · 87.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 43

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Pecko Edge +950 0.132 · 87.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Pfaadt +950 0.122 · 86.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 67.0% ← leak BRK 27.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Corbin Carroll L Edge

12.2% 13.2% 11.7% C+ 64 +350

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.6% 7.8% 9.9% C 59 +330

Tim Tawa R

9.7% 10.0% 10.1% C 56 +525

Gabriel Moreno R

8.0% 7.2% 7.8% C 56 +700

Nolan Arenado R

9.2% 1.7% 6.2% C 55 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.9% 8.0% 6.9% D 47 +850

115

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 2.6% 3.2% D 44 +950

119

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.6% 1.3% 2.8% D 43 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.0% usage) carries Pecko's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.7% ← leak BRK 28.8% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

16.8% 21.0% 9.1% 16.4% C+ 63 +245

Jeremy Peña R

6.4% 6.1% 9.1% 6.5% C 55 +575

Christian Walker R

7.9% 9.6% 12.5% 8.9% C 55 +500

Cam Smith R

8.7% 14.5% 15.6% 10.7% C 51 +575

Yainer Diaz R

6.4% 4.9% 6.1% 5.8% C 50 —

Taylor Trammell L Edge

19.2% 5.1% 3.6% 12.1% C 50 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

6.3% 2.8% 1.8% 4.8% D 48 +500

131

Jose Altuve R

5.6% 4.3% 0.0% 4.7% D 41 +700

169

Christian Vazquez R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.7% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Tawa Moreno Peña Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Pecko fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jeremy Peña +575 · 55

Yainer Diaz — · 50

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.13× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F retractable

↑

6 mph · slight_out

86°F

6:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

85°F

7:15p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:15p

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

9:15p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

10:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 85°F, wind 6 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ethan Pecko · RHP 2.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.88 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 64 C+ +350 · 7 0.227 91.7 10.2% 16.7%vs RHP 402 13.1% 7.7% 19.9% 35

2 Ketel Marte 59 C +330 COOL 22 0.195 90.1 9.4% 14.5%vs RHP 409 14.8% 0.0% 16.6% 8

3 Tim Tawa 56 C +525 WARM 34 0.153 91.0 9.4% 23.7%vs RHP 398 9.1% 15.4% 18.8% 28

4 Gabriel Moreno 56 C +700 WARM 35 0.168 89.3 8.3% 13.8%vs RHP 401 10.6% 16.7% 15.9% 32

5 Nolan Arenado 55 C +525 COOL 39 0.187 84.8 7.4% 21.1%vs RHP 389 14.5% 7.7% 15.4% 36

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 47 D +850 WARM 87 0.113 87.1 7.5% 9.7%vs RHP 415 4.0% 8.3% 9.4% 20

7 Ildemaro Vargas 44 D +950 COOL 115 0.132 87.5 5.3% 6.4%vs RHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 9.9% 39

8 Geraldo Perdomo 43 D +750 COOL 119 0.115 87.5 5.0% 9.9%vs RHP 383 6.3% 0.0% 10.4% 40

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ +245 COOL 8 0.284 94.5 11.3% 25.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 33

2 Jeremy Peña 55 C +575 WARM 37 0.189 88.4 7.1% 28.8%vs RHP 387 16.0% 23.1% 20.9% 34

3 Christian Walker 55 C +500 COOL 41 0.196 89.2 8.3% 23.5%vs RHP 391 16.8% 8.3% 12.2% 38

4 Cam Smith 51 C +575 COOL 58 0.173 89.1 9.1% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.3% 0.0% 10.3% 22

5 Yainer Diaz 50 C — HOT 61 0.165 88.1 6.5% 31.2%vs RHP 392 11.2% 25.0% 18.7% 24

6 Taylor Trammell 50 C +525 COOL 63 0.154 88.5 9.8% 19.4%vs RHP 413 11.9% 0.0% 13.1% 24

7 Isaac Paredes 48 D +500 COOL 74 0.165 86.0 6.1% 17.3%vs RHP 375 11.9% 15.4% 9.9% 39

8 Jose Altuve 41 D +700 WARM 131 0.152 85.4 6.0% 20.3%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 34

9 Christian Vazquez 37 D +950 WARM 169 0.122 86.0 4.1% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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